Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parker, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday April 27, 2017 1:43 PM CDT (18:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft should exercise caution today...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 1003 Am Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis..Winds are gradually subsiding over the coastal waters this morning. However...on and off cautionary level winds are still expected through Saturday...before another increase to advisory conditions is expected on Sunday into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parker, FL
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location: 30.13, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 271351
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
951 am edt Thu apr 27 2017

Near term [through today]
Broken line of thunderstorms is currently approaching the forecast
area from the west ahead of a cold front. With upper support
lifting rapidly to the northeast, only slow eastward progress of
this activity is expected through the afternoon, with the front
stalling over the far northwestern portion of the forecast area.

While low-level and deep layer shear are forecast to be marginal
by this afternoon, sufficient instability will be present to
support isolated severe storms across portions of SE alabama and
sw georgia. The main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail, with the highest threat primarily north
and west of a line from geneva to albany.

Have left the forecast for the northwestern CWA largely unchanged.

However, with forcing becoming more limited with time, have
lowered rain chances for the southwestern half of the forecast
area, including tallahassee and valdosta. It seems unlikely that
these areas will see any rain today.

Prev discussion [649 am edt]
Short term [tonight through Saturday]
The aforementioned cold front will pull up and stop somewhere very
near the tri-state intersection by this evening. At that point,
deep layer ridging will build in across the region from the south
as the shortwave continues to lift into canada. Deep layer return
flow will force the cold front back north and west out of the
region. With cloud cover expected to be plentiful overnight, lows
will have trouble falling below 70 degrees. Highs warming into
the 90s both Friday and Saturday will set the stage for the
seabreeze circulation, though with a dry mid/upper level airmass
being advected into the region, showers and isolated storms should
remain few and far between as well as being relatively shallow.

For now, rain chances remain around 10% each afternoon.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
A strong shortwave will move through the southern plains through
Saturday night, the mississippi valley through Sunday night, and
across the great lakes region through Monday night. The associated
cold front and convection will reach our alabama and florida
panhandle counties around Sunday night, exiting the southeast big
bend sometime Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This system
is expected to be a potent severe weather producer across the gulf
states over the weekend. The timing of the front into our region
will be an important factor as to whether severe weather would be
anticipated locally. A late night arrival on Sunday would starve
the system of much needed instability. Though if it slows down or
speeds up much, instability could be more favorable and line up
with modest lapse rates, strong low and deep layer shear, and
favorable hodographs. Stay tuned as this system draws nearer.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry, before another
system brings rain chances to the region again by Thursday. Highs
will begin the period above average and then become closer to
normal from Monday through Thursday.

Aviation [through 12z Friday]
MVFR-ifr CIGS and gusty winds from the south continue across the
area. A line of storms across central al will lift north as it
heads eastward, so TS are only expected near ecp, dhn, and aby,
although isolated convection will be possible further east. Cigs
may lift briefly during the day, but are expected to fall to ifr
levels later tonight after the line of storms exit.

Marine
While sustained advisory conditions are expected to subside by
early morning, frequent gusts over 20 knots will warrant keeping
the advisory in place into the afternoon. Thereafter, on-and-off
cautionary level winds should be expected through Saturday, before
another increase to advisory conditions is expected on Sunday into
Monday.

Fire weather
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the period, so no red flag conditions are expected. Strong
winds from the south will cause high dispersions across the area
this afternoon, especially across southwest georgia.

Hydrology
Average rainfall amounts with today's storms are expected to be
around a half of an inch or less, with isolated amounts between
1-2" inches in stronger storms. These totals should also remain
confined along and northwest of a line from albany through destin.

Early indications are that average amounts with our next system
late in the weekend/early next week could range from 1-2" with
isolated higher amounts. These values appear as though they'll
mostly be confined along and west of a line from albany through
tallahassee. River levels remain quite low, with ensemble guidance
not indicating any river flooding across the region over the next
7 days. Even though ensemble guidance is using the lower end of
the QPF envelope, the higher end estimates likely would not
result in much more than action stage along our most sensitive
rivers. Thus, at this time flooding is not a concern over the next
week or so.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 86 71 90 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
panama city 78 73 83 71 83 / 20 20 10 10 10
dothan 83 71 88 68 90 / 50 30 20 0 10
albany 87 71 89 68 91 / 40 30 20 0 10
valdosta 87 70 92 69 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
cross city 86 70 92 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
apalachicola 81 73 83 71 83 / 10 10 10 10 10

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for coastal
waters from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from
apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Moore
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Moore
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 3 mi44 min S 17 G 25 77°F 75°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)
PCBF1 15 mi44 min S 14 G 16 75°F 75°F1011.8 hPa (+0.0)
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 44 mi44 min SSW 15 G 19 76°F 75°F1011.9 hPa (-0.4)
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 46 mi59 min S 13 79°F 75°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL4 mi48 minS 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1011.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL18 mi51 minS 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast80°F72°F76%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S11S13
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S14S11S9S8S13S12S13
1 day agoSW5SW8SW8W11W7W9SW10SW6W6SW6W5SW5W4SW4SW6SW5SW6S3S3S8S10S13S11S13
2 days ago--NW17N10
G16
--NW12
G16
N6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW3NW6NW5NW3N3CalmCalmN3E4W4W8

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:09 PM CDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.50.60.80.911.21.41.51.61.71.71.61.51.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:03 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:57 PM CDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.80.911.11.21.41.41.51.41.31.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.