Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:17 PM CDT (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 938 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Friday..Northwest winds up to 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Lake waters choppy decreasing to a light chop after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 938 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis.. Strong southerly winds will persist through the night and Wednesday as a low pressure area moves eastward across texas pulling a frontal boundary through the coastal waters Thursday afternoon and evening. A brief period of offshore flow will follow the frontal passage, with southerly winds returning by Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, TX
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location: 30.1, -93.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 282349
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
649 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
Pressure gradient remains tight across the region as the new
developing surface low and frontal system becomes established
along the east slopes of the rockies this eve. This system will
move eastward with the sfc low projected to lift to the ne.

Looking for the winds to remain up over night w/ clds returning
twrds midnight and slowly falling. No problems to vsby w/ storm
actvty by the late aftn/eve timeframe. Thru midnight the problem
of the day will be winds... Aftr midnight low ceilings w/ winds
continuing to be a flight issue.VFR becmg ifr aftr midnight.

Prev discussion /issued 414 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion...

the afternoon has been spent monitoring 30 second visible
satellite images of the very strong storms developing over central
texas at this hour. The same system will be the one that brings
the potential for severe weather to our area tomorrow afternoon
and evening. Guidance is still indicating quite favorable
conditions for the development of severe storms Wednesday evening
with forecast CAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg range and 0-1
km shear 25-30 knots. There will be a bit of a cap to overcome
Wednesday, but the NAM and GFS have it washing out by late
afternoon. It's been some time since we've seen conditions look
this favorable and consistent in the forecast guidance.

Between then and now, winds will remain on the breezy side
courtesy of the tightening pressure gradient between the low over
texas and high pressure off the east coast of florida.

The front will push through the area Thursday morning bringing the
threat for severe weather to an end from west to east and ushering
in some drier, if not much cooler, air. Upper level ridging
building in behind the front will yield mostly clear skies and
pleasant conditons Friday and Saturday.

The GFS and euro are in better agreement this afternoon with
regards to the timing of the late weekend system with storms
beginning early Sunday and clearing the region early Monday. The
canadian is now the outlier keeping the upper low much further
south and lingering over the area into Tuesday. Therefore, more
credence is lent to the gfs/euro solution with regards to timing.

However, there remains dramatic differences with regards to qpf
totals between the two with the GFS still much higher (five to
seven inches) than the euro (one to two inches). Think there is
something to be said for the GFS having come down four to five
inches in the last 24 hours. That said, wpc has indicated that at
least some weight should be given to the GFS solution and higher
rainfall totals that could lead to a flash flooding situation
somewhere along the gulf coast early next week. Still plenty of
time to monitor this.

Jones
marine...

the small craft advisory has been extended until Wednesday night
as strong onshore winds associated with an approaching low
pressure area will keep winds in the 20-25 knot range and seas
five to seven feet. Small craft exercise caution has been added to
the coastal lakes and bays for gusty winds and rough lake waters
through the same time period. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Some of these
storms could become severe. The cold front will push through the
coastal waters from west to east Thursday morning turning winds
offshore.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Aex 67 81 68 76 / 10 30 80 60
lch 67 81 68 78 / 10 40 80 50
lft 71 84 73 81 / 10 10 60 80
bpt 69 81 68 79 / 10 70 70 40

Lch watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt Wednesday for gmz450-452-
455-470-472-475.

Small craft exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening for
gmz450-452-455-470-472-475.

Small craft exercise caution through Wednesday evening for
gmz430-432-435.

Aviation... 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 20 mi48 min SSE 12 G 20 74°F1010.5 hPa
BKTL1 23 mi48 min 74°F
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 27 mi48 min SE 21 G 28 74°F 76°F1011.6 hPa
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 28 mi48 min 73°F 71°F1011.5 hPa
TXPT2 29 mi48 min SE 22 G 27 73°F 75°F1010.5 hPa
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 30 mi48 min SSE 20 G 24 73°F 76°F
KCVW 31 mi33 min SE 17 G 26 73°F 72°F
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 33 mi78 min SE 17 G 24 73°F 1010.4 hPa (-0.5)71°F
KVBS 43 mi48 min S 15 G 24 73°F 73°F

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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Last
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S6
G11
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G12
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SE9
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SW6
G11
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G12
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G17
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SE7
G10
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX5 mi23 minSE 11 G 1410.00 miOvercast74°F70°F89%1011.2 hPa
Southland Field, LA18 mi23 minSE 12 G 1610.00 miOvercast74°F68°F84%1011.5 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX19 mi25 minSSE 1810.00 miOvercast and Breezy74°F69°F85%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S4S6S6S7S8S5S3CalmSE5SE7S8SE9S10S12
G17
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1 day agoS10
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SE10S8S8S8S7S8S3S6S7S7S8S12
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S13S11S7S6S5
2 days agoS3SW3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmS5S7S8S11
G15
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G19
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G15
SE13
G17
S12
G16
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G17
S8S8
G14
S8

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Orange (Old Navy Base)
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:37 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:48 AM CDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:25 PM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:45 PM CDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.40.50.60.60.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
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Rainbow Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:53 AM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:40 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.40.40.50.70.80.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.