Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pearlington, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:53PM Sunday September 24, 2017 9:41 PM CDT (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 9:59PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 351 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight, then becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 351 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis..A weak inverted trough is expected to move across the northern gulf through tonight, then high pressure is expected to rebuild over the central gulf coast region Monday through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to push through the region Thursday and Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearlington, MS
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location: 30.14, -89.48     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 242107
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
407 pm cdt Sun sep 24 2017

Short term
A broad area of low pressure in the upper levels will linger over
the area through Tuesday while also gradually weakening over the
next couple of days. The main impact from this upper level low
will be continued deep moisture transport into the forecast area
as noted by precipitable water values of around 2 inches both
today and tomorrow. The increase in upper level lift associated
with the low over the region, and the increase in available
moisture will allow for higher than normal rain chances through
tomorrow afternoon. The highest rain chances tonight will tend to
be in the eastern coastal waters and along the immediate
mississippi coast where the deepest pool of moisture, greatest
instability, and strongest omega values are expected to reside.

Given these parameters, have likely pop of 60 to 70 percent in the
forecast for the eastern coastal waters tonight. Tomorrow will see
a similar pattern as seen today with showers and thunderstorms
spreading onto the coast in the morning and then developing over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. Have similar pop values
for tomorrow afternoon as those today with pop of 40 to 50 percent
in the forecast. The convection tomorrow should tend to develop
along outflow boundaries that push further inland through the day.

Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s tomorrow afternoon, and lows only cooling into the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tuesday will see a bit less convective coverage as the upper level
low begins to weaken dramatically. A resultant decrease in upper
level forcing should result in less overall convective potential
Tuesday, but continued high precipitable water values of around 2
inches should keep a risk of at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday. The pattern will be
similar to Monday with offshore convection moving inland on the
back of outflow boundaries through the morning and afternoon
hours. Temperatures will remain well above average with highs near
90 and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Long term
The upper level low will completely dissipate by Wednesday and a
strong shortwave ridge will develop over the area. This strong
ridge will remain in control of the area through Thursday. With
increased subsidence and dry air advection taking hold, a strong
capping inversion in the mid-levels will develop. This strong cap
will effectively suppress any convective potential both Wednesday
and Thursday, and do not have any mention of pop higher than 10
percent in the forecast. At most, some scattered fair weather
cumulus clouds could form beneath the mid-level cap. The increase
in subsidence throughout the column will allow temperatures to
further warm into the lower to possibly middle 90s both Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons.

A shortwave trough sliding through the midwest and toward the
eastern seaboard on Friday will suppress the upper level ridge
over the gulf south, and also allow for a weak front passage and
subsequent northeast flow regime to develop over the forecast
area. This front will tend to be moisture starved with low
precipitable water values lingering over the region on Friday, and
expect only a slight increase in cloud cover as the front moves
through. Weak cold air advection should develop on the back of the
northeast flow pattern by Friday evening, and expect to see lows
Friday night dip into the middle 60s at most locations.

Over the upcoming weekend, the models indicate that another fast
moving shortwave trough axis should move through the lower
mississippi valley. However, the exact timing of this system and
the strength of said system has some discrepancies between the
models. At this point, have opted to use a blend of the model
solutions for the weekend. This results in a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the approaching
shortwave feature by Sunday. Temperatures will remain closer to
average over the weekend with highs in the middle 80s and lows in
the lower to middle 60s both Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation
PrevailingVFR conditions can be expected at all of the terminals
through the forecast period. However, scattered convection could
briefly impact the terminals especially from 15z through 00z
tomorrow. Have included vcts wording to reflect this risk. If
convection moves over a terminal, a brief period of MVFR
visibilities and ceilings could take hold. 32

Marine
Benign weather conditions are expected over the coastal waters
away from any thunderstorm activity that forms over the next
couple of days. A prevailing east-southeast wind of less than 10
knots and seas of less than 2 feet can be expected through
Thursday. A weak front should slide through on Friday resulting in
a shift to a more northeast wind, and an increase in winds to 10
to 15 knots. Seas could also increase to around 3 feet in the open
gulf waters as these stronger offshore winds develop. 32

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 68 88 68 89 20 30 20 30
btr 69 88 70 89 20 40 20 30
asd 69 87 69 87 40 50 30 30
msy 74 86 74 87 30 50 30 40
gpt 70 85 71 87 50 50 30 30
pql 68 86 68 88 50 50 30 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi42 min NNE 8 G 8.9 74°F 84°F1013.5 hPa (+0.5)
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 17 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 71°F 1014 hPa (+0.8)69°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 21 mi42 min E 8 G 9.9 79°F 86°F1012.9 hPa (+0.3)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 34 mi42 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 80°F 84°F1012.9 hPa (+0.4)
CARL1 38 mi42 min 80°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS16 mi47 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F68°F94%1013.5 hPa
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA23 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NE4Calm44SE9E10E7SE10SE9E8--E7NE14
G22
NE7Calm
1 day ago------------------Calm--CalmCalmE4E4----E9E9----CalmN8--
2 days ago------------------------------------S5S6--SE4Calm--

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:09 AM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:33 PM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
111.11.11.1110.90.80.70.60.50.50.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Pearlington, Pearl River, Mississippi
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Pearlington
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:01 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:08 PM CDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.31.41.41.51.41.41.31.210.90.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.80.80.911.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.