Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

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Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 11:54 PM CDT (04:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201906200930;;757482 Fzus52 Ktae 200044 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 844 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-200930- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 844 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019 /744 Pm Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019/
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Isolated showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms through the night. Scattered showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night-Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 844 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis.. Moderate southwest flow will continue through Friday with wind then lessening through the weekend as high pressure builds. Three to four foot seas Thursday and Friday will subside this weekend. Scattered showers and storms remain possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 200042
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
842 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Near term [through tonight]
A shortwave trough will continue to move east out of the area
overnight with storms already diminishing with sunset and the loss
of instability. There should be a brief break in most areas but
with pw values rising again in the early morning hours, combined
with the exiting shortwave, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will form again near the coastal regions. The
highest coverage will remain in the big bend with the consistent
w-sw flow. Didn't make any changes to the lows which will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

Prev discussion [723 pm edt]
Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
Not as much coverage of convection expected on Thursday as there
is a little bit of capping and the mid levels dry out somewhat.

There will be storms around hwvr initially along the seabreeze and
in the vicinity of any outflows from today's storms then spreading
north as the activity feels a bit of forcing from a shortwave
clipping through the tn valley. Enough instability and dape for a
cpl strong to severe cells. Activity will wane diurnally tmrw
night then refire Friday as a band of deeper mstr lingers over the
region.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Ridging really builds over the region through the weekend into
early next week. Continue to see signals that an MCS may try to
work around the ridge from the north into the i-75 corridor on
Saturday and will maintain low pops to account. Mainly dry sun-mon
although isolated diurnal storms cannot be ruled out given all the
lingering llvl mstr from recent rains. After Monday the ridge
retrogrades leaving a broad upper level weakness over the area.

This will lead to increasing cvrg of storms heading into the
middle of next week.

Aviation
[through 00z Friday]
breezy winds will diminish in the next few hours but should remain
around 5 to 10 knots overnight. Showers and storms will also
diminish and shouldn't be a threat to the terminals overnight.

Lower CIGS are possible around 9-12z but confidence is too low to
include anywhere but vld. More showers and thunderstorms possible
Thursday and have handled with a vcts for now. Tafs may also be a
little pessimistic with ceilings tomorrow so will monitor for
changes in upcoming issuances.

Marine
Moderate southwest flow will continue through Friday with wind
then lessening through the weekend as high pressure builds. Three
to four foot seas Thursday and Friday will subside this weekend.

Scattered showers and storms remain possible.

Fire weather
With recent rainfall and relative humidity values expected to remain
above critical levels, red flag conditions are not expected for the
next several days.

Hydrology
Localized very heavy rains continue to affect parts of the area
hwvr area river systems have been able to handle the runoff so
far. Drier weather is expected through the weekend across the
region.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 74 92 75 93 73 40 40 20 30 0
panama city 81 86 79 89 78 30 40 20 20 0
dothan 76 93 75 94 74 20 40 20 40 0
albany 76 93 75 93 75 20 40 30 40 0
valdosta 74 91 75 94 73 30 40 10 40 0
cross city 76 87 75 90 75 40 40 10 20 0
apalachicola 80 87 78 89 76 40 40 10 20 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 11 pm edt 10 pm cdt this evening
for coastal bay-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Ln
short term... Johnstone
long term... Johnstone
aviation... Ln
marine... Johnstone
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Johnstone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi61 min S 13 G 18 85°F
PCBF1 10 mi61 min SW 15 G 17 84°F 85°F1012.8 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi61 min WSW 9.9 G 14 83°F 85°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi59 minSSW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds83°F77°F83%1012.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi62 minS 710.00 miA Few Clouds82°F75°F79%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSW7SW9SW6SW10S9S12
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2 days agoS5CalmE5E6E4E4E4E4--SE5S7S7S11S11S12S12
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S10S9----E4E3E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:25 PM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.100.10.30.40.60.811.21.31.51.51.51.51.41.20.90.70.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:10 AM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:14 PM CDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:37 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.50.811.21.51.71.81.91.81.71.61.31.10.80.50.30.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.