Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 1:22 AM   Moonset 11:34 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 358 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog late. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 358 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots will be in place through the weekend as the area remains on the southwest periphery of a broad high pressure system centered over the southeast.

FXUS64 KLIX 302326 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 626 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A fairly strong mid to upper level ridge axis will remain in firm control of the area through Wednesday night. Ample subsidence in the mid-level will lead to warmer and drier conditions aloft, and this will help keep a mid-level capping inversion and weak mid- level lapse rates in place. The end result will be a proliferation of fair weather cumulus development tomorrow, but PoP values will be at 5 percent or less through the entire short term period. Temperatures will be warmer than average due to the deep layer subsidence in place, and have highs climbing into the upper 80s over inland areas and the low to mid 80s along the coast. These values are around 5 degrees above normal. Onshore flow in the low levels will also keep dewpoints elevated, and this will result in overnight lows only dipping into the 60s tonight and tomorrow night. NBM deterministic values were used for temperatures.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A series of weak and fast moving shortwave troughs will ride up and over the mid to upper level ridge axis from Thursday through Monday. Most of the strongest forcing associated with these troughs will remain displaced to the north of the CWA, but enough cooling and forcing aloft should support the development of some isolated to scattered convection each day. Initially, the ridge will still be the most dominant feature over the area on Thursday, and this will greatly limit convective potential as mid-level lapse rates remain weak at around 5.5 C/km. The main impact from this system will be an increase in high level cloud cover and slightly cooler daytime highs in the mid 80s. The only area that may see an isolated shower or storm pop up will be in areas to northwest of Baton Rouge where just enough cooling aloft could help weaken the cap and allow for deeper updraft development.

Friday will have the highest convective potential over the area as another shortwave trough slides through the region. This trough will be stronger than the one on Thursday, and will break down the ridge axis more efficiently. The result will be a weaker mid-level capping inversion, steeper mid-level lapse rates of around 6.0 C/km, and higher convective potential over the forecast area.
There will be a north to south gradient with the highest PoP values for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor where scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could develop. To the south, more isolated convective activity is expected as the ridge axis will be more pronounced. PWATS also increase to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches, and this will support some locally heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour with the deepest convection. The convection will be fairly progressive in forward motion, so any flood threat will be limited. Fortunately, wind shear will also be very limited on Friday, so strong to severe thunderstorm activity is not expected. The increased convective activity and cloud cover will keep temperatures near average in the lower 80s. The convective threat will quickly end Friday evening as the shortwave moves to the east and the deep layer ridge axis rebuilds back over the area.

Rain chances decrease over the weekend and into early next week as the mid to upper level ridge axis becomes more dominant and the ridge riding shortwave troughs shift more toward the mid- Mississippi Valley. At most, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern third of the CWA on Saturday as the ridge continues to reassert itself, but dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday. As the ridge builds in, temperatures will rise in response to the increased subsidence aloft, and expect to see daytime highs climb a good 10 degrees above average into the upper 80s and possible the lower 90s by Sunday and Monday. Persistent onshore flow in the low levels will keep dewpoints in the 60s and lows will be warmer than average in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions currently at all terminals. Only forecast issue is whether there is fog development around sunrise Wednesday. When looking at current dew points vs. forecast overnight lows, the main concerns for very low conditions would be primarily at KGPT and perhaps KHUM where higher dew points have arrived on sea breezes. Will carry 3SM at most terminals for several hours, but confidence in LIFR isn't as high, with NBM probabilities of less than 1SM only running 15-25 percent. Any fog that does develop should burn off/mix out by 14-15z.

MARINE
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

No significant weather concerns are expected for the maritime zones through the end of the week. A persistent southeast flow of around 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through the weekend on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the Southeastern CONUS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 89 64 85 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 64 89 67 86 / 0 10 0 20 ASD 65 87 66 85 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 68 85 70 84 / 0 10 0 10 GPT 67 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 65 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Long Point
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Tue -- 01:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:28 AM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:35 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:23 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
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Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

Grand Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet

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