Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:09PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:00 AM CST (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 928 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am cst Saturday...
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Areas of dense fog. Chance of showers.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Areas of dense fog through the night. Slight chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 928 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis.. Onshore winds will persist until a cold front moves across the coastal waters late Saturday. The onshore winds will move warm and moist air over relatively cool shelf water, with the result being the continuation of dense sea fog through Saturday morning for the near shore waters and coastal lakes and bays.tonight as low pressure develops east of the southern rockies. Modest offshore flow will develop behind the cold front ending rain chances and sea fog for the remainder of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, TX
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location: 30.1, -93.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 221540
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
940 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Discussion
Wx map shows nearly stationary front along the SE tx coast, and
across the coastal parishes of la. North of the front, cool dense
foggy conditions, and south of the front, warmer conditions with
areas of dense sea fog continuing. For portions of the area north
of the front, the areas of dense fog expanded further northward
this morning, and not looking likely to break up until around
noon. Have expanded the dense fog advisory through the remainder
of our la parishes, and extended the time through noon.

For the coastal waters, all available guidance shows the fog not
lifting until after daybreak Saturday when the gradient winds
increase and lift ahead of the next cold front enhances
thunderstorms across the area. For this, have extended the dense
fog advisory for the 0-20 nautical mile marine zones and inland
lakes bays through 6 am Saturday.

Dml

Prev discussion issued 549 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
discussion...

22 12 z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

widespread lifr conditions are seen acrs the area this morning,
with a frontal boundary located between ara and lft, and extending
sw off the coast south of cameron. The front is expected to lift
north this morning, with winds at the lft lch bpt turning
southeasterly through 16-17z. As this happens, expect vsbys
improving toVFR and CIGS improving to MVFR. At aex, the front is
expected to move through around midday, followed by improving
conditions. Southerly winds are then expected to prevail through
the remainder of the TAF period, with intermittent -shra. Can not
totally rule out tsra, but point probabilities are too low to
carry at this time. CIGS are again expected to lower to lifr this
evening, with patchy fog at the southern terminals reducing vsbys
to MVFR ifr.

24
prev discussion... Issued 517 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
synopsis...

a potent storm system gathering strength over the southern rockies
will move eastward through the weekend and provide a roller-
coaster of conditions for the forecast area. First, cooler
conditions will be replaced by unseasonably warm and spring like
today into the first part of Saturday, then back to more
seasonable winter conditions later Saturday into the remainder of
the weekend. This system will bring some potential hazards to the
forecast area. Dense sea fog will be possible up to the i-10
corridor this morning, with the dense sea fog lingering near the
coast into Saturday morning. Also, a marginal to slight risk of
severe weather will be possible, especially ahead of a cold front
that the storm system will bring on Saturday.

Rua
discussion...

a warm front as of 22 10z was located from around new iberia
louisiana (kara) to about 40 miles south of high island texas.

This front has been quasi-stationary overnight, however looks to
be moving to the northwest again as winds have just become
southerly again at kara and temperatures and dew points are up to
the upper 60s. Typical pre-warm frontal conditions are occurring
with lowering stratus developing into areas of fog. This fog may
be dense at times, especially near the coast.

As strong upper level energy moves east across the southern
rockies a storm system and surface low will develop today. This
will allow southerly flow to increase and accelerate the warm
front to the north this afternoon. Any fog over inland areas is
expected to lift as the front moves through and wind speeds
increase. Most of the shower activity today will be ahead of the
warm frontal system. Some of the shower activity may become on the
strong side late this afternoon across northern sections of the
forecast area as favorable right entrance region of 50h speed max
intersects the leading edge of the warm frontal boundary. Most
unstable capes will be near 1500 j kg with daytime heating, and
this could lead to elevated convection over the warm frontal
boundary combining with the shear aloft to produce some small to
marginal severe hail. The storm prediction center has outlined the
area north of a line from roughly woodville to marksville as
having a marginal risk (5 percent) of severe storms. If any strong
storms develop they will diminish in the evening hours with loss
of daytime heating and speed MAX moving off to the northeast.

As the upper level storm system moves east out of the rockies it
will deepen and phase with the strong sub-tropical jet stream and
take on a negative tilt. As this system moves further east it will
trail a pacific cold front across the forecast area on Saturday
afternoon.

Low level jet will increase ahead of this cold front, and
southerly winds around 40 knots will be found at 92h. This will
help further increase the elevated moisture values across the
forecast area with precipitable water values between 1.75 and 1.90
inches during Saturday, with these values well over twice the
standard deviation and around the moving mean MAX for this time
of year. Moisture convergence ahead of the front, and favorable
divergence aloft from the increasing negative tilt of the upper
level trough, will allow widespread shower activity to form, that
will eventually form a squall line along the front.

