Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeside, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:24PM Monday May 29, 2017 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest in the morning, then becoming east southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will remain south of the waters over the next few days...supporting a 10-15 kt west to southwest wind over the waters with 2 to 3 ft seas. A frontal system will approach the area mid-week and bring chances for Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeside, FL
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location: 30.12, -81.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 290822
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
422 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Near term through tonight
Early this morning...

surface obs indicate while there are patches of low clouds... But
very little fog being observed which is probably due from elevated
boundary layer winds. Have opted to remove fog from the early am
grids but may still have a few patches of it in a few spots. Will
have mainly patchy low clouds which will lift by mid morning.

Today tonight... A deep layer ridge across central fl will shift
northeast into the western atlantic by tonight. An MCS will pass
well to the north of the area late this afternoon eve.

However... Outflows from the feature will move into SE ga late this
afternoon which may help produce a round of scattered storms from
late afternoon into mid evening. Given the moderate amounts of
bulk shear and instability... SPC has an area in southeast
ga... Generally along and north of u.S. Hwy 82 under a marginal
risk of severe wx with damaging winds and hail the main concerns.

Otherwise expecting another hot and muggy afternoon with continued
dry conditions across NE fl. MAX temps reach the mid 90s away
from the coast with heat indices around 100. With the synoptic
flow lighter this afternoon (unlike yesterday) a seabreeze will
probably manage to get going at the coast but temps there will
still manage to reach the lower 90s.

Any storms that manage to get going across SE ga will end by
mid evening due to loss of heating and the MCS lifting to
the ne. Boundary layer winds will be lighter than this
morning which favors better chances of fog (as indicated
by the sref). Have opted to go with patchy late night and
early morning fog mainly between i-75 and u.S hwy 301 in
ne fl. Confidence low whether there will be fog in SE ga
due to the possibility of extensive debris clouds from
earlier convection.

Short term
Tuesday... A fairly complex scenario developing Tuesday as the
region will become more influenced by mid to upper level troughing
over the ERN u.S. Weak frontal zone may push gradually southward
to near the altamaha river. A piece of shortwave energy will be
moving across the lower ms valley to al and ga in the afternoon
and evening. Early on, model guidance is suggesting possible mcs
developing overnight Mon night into Tue morning. How this evolves
remains to be seen but increased debris cloud cover is likely over
se ga. We may see outflow boundaries push east to southeast into
the north zones from the MCS during the day which will help
initiate convection. Forecast instability of 2000-3000 j kg
possible with bulk shear of about 25 kt over SE ga. NAM fcst
sounding at 21z shows a SBCAPE of 3100 j kg. Isolated severe
storms look possible over SE ga. SPC has most of our SE ga zones
in a marginal risk of severe storms. Would appear primary risk is
damaging wind gusts with dcape values near 1100 j kg. Overall
weaker cap will also lead to isolated to possibly scattered
showers and storms along the east coast sea breeze in the aftn and
evening. Highs a little lower over SE ga around 90 lower
90s... But lower to mid 90s in NE fl. MAX heat indices near 100
expected. Tuesday evening... Should see isolated to scattered
showers and storms, mostly likely focused over the ERN zones and
the marine waters then pushing offshore and fading weakening after
midnight. Weak frontal zone may remain nearly stationary over se
ga.

Wednesday... Guidance shows weak low level trough diffuse frontal
boundary from around brunswick ga southwest to the northeast gulf
of mexico. This boundary may drift southward slightly during the
day. This feature along with residual boundaries from prior days
convection and pwats near 1.6 inches should be enough to kick off
scattered convection in the aftn given the increasingly moist and
unstable airmass over the region. Highs will be lower overall than
prior days due to increased clouds and precip.

Long term Thursday-Sunday ...

model 00z output continues to suggest daily summertime conditions
with a warm and moist airmass and generally weak 0-6 km wind
fields at around 10 kt or less. Initial weak sfc trough will be
located across the ga and perhaps extreme NE fl becomes much more
diffuse Fri and Sat and lifts northeast. Deep layer flow will be
weak westerly... Gradually becoming southwesterly and we will see
pwats rise to above normal by Friday. This should provide for at
least scattered showers and storms each day... Possibly numerous at
times. Temps will still be hot Thursday in the lower to possibly
mid 90s... But slowly lower a bit Friday through Sunday.

Aviation
Patchy low clouds will be across the area early this morning
producing ifr CIGS MVFR vsby at jax... Vqq... Crg... And gnv
til around 14z. May also need to amend sgj for it. Otherwise
prevailingVFR today.

Marine
Surface ridge south of the area will produce a light sw
flow the next couple of days. Afternoon seabreezes will
produce onshore winds near shore. Slightly stronger winds
may occur over the waters during the evening but conditions
expected to remain below headline criteria. A frontal boundary
will weaken and wash out across the waters towards mid week
which may increase the shower thunderstorm activity. Winds will
be variable with afternoon and evening seabreezes near the coast.

Rip currents: better chance of a seabreeze along the coast
this afternoon but swells continue to be low (less than a foot)
so have opted to go with a low risk through Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 94 70 91 70 20 20 40 20
ssi 91 74 89 75 10 10 30 30
jax 95 71 93 71 10 10 30 40
sgj 92 73 91 72 0 0 30 40
gnv 95 69 94 70 10 0 30 30
ocf 94 70 94 70 0 0 20 20

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Peterson shashy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BKBF1 6 mi41 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 76°F 81°F
JXUF1 18 mi41 min 80°F
NFDF1 21 mi41 min W 5.1 G 7 76°F 1017 hPa
DMSF1 21 mi41 min 81°F
BLIF1 23 mi41 min W 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 1017.1 hPa76°F
LTJF1 24 mi41 min 78°F 74°F
RCYF1 25 mi41 min 81°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 26 mi41 min W 8.9 G 11 77°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 32 mi29 min W 5.1 G 6 75°F 77°F1017.5 hPa (+0.7)
41117 37 mi37 min 76°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 41 mi41 min WSW 6 G 9.9 76°F 80°F1016.9 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 42 mi104 min W 1.9 75°F 1017 hPa74°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 48 mi29 min 79°F2 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL9 mi96 minWSW 59.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F94%1015.6 hPa
Jacksonville, Cecil Field Airport, FL9 mi39 minW 56.00 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1016.6 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL19 mi36 minWSW 59.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1016.5 hPa
Keystone Airpark, FL24 mi54 minWNW 33.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from VQQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W8NW9NW6
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W8W8W8W8W10SW7SW5Calm----SW6SW5SW4W3W5CalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalm444SW7W6W8W5W9W9W9W6W6----CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalm4Calm4444NW6NW12W10W7
G12
W8W433CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Doctors Lake, Peoria Point, Florida
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Doctors Lake
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Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     5.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:02 PM EDT     5.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.666.26.36.36.25.95.75.55.45.45.35.45.866.16.16.15.95.65.45.45.35.3

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River at Buckman Bridge, Florida
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St. Johns River at Buckman Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:12 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.50.60.50.30-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.