Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dayton, TX
May 7, 2024 4:15 AM CDT (09:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:59 AM Moonset 6:54 PM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 317 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of sprinkles early this morning. Patchy fog early this morning.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog late.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog in the late evening and early morning.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 317 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
fetch of light to moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast early Friday morning.
fetch of light to moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast early Friday morning.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 070449 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1149 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
High humidity, gusty southeast winds, temperatures in the 80s, and widespread low/mid level cumulus rule the day on this Monday.
Capping has prevented the aforementioned cumulus from growing into organized shower/thunderstorm activity. Capping will keep PoPs low, but not necessarily non-zero. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible, especially across our northern counties.
Some runs of the HRRR today are showing thunderstorms nearing our Brazos Valley counties this afternoon. That remains to be seen but also cannot be ruled out due to weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Tonight promises to be another muggy night featuring a developing low cloud deck and patchy fog.
At first glance, tomorrow looks very similar to today. However, one key difference will be the increasing ~850MB WAA. 850MB temps are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees celsius higher tomorrow afternoon.
Diurnal mixing should allow this WAA to mix down to the sfc layer, resulting in hotter temperatures tomorrow afternoon. How hot? Many inland locations are likely to make a run for the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile, high levels of humidity will make it feel about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. Some guidance, particularly the NBM, is quite aggressive with afternoon dew points, indicating widespread values in the 75F to 77F range. If that were the case, then heat index values could be another 3 to 5 degrees hotter than currently predicted. But since the NBM is featuring a higher dew point bias today (not uncommon), we opted to mix in some "drier" guidance to tame those afternoon dew points down to 73-74F (still nasty).
Even though tomorrow's heat is technically below advisory criteria, these temperatures and dew points are quite high for early May.
Therefore, practicing heat safety is warranted. Heat safety precautions include drinking plenty of water, wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors if working or doing physical activity outside. If you think it's uncomfortable outside, so does your pet! Never leave children or pets in the car this time of year (LOOK before you LOCK).
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
You might be thinking "it's too early for it to be this hot!" as you see low 90s in the forecast through Thursday...so let's take a brief peek into the climatology (for the City of Houston). We have a high temperature of 90°F forecast for Houston on May 7th...the last time our first 90+°F day was this late was in 2018. Four out of the last five years we've hit 90+°F for the first time of the year in March/April. Our average first day of 90+°F temperatures is May 6th, so we're right around average...nut 90s are 90s so that's hot no matter what month it is. With southwesterly flow aloft persisting, 850mb temperatures will reach the 20-25°C range Wednesday and Thursday. This is around their 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS), so high temperatures in the low 90s are definitely supported. The heat itself isn't the only story...given the saturated soils from the recent rainfall, humidity values will be a bit higher leading to elevated heat index values (100-105°F). Additional moisture moves in on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (we'll get to that soon), so this is the day we're watching the closest for now for a potential early season Heat Advisory since our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & outdoor clean-up efforts).
Now about that cold front! An upper level low will traverse from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region midweek. The surface low will follow a similar east-southeastward track through the Central CONUS and drag a cold front towards Southeast TX. The cold front will be sitting on our doorsteps as early as Tuesday morning, but the parent low sits nearly stationary over the Northern Plains so there won't be much movement until the new surface low forms further south midweek. We will be in the warm sector, so there'll be plenty of shear and instability to work with. Recall our elevated 850mb temperatures though which is the source of our subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap), so any storms that attempt to develop along and ahead of the front will have to battle that. That cap is stronger the further south you go on both Wednesday and Thursday. While there is a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for portions of Southeast Texas Wednesday/Thursday, it all depends on if any convection can break the cap to tap into the elevated instability and shear. Rain chances Thursday are mainly along and north of I-10 as the front pushes through the area and we'll likely be too capped further south for any storms to make it.
Temperatures do cool down a bit post-FROPA with highs on Friday and over the weekend back into the 80s and overnight temperatures mainly in the 60s. The surface high pressure that builds in on Friday behind the front pushes eastward over the weekend allowing for moisture to return. Rain chances remain over the weekend with various shortwaves passing through, but most notably on Sunday as it appears a coastal trough will drift through the area.
Batiste
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Widespread MVFR ceilings have been spreading inland this evening, and this trend should continue overnight and on into early in the morning.
Areas of IFR ceilings along with patchy fog are possible too. Winds will start out SW in the morning then become S to SE in the afternoon.
Expecting to see low end VFR ceilings in the afternoon followed by lowering/expanding ceilings in the evening/overnight hours.
42
MARINE
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through midweek until a cold front pushes offshore late Thursday night. This persistent onshore flow will keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range and may occasionally reach 6 ft in the farshore waters. Another consequence of the moderate onshore flow is elevated rip current risks. Dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through midweek. We're also monitoring for the potential of coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around midweek during times of high tide. A cold front pushes offshore on late Thursday night bringing a period of northeasterly winds that prevail into the weekend. Showers/storms are expected to make a return over the weekend, especially Sunday, as the next system arrives.
Mariners should note that high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1149 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
High humidity, gusty southeast winds, temperatures in the 80s, and widespread low/mid level cumulus rule the day on this Monday.
