Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 3:55 AM   Moonset 4:04 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 943 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet late this evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

GMZ500 943 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through mid next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 040455 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall, forecast is in decent shape, although may push an update just to remove evening low end PoPs from northwest corner of the CWA Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids to reflect current trends, but not adjusting overnight lows at this time.

There is at least a small threat of fog over southwest Mississippi overnight for a few hours, but we've already got a mention of fog there. Not enough confidence to justify an advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernible on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms
Looking at same area of impact
SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Most terminals are VFR at issuance time, but KGPT and KASD have developed BKN018 ceilings over the last hour. There is certainly some low level moisture around after the rainfall Friday afternoon, but the question will be whether we end up with fog or stratus again toward sunrise, as has been the question the last few nights.

Multiple MCS to our west from the northern Plains to the Rio Grande River, with cirrus spreading this way, but thinning as they approach. Dew points are about 5-8 degrees lower than they were 24 hours ago, but so are temperatures. For now, the expectation is that stratus near FL010 will be the main occurrence at most terminals, with the exceptions being KMCB and KHUM where TEMPO LIFR conditions will be carried around sunrise.

Expect MVFR ceilings at most or all terminals at mid morning Saturday as cumulus field develops, but could see improvement to VFR at midday. Threat of SHRA/TSRA appears to be lower on Saturday, but some models carrying a weak shortwave that could trigger scattered cells, with the "most" favored terminal KMCB.
That's the only one we'll carry a mention for now. Anything that does develop should dissipate toward sunset, with the same cycle anticipated overnight tomorrow night.

MARINE
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Long Point
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Sat -- 03:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:21 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:06 PM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:32 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Bay St. Louis
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Sat -- 03:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 AM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:33 PM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:24 PM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

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