Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 11:48 PM   Moonset 8:45 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 317 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening - .
Tonight - Southeast winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. Sunday - Southeast winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the morning. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 317 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis - A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the southern plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow for a prolonged period of strong and gusty onshore winds to continue through Sunday afternoon. Small craft advisory for all waters continues through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will slowly subside by Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 280453 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)

Wx map shows a large surface high over the Eastern United States, an exiting surface low/mid to upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes, and another developing surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle, with the stronger deep layer mid to upper level trough across the Western U.S. Our region remains in the tight pressure gradient between the surface high to our east and surface low to the northwest.
The result, its windy out there. Along and south of the I-10 corridor, southeast winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts of 35 to over 40 mph have already occurred. Winds north of the I-10 corridor slightly less around 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph, all meeting the Wind Advisory criteria. Latest guidance continues to suggest these winds remaining steady state this evening and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens further. Thus, no changes to ongoing Wind Advisory.

Coastal flooding issues continue to increase for late tonight through Sunday. Latest P-ETSS guidance show tides will be 1.75 to 2.5 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during the times of high tide from daybreak through late Sunday morning across coastal Jefferson County and coastal Cameron Parish. These numbers expected across the shores of Calcasieu Lake, Lake Charles, and Sabine Lake from late morning into Sunday afternoon. Thus, have upgraded these area to a Coastal Flood Warning. Further east across coastal Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes, the guidance shows levels to reach 1.5 to 1.75 feet Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
during the times of high tide. Thus, kept the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory.

By late Sunday afternoon into Monday, the longwave mid to upper level trough over the west expected to approach closer to the area, with the shortwave trough moving through the area on Monday.
This will place our region in the diffluent flow aloft for late Sunday night into most of the day Monday. Thus, chances of showers and thunderstorms have increased during this period, along with expected rainfall amounts. Latest QPF expected from Sunday night through Monday night show 2 to 4 inches north of I-10, with generally 1 to 2 along I-10, and 0.5 to 1.0 inches along the coastal parishes and counties. WPC has continued Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall along and north of I-10, Marginal Risk further south on the Day 2-3 outlooks essentially spanning from late Sunday night through Monday night. Severe thunderstorm potential has increased as well. SPC has increased areas north of U.S. 190 to a Slight Risk, Marginal Risk further south, for essentially the same time period. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)

Tuesday is anticipated to remain potentially stormy across the region as residual moisture remains in place. The weak frontal boundary is expected to have lifted back north, however PWATs are still forecast to remain in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range which is around the 90th percentile for the date. These high moisture values will combine with a lack of ridging aloft and daytime heating to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms.

Very weak ridging may nudge in the area beyond mid week, however isolated to scattered diurnal convection is still anticipated along with temperatures running several degrees above climo averages.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Windy conditions will persist at all area terminals through the taf period as the region remains sandwiched between a large surface high along the east coast and a deep low centered over the central plains. MVFR ceilings will prevail this morning before improving to VFR by late morning. A slowly approaching frontal boundary will approach the region from the west this evening initializing convection across Southeast Texas after 21Z with activity expanding into southwest Louisiana by late this evening.

Jones

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between a series of lows over the Southern Plains and a surface high off the east coast will allow for a prolonged period of strong and gusty onshore winds to continue through Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for all waters continues through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will slowly subside by Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 86 68 87 66 / 10 0 20 50 LCH 84 72 84 69 / 10 0 30 50 LFT 86 71 87 71 / 0 0 10 20 BPT 83 73 82 71 / 10 0 40 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055- 073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ073- 074-241.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616.

Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ615- 616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas, Tide feet

Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Lake Charles, LA,