Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Panama City, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 6:35PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:09 PM CDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 10:23PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 958 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots early, becoming variable less than 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of rain in the evening.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Friday..Variable winds less than 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 958 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis.. After a moderate surge in east winds early this morning, winds and seas will quickly diminish this afternoon as the pressure pattern across the region becomes extremely weak. Low winds and seas will continue through much of the work week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panama City, FL
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location: 30.15, -85.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 251609
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1209 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Update
Forecast remains on track for a warm early autumn day with
scattered showers over our offshore waters and more isolated
showers along the coast.

Prev discussion [645 am edt]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a trough is over the lower mississippi river
valley and a ridge is over the northeast and mid-atlantic. At the
surface weak high pressure is over the eastern u.S. Hurricane maria
is well offshore east of south carolina. Continued northeasterly
flow is bringing slightly drier air in the lower levels. Showers and
thunderstorms will be fairly isolated today with the best chance in
the florida panhandle and southeast alabama counties (up to 35
percent pop). Elsewhere pops are in the 10 to 20 percent range this
afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The strong deep-layer ridge, currently over much of the eastern
conus, will be replaced by a trough by Wednesday, as some of the
upper vorticity from the trough currently over the rockies gets
absorbed into the main westerlies over southern canada. Our forecast
area will remain far to the south of any meaningful pressure height
gradients, and generally beneath a very broad area of slightly lower
heights aloft.

In the absence of large scale forcing, deep moist convection will
depend on mesoscale forcing and favorable thermodynamics. To that
end the environment does not appear favorable, as the mid
troposphere becomes progressively drier and warmer, greatly limiting
the buoyancy needed for convective updrafts. Daytime mixing will
lower dewpoints to at least the mid 60s, further retarding potential
updrafts. If convection does form, it will be limited to the
northwest fl coast, where the sea breeze front will get pinned by
the orthogonal 1000-700 mb mean wind, or perhaps across our eastern
zones as the east coast sea breeze front approaches. The model
consensus pops for these areas are only about 20%, which seems
reasonable. Calms winds and a slightly drier airmass will allow
temperatures to cool to the mid 60s tonight, which is still a few
degrees above average for this time of year. Otherwise temperatures
will be above average with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows
in the lower 70s.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
An amplified (but fast-moving) upper trough over the eastern conus
late this week will eventually help drive a surface baroclinic
trough into our forecast area this weekend. However, with the jet
stream still far to the north and the upper trough lifting out so
quickly, the baroclinic trough will likely just stall across our
region. Weak q-g forcing and modest deep-layer moisture with this
system support 20 to 30% pops Friday through Sunday, with the
highest values across our fl zones where moisture and CAPE will
be a little more plentiful. Temperatures will be above average
Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the
lower 70s. Highs will be near average this weekend and Monday (mid
80s), while lows a little above climo (65 to 70).

Aviation [through 12z Tuesday]
Vfr conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Showers and
thunderstorms will be fairly isolated this afternoon with the best
chance in the florida panhandle and southeast alabama counties.

Northeasterly winds will be light.

Marine
After a moderate surge in east winds early this morning, winds and
seas will quickly diminish this afternoon as the pressure pattern
across the region becomes extremely weak. Low winds and seas will
continue through the week.

Fire weather
Afternoon dispersion indices may be below 20 today and Tuesday.

Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Organized heavy rain is not expected across our forecast area this
week, and our local rivers were below flood stage.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 89 67 91 70 93 20 10 10 0 10
panama city 86 69 87 73 89 30 10 10 0 10
dothan 87 64 90 68 92 20 10 10 0 10
albany 88 64 90 68 92 10 10 10 0 10
valdosta 89 64 90 68 91 10 10 10 0 10
cross city 89 66 91 70 91 10 10 10 0 10
apalachicola 85 69 87 73 89 20 10 10 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Moore
near term... Mcd
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Mcd
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 0 mi52 min E 4.1 G 6 83°F 82°F1014.5 hPa
PCBF1 12 mi52 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 1014.4 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 47 mi52 min ESE 6 G 8.9 80°F 80°F1014.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 49 mi85 min E 8 83°F 74°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi74 minE 87.00 miA Few Clouds82°F73°F76%1013.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL16 mi17 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F67%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5N3--W3W3N4CalmCalmN3N3NE3NE4NE5E5E5E5E5E3NE4NE4NE5NE5E8NE3
1 day agoE8E8E8E5NE6NE5CalmNE3N3E5E8E5NE3E4E5NE5NE6NE4NE7NE6NE7NE7E6NE5
2 days agoNE7SE4NE4SW8SW8SW5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5E4E4NE6E5NE5NE7NE6E5NE9E6

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:37 AM CDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.51.51.51.41.31.110.80.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.911.21.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:37 AM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.71.71.61.51.31.110.80.60.60.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.911.21.31.41.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.