Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Panama City, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:39PM Friday July 28, 2017 11:57 AM CDT (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 949 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night through Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 949 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will likely increase to cautionary levels Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front approaches the region. Expect 15 to 20 knot winds out of the southwest, with seas of 2 to 4 feet. Winds will subside Sunday, showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day, with stormy conditions likely Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panama City, FL
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location: 30.15, -85.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 281347
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
947 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Update
Radar is fairly quiet this morning with only a few showers over
the gulf and in dixie county. Pops line up well with the high-res
models showing convection mostly in north fl into SW ga this
afternoon. Only minor tweaks were made to the forecast.

Prev discussion [630 am edt]
Near term [through today]
This evening's subjective surface and upper-air analyses showed a
fairly strong ridge across much of the central conus, and a trough
over the east, though the lowest heights (and strongest westerlies)
were in the northern states and canada. A weak trough in the 850 to
500 mb layer was centered along the northeast fl coast. As this
feature dissipates today, the 1000-700 mb mean wind will back from
north to more of a westerly direction, allowing the northwest fl sea
breeze fronts to develop and move inland a little more quickly than
the past few days. Several of the cams bring a weak surface wind
shift (i.E. An outflow from convection currently across northwest
al) into central al and ga later this afternoon, perhaps being a
trigger for isolated new cells in the northwest portions of our
forecast area.

While deep-layer moisture will be marginally supportive of deep
moist convection to begin the day, some of the nwp models forecast
it to gradually increase this afternoon, especially around
tallahassee and valdosta. The wettest of the guidance, the normally
reliable ecam, has 50 to 60% pops in this region this afternoon, but
pops of less than 20% elsewhere. The MOS consensus pops are only 20%
across our entire region, presumably due to persistence of the drier
air aloft. Our forecast is a compromise of the 2 scenarios, with
near climo pops (40%) across much of the fl big bend and south
central ga, and 20-30% elsewhere. The synoptic environment does not
appear favorable for organized severe storms, but an isolated "pulse
severe" storm or two can not be ruled out. High temperatures will be
in the mid 90s.

Short term [tonight through Sunday]
The story of the short term period will be the advancing cold front
associated with the deepening upper level low traversing the ohio
valley into the mid-atlantic region. This feature will yield
organized convection across the entire region on Saturday ahead
of the front. Operational model guidance continues to indicate an
environment conducive for a few strong and efficient thunderstorms
across the region. Though instability will be sufficient, bulk
shear values will likely approach 20kts at the most. This along
with poor mid level lapse rates will keep any threat for severe
weather minimal. Apart from the threat for isolated gusty winds,
these storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers, as the
atmosphere will rapidly moisten with the approach of the front
(pwats of 2"+). Though showers and thunderstorms are expected to
remain progressive through the day, locally heavy rainfall could
cause some instances of nuisance flooding, particularly in urban
and poor drainage areas. With widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage expected, afternoon highs will remain limited to the
upper 80s north to near 90 south on Saturday.

Rain chances will gradually diminish from north to south from
Saturday evening through Saturday night, with shower and storm
chances lingering in the vicinity of the stalled front on Sunday.

Drier air is expected to filter into much of the region for Sunday,
yielding mostly clear and hot conditions, as afternoon highs are
expected to rebound into the low to mid 90s. Slightly cooler
conditions will be possible in the far eastern big bend, where more
moisture is currently expected to linger. Overnight lows will range
in the low to mid 70s both days.

Long term [Sunday night through Friday]
Operational model guidance continues to swing the trough axis
through the tri-state region Sunday, allowing much drier air to
advect into much of the region. As typical for this time of year,
the cold front is expected to dissipate across the northeast gulf
of mexico northern florida peninsula, keeping deep layer moisture
and chances of showers and thunderstorms across the far eastern
big bend into early next week. The upper low over the mid-atlantic
region will lift northward Monday and Tuesday, with upper level
flow locally becoming more zonal and beginning the gradual trend
of deep layer moisture advecting back into the region. By
Wednesday, pops will once again range from 30-50% across much of
the region. Temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s
to lower 90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows.

Aviation [through 12z Saturday]
Scattered tsra will develop this afternoon across the fl big bend
and south central ga, affecting ktlh and kvld with brief periods
of MVFR vis cigs. OtherwiseVFR conditions will prevail.

Marine
Winds and seas will likely increase to cautionary levels Saturday
and Saturday night as a cold front approaches the region. Expect 15
to 20 knot winds out of the southwest, with seas of 2 to 4 feet.

Winds will subside Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day, with stormy conditions likely Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
A cold front will yield organized chances for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. While these storms are expected
to progress through the region on Saturday, they will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates at times. While widespread flooding
is not expected, isolated nuisance flooding will be possible,
particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. Overall rainfall
amounts of 2 inches or less are expected, with locally higher
amounts possible under any storms yielding high rain rates.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 94 72 90 74 93 40 10 70 50 20
panama city 90 76 87 76 91 20 10 50 50 10
dothan 94 71 87 70 91 20 30 80 20 0
albany 94 72 86 71 90 20 30 80 20 0
valdosta 93 71 91 72 93 40 10 70 50 20
cross city 91 72 90 74 90 30 10 30 70 70
apalachicola 90 75 90 76 89 20 10 40 60 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Weston
near term... Fournier
short term... Pullin
long term... Pullin
aviation... Fournier
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Pullin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 0 mi40 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 87°F 88°F1015 hPa
PCBF1 12 mi40 min W 9.9 G 11 85°F 1015 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 47 mi40 min SSW 6 G 8 87°F 86°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi62 minW 810.00 miFair89°F76°F67%1014.8 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL16 mi65 minW 510.00 miFair90°F75°F62%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W7W11W12W10W10W13SW5W7W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W5W3W8
1 day agoW3W6W8W9W12W13W12W9NW8NW5N3CalmN9N5N5N3CalmCalmN3NE3E4CalmCalmW3
2 days agoW9
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W11W12NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmN4N6NE4CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:46 PM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:24 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.90.90.90.9110.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:55 AM CDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:56 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:17 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:24 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.60.60.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.