Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 12:50 PM CST (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 857 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds after midnight. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 30 knots. Gusts to 45 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds building to 10 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds after midnight. Protected waters very rough. Rain likely.
Friday..West winds 35 knots becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 feet with occasional seas up to 22 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Protected waters very rough. Chance of rain.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 knots. Seas 9 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds subsiding to 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds after midnight. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 857 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis.. Favorable marine conditions are expected into early Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, winds and seas will be on the increase ahead of an approaching storm system. Advisory level winds are expected to begin Wednesday night. Winds and seas will build significantly on Thursday afternoon and into Friday with a period of gale conditions likely Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish quickly on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 181701
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1201 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Aviation
[through 18z Wednesday]
vfr conditions through the period with the exception of potential
MVFR in br at aby and vld in the 10-14z time frame. Have inserted
a tempo group to account for this. Winds generally around 5 kt or
less through the period.

Prev discussion [900 am est]
Near term [through today]
Any patchy fog that develops before sunrise will quickly improve
this morning. High pressure will continue to dominate today as a
surface high centered across the great lakes ohio valley region
this morning slides to the eastern u.S. Coast by this evening.

Conditions will continue to remain dry across the tri-state region
with near normal highs. Maximum temperatures this afternoon will
climb into the 60s.

Short term [tonight through Friday night]
High pressure over the mid atlantic states will move out into the
western atlantic as a storm system begins to approach the region
on Wednesday. This system will present a low-end flood risk as
well as potentially significant coastal impacts starting Thursday
as the storm system moves over the region.

Cloud cover streaming over the region ahead of the storm system
tonight will help keep overnight lows from dropping into the 30s.

Instead, temperatures in the low to mid 40s are expected over the
inland areas.

On Wednesday, as the initial southern stream wave moves across
texas and into the western gulf of mexico, extensive cloudiness
will overspread the region and surface low pressure development
will commence off the coast of louisiana. While it will take some
time for the local airmass to moisten, model guidance indicates
moist isentropic ascent across the western portions of the region
late in the day. As a result, will begin to increase pops at that
time. With all the cloud cover, high temperatures will struggle
to get out of the low to mid 60s.

As the southern stream shortwave moves up into the tennessee
valley Wednesday evening, a northern stream wave will rapidly
deepen as the pattern across the eastern CONUS amplifies. As this
larger trough digs deeper down into the gulf of mexico, a strong
surface low pressure area will strengthen over louisiana and begin
to move ne. This configuration Wednesday night and into Thursday
morning will place our region in a very favorable area for strong
forced ascent yielding widespread rain. Given that there's good
agreement in the track placement of the surface upper level
features, will increase pops to 90-100 percent from 06z Thursday
through 00z Friday.

After 00z Friday as the surface low rapidly moves up the southern
appalachians ahead of the high amplitude trough, the best forcing
for ascent shifts to the atlantic coast, with any precip
associated with wrap-around moisture on the SW side of the storm
system. Will begin to taper rain chances off at this point,
especially into the daytime hours on Friday. With the system
staying fairly progressive, expect improving conditions across the
region after 18z Friday with skies potentially starting to clear
after 06z Saturday.

As far as impacts go, there still are some subtle differences in
placement of the heavier areas of precipitation and whether any
substantial warm sector can find its way further northward into
our region. Based on the 00z guidance package, it seems unlikely
for the surface warm front to pivot up into the florida big bend.

Thus, any severe threat would be confined to the central and
southern florida peninsula.

Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially across the
eastern half of the region where better favorable dynamics tend to
suggest a greater rainfall threat. Even so, due to the fast
movement of the system, rainfall amounts should average in the 1-2
inch range with isolated maximum totals up to 3 inches.

Coastal impacts could be substantial, particularly along the
western facing. Model guidance shows a 12-18 hour period of
strong southwesterly flow Thursday shifting to west-northwest into
Friday afternoon. This should be sufficient to rapidly build up
surf heights along the florida panhandle beaches west of
apalachicola into the 7-10 ft range. These waves will be capable
of causing significant coastal erosion.

Minor coastal flooding is also possible in the southeast florida
big bend starting Thursday night and into Friday. Water levels
could rise to 1-2 feet above mean higher high water. Values in
this range typically result in flooding of boat ramps, and beach
access roads.

Long term [Saturday through Tuesday]
The long term period will be more tranquil with the large storm
system departing the southeast by Saturday morning. With no storm
systems impacting the area through the long term period, expect
conditions to be fairly typical for late december with overnight
lows in the lower 40s and afternoon highs in the mid 60s on
Sunday. A warming trend beginning on Monday will result in
afternoon highs approaching the 70 degree mark for christmas day.

Marine
Favorable marine conditions are expected into early Wednesday. By
Wednesday afternoon, winds and seas will be on the increase ahead
of an approaching storm system. Advisory level winds are expected
to begin Wednesday night. Winds and seas will build significantly
on Thursday afternoon and into Friday with a period of gale
conditions likely Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Winds
and seas will diminish quickly on Saturday.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions will not be met over the next few days as rh
values are above critical thresholds.

Hydrology
There are numerous river locations across the eastern half of the
region still in minor flood. The chipola river at altha and the
ochlockonee river near thomasville are expected to drop below
flood stage later today. Further down the ochlockonee river, water
levels will continue to rise with concord cresting just below
moderate flood stage later this evening.

Within the suwannee system, minor flood conditions are now
expected on the withlacoochee river near quitman (us-84) due to
another event above minor flood above valdosta and increased
flows moving down the little river. This in turn will result in
further rises down river into florida, though pinetta will stay
just below flood stage.

A extended period of river flooding is expected for our suwannee
river forecast points from ellaville through wilcox over the next
seven days, even before taking into account any additional
rainfall. For now, it appears that all flooding within our portion
of the suwannee basin will be in the minor category.

For the incoming system on Thursday into Friday, widespread
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is possible with isolated maximum
amounts up to 3 inches, mainly in the eastern half of the region.

These amounts should present a limited flash flood threat, but the
heavier amounts will result in our faster responding rivers
(chipola @ altha, ochlockonee, upper withlacoochee) rising into
the weekend, with minor flooding expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 69 42 66 54 66 0 0 0 90 100
panama city 65 49 66 57 65 0 0 20 100 90
dothan 66 44 62 51 63 0 0 20 90 80
albany 66 42 63 51 64 0 0 0 90 100
valdosta 67 43 66 54 65 0 0 0 80 100
cross city 70 42 70 58 68 0 0 0 90 100
apalachicola 67 49 65 59 67 0 0 20 100 90

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Godsey
long term... Godsey
aviation... Lf
marine... Godsey
fire weather... Fieux
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi50 min SW 6 G 7 61°F 60°F1020.4 hPa (-1.7)
PCBF1 10 mi50 min S 5.1 G 5.1 62°F 63°F1020.3 hPa (-1.7)
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi50 min S 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 57°F1019.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi3.9 hrsNE 710.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1022.3 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi57 minW 410.00 miFair65°F39°F39%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N3W5NW7W11W10W9W7NW4NW4N6N7N6NW5N4N5N6NW5N6N3N3N4N4NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:14 AM CST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:45 PM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.90.80.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:04 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:53 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM CST     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.9111.11.110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.