Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Callaway, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:12PM Thursday April 18, 2019 1:50 PM CDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:34PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201904182100;;112949 Fzus52 Ktae 181427 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1027 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-182100- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1027 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019 /927 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2019/
.small craft exercise caution through this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening through Saturday evening...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tonight..South winds 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet building to 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 25 to 30 knots. Gusts to 35 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Chance of rain in the evening.
Saturday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 knots becoming north 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1027 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis.. Winds turn south this afternoon with cautionary levels expected through this evening. A strong frontal system moves in overnight with additional increases in winds and seas expected. Advisory level winds and seas expected from tonight through Saturday evening. Expect winds with these advisory levels to be around 20 to 30 knots with some gusts up to 35 knots possible. Seas will also be high through this period and around 6 to 10 feet. Some Thunderstorms along the frontal system could be severe Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds and seas eventually begin to lessen through Sunday and into the start of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Callaway, FL
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location: 30.12, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 181720
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
120 pm edt Thu apr 18 2019

Aviation
[through 18z Friday]
vfr conditions at all sites will deteriorate ahead of a line with
MVFR CIGS progressing west to east. The timing of thunderstorms is
fairly confident at this time, so prevailing thunder is included.

Timing will be adjusted as needed as we get closer to the event.

After the line passes, MVFR CIGS are expected to persist for several
hours. Winds will be gusting from the south ahead of the front with
stronger winds during thunderstorms.

Prev discussion [1032 am edt]
Near term [through today]
No significant changes needed to the forecast through this
afternoon, as the warm and dry conditions will persist for a few
more hours. Overnight severe threat still appears significant as
most of the area remains in an enhanced risk area. See discussion
below for more details.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
By late this evening, a squall line will have likely developed and
will begin moving into western portions of the fl panhandle, and se
alabama. Current timing suggests this line could get into our se
alabama counties and fl panhandle counties as early as 10 or 11pm
central time (ct) and as late as 4 am ct. Locations further east
like tallahassee albany could see this line move through as early as
2am eastern time (et) or as late as 9am et. Lastly, locations
further east near valdosta and cross city should see this line
arrive as early as 6am et or as late as 11am et. We should note,
while the timing of this event is fairly uncertain, we are confident
in the threat for damaging winds in some of the stronger severe
storms with wind gusts as high as 80mph and the possibility of a few
tornadoes. The storm prediction center has placed much of the region
in an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather overnight and
into early Friday morning. This represents an increase in the threat
compared to previous outlooks for Friday morning.

With the severe threat coming in the overnight hours, it is crucial
that folks have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts overnight.

If you have a NOAA weather radio, make sure its good to go for
tonight. If you have a smartphone, make sure wea alerts are enabled
and make sure it it fully charged before bedtime. Lastly, identify
locations in your place of residence that are the lowest and most
interior so you can shield yourself should you find yourself under a
warning.

Other hazards we are anticipating with this event will deal around
coastal flooding (see hydrology discussion below), and marine
hazards (see marine discussion). For folks planning to visit the
beach on Friday, while the most dangerous of the weather will have
pushed off to the east, the gulf of mexico will be angry with surf
heights possibly as high as 5 to 8 feet through the day. It will not
be a good day to be in the water as dangerous surf will combine with
possible beach erosion and a high risk of life-threatening rip
currents.

Clouds will be slow to clear the area through Friday as some
residual moisture wrapping around the upper level low generates a
few light showers. Expect high temperatures in the low 70s on Friday
with cooler temps expected Saturday in the upper 60s. Breezy
conditions will stick around Friday into Saturday.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
By Sunday morning the deep trough over the southeast moves out and a
ridge builds in. At the surface high pressure will be over the
southeast until the next system approaches late next week. Pops will
be near zero until late next week. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s
until warming up in the 60s mid week. Highs will be in the upper 70s
on Sunday and low to mid 80s next week.

Marine
Winds turn south this afternoon with cautionary levels expected
through this evening. A strong frontal system moves in overnight
with additional increases in winds and seas expected. Advisory
level winds and seas expected from tonight through Saturday
evening. Expect winds with these advisory levels to be around 20
to 30 knots with some gusts up to 35 knots possible. Seas will
also be high through this period and around 6 to 10 feet. Some
thunderstorms along the frontal system could be severe Thursday
night into Friday morning. Winds and seas eventually begin to
lessen through Sunday and into the start of next week.

Fire weather
A line of thunderstorms will move through the region tonight and
Friday morning. High dispersions above 75 are likely today and
tomorrow. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
A strong frontal system will bring thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow morning. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected with this
system. Most local rivers are steady at this time. River flooding
and flash flooding are not expected.

However, the strong onshore flow ahead of the front will lead to
elevated waters levels in apalachee bay. With the chance for water
levels to reach above 3 ft mhhw Friday morning, have issued a
coastal flood watch for the coastal big bend. The timing of the
front relative to the Friday morning high tide will largely modulate
the risk, so more confidence is expected as we approach the evening
on Thursday.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 67 74 48 70 45 50 90 10 10 0
panama city 66 69 52 68 52 90 50 20 0 0
dothan 63 67 46 67 44 100 60 10 10 0
albany 66 70 48 66 45 80 100 10 10 0
valdosta 66 73 48 67 45 20 90 10 10 0
cross city 67 75 52 69 47 0 90 20 10 0
apalachicola 67 72 52 68 51 60 70 30 10 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
for coastal dixie-coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-
coastal taylor-coastal wakulla.

High rip current risk through late Saturday night for coastal
bay-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory from 8 pm edt 7 pm cdt this evening to 2 am
edt 1 am cdt Saturday for coastal bay-coastal gulf-south
walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 8 pm edt 7 pm cdt this evening to 8
pm edt 7 pm cdt Saturday for apalachee bay or coastal
waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20
nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton
beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to
apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach
to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl
from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Dobbs
long term... Mcd
aviation... Skeen ln
marine... Dobbs
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 19 mi39 min SE 15 G 18 72°F 73°F1013.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 41 mi33 min SSE 13 G 16 73°F 73°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL4 mi1.9 hrsSSE 17 G 239.00 miFair78°F68°F73%1014.5 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL21 mi58 minSE 15 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F60%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS16S14S16S12S11S9S6SE3CalmE3E5SE6E3SE5SE5SE7SE8SE10SE16
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1 day agoSW11SW10SW10SW9SW5SW6S4S4CalmCalmCalmN3N4NE3CalmE3E5E4E5SE11S15
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2 days agoNW11NW10N8
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N10N9N8N6N5N4NE3N4N5N3N4N3CalmCalmNE5E8E8E7SE8SE4SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
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Thu -- 12:59 AM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:39 AM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:26 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.70.70.70.70.80.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
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Thu -- 04:25 AM CDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:02 PM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.80.80.70.70.60.50.40.30.30.20.30.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.