Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 5:37 AM   Moonset 7:31 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1003 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - West winds around 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Saturday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1003 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through Wednesday. Winds will briefly increase to 15 to 20 knots ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. After the front moves through, winds will shift to the north and northeast and decrease in speed to 10 to 15 knots on Friday and Saturday. Seas will generally be between 1 and 3 feet over the period, but will briefly increase to 3 to 5 feet on Thursday.

FXUS64 KLIX 071724 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1224 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low stratus is still a "thing" if you will this morning as very rich low level moisture continues to stream northward from the Gulf. In fact, last hour the dew point had increased to around 74F here at ASD, so naturally low stratus isn't far behind, especially this time of year with such a rich boundary layer in place. The low stratus deck will begin to lift the moment insolation occurs later today.

A somewhat weak H5 ridge across the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf will help warm most of our region well into the 80s again today and wouldn't be surprised if several locations such as BTR metro reach 90 degrees. The cooler spots will be along the Mississippi Gulf Coast where onshore flow will help moderate these areas just a bit right along the immediate coastline as SSTs are still a tad on the low side (enjoy that Mississippi folks while you can). Otherwise the pattern will evolve to a more active southwesterly flow aloft. That said, any shortwave or impulse within this flow looks to stay to our north and a cold frontal boundary begins to hang up within the mean flow across the ArkLaTex and points northeast toward the Cumberland Plateau and lower Sequatchie Valley of east Tennessee. As heights and thicknesses continue to rise through the end of the short term period, expect temperatures to respond with much of the area again reaching at the very least 90 degrees (again outside of the immediate coast). (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Long term picks up where the short term drops in terms of. Again, heights and thicknesses will continue to slightly increase on Thursday, which should be our warmest/hottest day as high temps rocket into the lower to middle 90s for most of the region. This along with plenty of low level moisture around could cause heat index values to rise close to or in excess of 100F on Thursday.
During the overnight Thursday and into Friday night an amplifying Canadian trough over the eastern half of the US will begin to move a surface cold front toward our region. The front looks to clear the region from NW to SE Friday morning or early Afternoon. We'll need to watch for some severe potential with this given the moderate instability. Although wind shear will be a bit on the lackluster side, cannot rule out at least some severe weather potential. Also, keep in mind that depending on the orientation of any prior QLCS, cold pool dynamics may also force the front through a tad earlier, which could limit the overall window for severe weather albeit not a limiting factor overall for severe weather.

CAA will occur, although CAA will likely be offset by sun angle and insolation given the calendar. However, temps in the upper 70s or lower 80s is much better, which should make for an AMAZING weekend ahead. The area should remain under mostly dry northwest flow, at least briefly. Going into the start of the new workweek next week things get a bit tricky in terms of global solutions.
The front that passes through the region on Friday stalls to our south...well to our south. However, globals show a more robust upper level impulse dig over the Texas Hill Country and eventually help develop showers and storms along the front as it gradually lifts back northward ahead of this feature. The question is how far north does the front lift ahead of this impulse? And will isentropic upglide be enough to keep some mention of POPs to start the workweek? With this package yet again, the medium range is a bit on the low confidence side for now given model differences with some being fairly large. (Frye)

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Moist boundary layer conditions will continue through the entire forecast period, and this will keep a scattered to broken deck of strato-cumulus ranging between 2000 and 3000 feet in place through the afternoon hours. Later tonight, mainly between 08z and 14z, another weak inversion will form within the boundary layer. The development of this inversion will allow for lower stratus of 1000 to 1500 feet to develop at the majority of the terminals. However, at MCB, further stratus build down could occur due to a stronger inversion layer, and period of IFR ceilings ranging from 300 to 800 feet is in the forecast between 09z and 13z. Increased thermal mixing after 15z will allow the stratus deck to mix back out into the scattered to broken MVFR deck much as seen today.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low CIGs will eventually lift through the day to VFR conditions later today. Southerly surface winds will slightly increase with a few gusts close to 20kts or so. This should decrease and become less gusty after decoupling around sunset. Additional low CIGs will again develop alter tonight with MVFR conditions anticipated for most if not all terminals. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Locally moderate winds will continue across the MS Sound and tidal lakes through today. This will allow the continuation of cautionary headlines. Eventually, winds gradually get a bit stronger, which may require SCA headlines late Wednesday and into the day on Thursday as the low level flow increases ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. Behind the frontal passage early Friday, expect winds to shift to an offshore flow. Remaining moderate, there could be a need for Cautionary Headlines or lower-end SCA before winds improve going further into the weekend. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 71 90 71 89 / 0 10 10 30 BTR 75 93 76 94 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 73 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 76 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 74 86 75 88 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 72 88 74 90 / 0 0 0 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Long Point
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Tue -- 05:37 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:13 PM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
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Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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