Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 8:30 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1035 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning - .
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late this morning and afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1035 Am Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure well to our northeast and a deepening surface low along the lee side of the rockies is helping build winds across the local waters. A surface low will develop today and deepen as it moves across the plains and into the upper mississippi valley on Sunday. Additionally, the high over the western portions of the atlantic will slide south and become centered east of the carolinas. This should maintain or even strengthen the gradient across the area leading to additional strong southerly winds. This will keep small craft advisory conditions in place through Sunday night. Also, the persistent southerly flow will produce a large fetch across the gulf with seas likely higher than typical as long swell develops.

FXUS64 KLIX 271744 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong moisture loading into the stalling frontal systems in the foothills and plains causing strong spring breezes over our area is quite normal for this time of year before the easterlies win out and we move into the heat of summer. But while the westerlies are still active, we can still get some strong storms due to this battle. With the systems stalling to the west and the upper level troughing not making much advance, we will see these winds continue and possibly get a bit stronger. The normal dance of stronger winds over marine areas at night and over land during the day will also continue. Land gusts overnight should give a clue to what the sustained wind speeds will be during the daylight hours once mixed out. Some of these numbers are in the 18-23kt range this morning, so to see some sustained winds in and around 20-25mph with gusts to 30mph will be a good possibility today and possibly Sunday. We will post a wind advisory for today mainly for the frequent gusts 25+mph. The other headlines will remain as posted. Water levels will rise with these consistent winds and levels 1-2ft above normal levels should be the result. We will also bring precip numbers up a bit for the Pearl River and Mississippi coastal areas for Sunday. There is some evidence that as the trough out west budges just a bit farther east by tonight into Sunday that it will squeeze the western periphery of the sfc high to the east. This should cause a really good sfc convergence area over the gulf into our area for Sunday. This should be able to promote at least some showers during the early morning hours Sunday and possibly some deeper showers and even a strike or two of lightning with heating Sunday. The NBM mean is not showing this very well so it has been manually added to the fcast.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This story will get old as fronts move as far east as Dallas and stall only to retrograde. This activity will continue to orphan the line of sh/ts that develop along the front. The line moves a bit farther east then dissipates as support is taken away. This will change a bit by Monday. Another line of sh/ts will move away from the frontal support but will not meet the same demise as the others.
The support will come from the H3 jet from the upper trough to our NW coupling with the strong almost zonal flow coming across the EastPac into Mexico and over the gulf. This will set up a strong split flow at H3 near our area and will move east with time Sun night and Monday. The upper trough will not move much farther east than the Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday. This means that as the area of divergence aloft moves east, it will eventually become weaker as it moves east of the Miss/Ala state line. And in turn, since this will be the support for the sh/ts that area moving east Monday, the sh/ts will also begin to weaken and decay. No frontal passage with these storms but they will offer some temporary cooling as they cold pool out. This could give our area some much needed rain as well. But we will need to get closer to this time frame to see how much. This frontal dance to the west will continue into the foreseeable future but the front may actually become oriented more zonally over Arkansas by the end of the upcoming week. This doesn't change a lot here, but sh/ts could move away from this front and give us a chance of rain from time to time by late next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs will persist throughout the period with more VFR in the daytime hours and MVFR this evening and overnight.
Very breezy conditions(~15G25KT) will exist for all terminals today and tomorrow. Unlike most nights when winds relax, they are unlikely to weaken much as the pressure gradient remains tight.

MARINE
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will remain over all marine areas through at least the next few days if not more. Small craft advisories have been extended for this reason. There will be some gusts to gale force, but this should be the rule most of the time. But this will be a high end advisory for all waters. Winds will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should ease just a bit as we move through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 82 66 81 / 0 20 10 80 BTR 69 88 71 86 / 0 10 10 80 ASD 67 83 68 84 / 0 20 0 50 MSY 71 84 71 85 / 0 10 0 60 GPT 69 80 69 81 / 0 30 0 30 PQL 66 82 66 84 / 0 20 0 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-070-076- 078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Chandeleur Light
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Sat -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:35 PM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:29 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chandeleur Light, Louisiana, Tide feet

Horn Island Pass
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Sat -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:43 PM CDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:50 PM CDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Horn Island Pass, Mississippi, Tide feet

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