Capping has prevented the aforementioned cumulus from growing into organized shower/thunderstorm activity. Capping will keep PoPs low, but not necessarily non-zero. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible, especially across our northern counties.
Some runs of the HRRR today are showing thunderstorms nearing our Brazos Valley counties this afternoon. That remains to be seen but also cannot be ruled out due to weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Tonight promises to be another muggy night featuring a developing low cloud deck and patchy fog.
At first glance, tomorrow looks very similar to today. However, one key difference will be the increasing ~850MB WAA. 850MB temps are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees celsius higher tomorrow afternoon.
Diurnal mixing should allow this WAA to mix down to the sfc layer, resulting in hotter temperatures tomorrow afternoon. How hot? Many inland locations are likely to make a run for the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile, high levels of humidity will make it feel about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. Some guidance, particularly the NBM, is quite aggressive with afternoon dew points, indicating widespread values in the 75F to 77F range. If that were the case, then heat index values could be another 3 to 5 degrees hotter than currently predicted. But since the NBM is featuring a higher dew point bias today (not uncommon), we opted to mix in some "drier" guidance to tame those afternoon dew points down to 73-74F (still nasty).
Even though tomorrow's heat is technically below advisory criteria, these temperatures and dew points are quite high for early May.
Therefore, practicing heat safety is warranted. Heat safety precautions include drinking plenty of water, wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors if working or doing physical activity outside. If you think it's uncomfortable outside, so does your pet! Never leave children or pets in the car this time of year (LOOK before you LOCK).
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
You might be thinking "it's too early for it to be this hot!" as you see low 90s in the forecast through Thursday...so let's take a brief peek into the climatology (for the City of Houston). We have a high temperature of 90°F forecast for Houston on May 7th...the last time our first 90+°F day was this late was in 2018. Four out of the last five years we've hit 90+°F for the first time of the year in March/April. Our average first day of 90+°F temperatures is May 6th, so we're right around average...nut 90s are 90s so that's hot no matter what month it is. With southwesterly flow aloft persisting, 850mb temperatures will reach the 20-25°C range Wednesday and Thursday. This is around their 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS), so high temperatures in the low 90s are definitely supported. The heat itself isn't the only story...given the saturated soils from the recent rainfall, humidity values will be a bit higher leading to elevated heat index values (100-105°F). Additional moisture moves in on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (we'll get to that soon), so this is the day we're watching the closest for now for a potential early season Heat Advisory since our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & outdoor clean-up efforts).
Now about that cold front! An upper level low will traverse from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region midweek. The surface low will follow a similar east-southeastward track through the Central CONUS and drag a cold front towards Southeast TX. The cold front will be sitting on our doorsteps as early as Tuesday morning, but the parent low sits nearly stationary over the Northern Plains so there won't be much movement until the new surface low forms further south midweek. We will be in the warm sector, so there'll be plenty of shear and instability to work with. Recall our elevated 850mb temperatures though which is the source of our subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap), so any storms that attempt to develop along and ahead of the front will have to battle that. That cap is stronger the further south you go on both Wednesday and Thursday. While there is a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for portions of Southeast Texas Wednesday/Thursday, it all depends on if any convection can break the cap to tap into the elevated instability and shear. Rain chances Thursday are mainly along and north of I-10 as the front pushes through the area and we'll likely be too capped further south for any storms to make it.
Temperatures do cool down a bit post-FROPA with highs on Friday and over the weekend back into the 80s and overnight temperatures mainly in the 60s. The surface high pressure that builds in on Friday behind the front pushes eastward over the weekend allowing for moisture to return. Rain chances remain over the weekend with various shortwaves passing through, but most notably on Sunday as it appears a coastal trough will drift through the area.
Batiste
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Widespread MVFR ceilings have been spreading inland this evening, and this trend should continue overnight and on into early in the morning.
Areas of IFR ceilings along with patchy fog are possible too. Winds will start out SW in the morning then become S to SE in the afternoon.
Expecting to see low end VFR ceilings in the afternoon followed by lowering/expanding ceilings in the evening/overnight hours.
42
MARINE
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through midweek until a cold front pushes offshore late Thursday night. This persistent onshore flow will keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range and may occasionally reach 6 ft in the farshore waters. Another consequence of the moderate onshore flow is elevated rip current risks. Dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through midweek. We're also monitoring for the potential of coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around midweek during times of high tide. A cold front pushes offshore on late Thursday night bringing a period of northeasterly winds that prevail into the weekend. Showers/storms are expected to make a return over the weekend, especially Sunday, as the next system arrives.
Mariners should note that high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 30 mi | 45 min | SSE 6G | 76°F | 76°F | 29.71 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 30 mi | 45 min | SSW 7G | 78°F | 29.68 | |||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 44 mi | 45 min | S 17G | 82°F | 79°F | 29.71 | ||
| HIST2 | 48 mi | 45 min | S 7G | 77°F | 85°F | 29.74 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 49 mi | 45 min | S 12G | 76°F | 83°F | 29.72 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIAH GEORGE BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL/HOUSTON,TX | 20 sm | 22 min | SSE 08 | 7 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 29.70 |
Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM CDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM CDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Point Barrow
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM CDT -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:17 AM CDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM CDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM CDT 1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM CDT -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:17 AM CDT 1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM CDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM CDT 1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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