Meanwhile, increasing southwest winds aloft will be noted with the
upper level system with 50h winds around 70 knots. This will allow
for good shear to develop across the forecast area with 0-6km bulk
values between 50 and 60 knots. With front timing in the afternoon
hours, daytime heating will help increase low level instability.

Most unstable capes will be between 1000 and 1500 j kg, with most
surface based capes around 1000 j kg, which would tend to mean
that some instability will be elevated due to the modified gulf
marine layer, and how much that modifies or mixes out will play a
big part in how strong or severe the storms will become.

With the respectable wind dynamics and shear values, the storm
prediction center has outlined the forecast area north of roughly
a beaumont to lake charles to lafayette line in a slight risk (15
percent) for severe storms and a marginal risk (5 percent) for
the remainder of the forecast area. Damaging straight line winds
and hail will be the main hazards. However, a few short lived
tornadoes can not be ruled out, especially if storms can become
discrete and or surface based, as 0-1km helicity values are over
200.

Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front, ending shower
activity, and setting up a nice Sunday with seasonal temperatures
and sunny skies.

Still some differences in the guidance as to how much return flow
moisture will move back into the forecast area early next week
before the next significant cold front moves through on Thursday.

Will keep close to the superblend numbers which keeps rain chances
for Tuesday into Thursday.

Rua
marine...

a warm front this morning as of 22 10z is located across the
coastal waters from just inland of south central louisiana to
about 40 miles south of high island texas. Typical pre-warm
frontal conditions occurring with lowering stratus causing dense
fog ahead of the front, then south winds bringing warm and moist
air over the cooler shelf waters producing dense sea fog behind
the warm front.

This warm front is expected to move north and inland during the
morning hours, leaving a light to modest southerly flow over the
coastal waters. This again will continue the problems of sea fog
especially over the near shore waters. The southerly winds will
increase later tonight, as a surface low pressure system develops
east of the southern rockies. Wind speeds may get to small craft
exercise caution criteria for the outer waters by late tonight
into Saturday morning. The winds may help lift the sea fog some,
although the potential for dense sea fog will likely linger for
the near shore waters into Saturday morning.

A cold front will move through the coastal waters on Saturday
afternoon. Modest northwest winds will develop behind the front
with the possibility of small craft exercise caution conditions
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The northwest flow will
bring in drier and cooler air to end sea fog and rain chances for
the remainder of the weekend.

Rua

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 75 65 75 44 40 50 80 0
lch 78 68 77 48 30 30 70 0
lft 79 69 79 51 30 30 80 10
bpt 75 67 75 48 30 30 60 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for laz027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.

Tx... Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for txz215-216.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 6 am cst Saturday for gmz430-432-435-
450-452-455.

Public... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 20 mi30 min ENE 4.1 G 8 56°F 57°F1016.5 hPa
BKTL1 23 mi30 min 59°F
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 27 mi30 min NE 5.1 G 6 60°F 59°F1017.5 hPa
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 28 mi30 min 57°F 59°F1016.4 hPa
TXPT2 29 mi30 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 59°F 57°F1015.2 hPa
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 30 mi30 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 58°F1015.1 hPa
KCVW 31 mi20 min ENE 2.9 64°F 64°F
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 33 mi60 min NNE 5.1 G 7 58°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.0)58°F

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX5 mi65 minENE 50.25 miFog56°F56°F100%1016.6 hPa
Southland Field, LA18 mi65 minENE 50.50 miFog58°F57°F100%1016.9 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX19 mi67 minNNE 50.25 miFog58°F55°F93%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE7NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5NE7NE7NE7NE4NE6NE6E5E8N5N5N3NE3CalmNE3NE4NE3
1 day agoN7N7N7N6N5N5NE5NE3CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4NE9E7NE7NE5NE5NE9NE14NE9
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2 days agoNE9NE11
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NE10NE8E8E10E11E7NE5N4CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmNW4CalmNW5NW5NW7N5N4N4NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas
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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:47 AM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:06 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:48 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:40 PM CST     0.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:46 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.40.60.80.90.90.80.60.30.1-0-0.1-00.10.30.50.70.80.80.70.50.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sabine Pass, North, Texas
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Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:13 AM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:06 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:46 AM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:46 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.811.21.31.31.10.80.50.20.100.10.30.60.91.11.21.110.70.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.