Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:09PM Friday March 24, 2017 3:10 AM CDT (08:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 3:52PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 948 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 am cdt Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 948 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..A storm system developing in the great plains will produce strong onshore flow from this evening through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240459
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1159 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation
Pretty decent low level winds to maintain good visibility but a
marine layer deck that may lower to ifr briefly around sunrise
before lifting to MVFR levels. Convection develops to the west of
the terminal locations during the day and start impacting kbtr and
kmcb toward the latter portion of the valid period. The remaining
locations will have organized convective onset in subsequent hours
to be included in the 12z issuance. 24/rr

Prev discussion /issued 424 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from
a deep 996mb low over the central plains to northwest louisiana
to florida parishes to mississippi coastal waters. Surface flow
was generally southeast parallel to the frontal zone. Surface
dewpoint readings were in the mid to upper 50s northeast of the
boundary except mississippi coast with values in the lower 60s off
the sound. Dewpoint values were in the 60 to 67f southwest of the
boundary.

Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast gulf of
mexico to the great lakes region and developing closed low over
the four corners region. Isotach at 250mb initialized jet MAX of
130 knots on the base and front side of the wave/low.

Short term...

deep surface trough/low over the central plains will begin to dive
east southeast through Friday. Strong jet MAX off the southern
rockies will allow the system to entrain dry air. This will
tightened the moisture axis along the disturbance ahead of the
closed low. Surface base CAPE values will increase across the
west zones Friday afternoon with values 300 to 500 j/kg. However,
the most of the lift will occur Friday night into Saturday. As a
result, will maintain slight chance of convection Friday
afternoon.

Low level southeast to south flow and southwest flow aloft will
increase 0-3km helicity values 250 to 400 m/s Friday evening
through early Saturday mainly across the north half of the
forecast area. Isolated storms that will have a chance to yield a
tornado will likely occur when the initial convection moves east
into northwest zones around midnight Friday night. CAPE values do
increase with values of 700 j/kg across southwest mississippi to
1500 j/kg along the louisiana. With the upper level disturbance
rotating southeast through the forecast area Friday night a few
storms may contain damaging winds and hail. 500mb temps may dip
to -17f across northwest zones early Saturday behind the
disturbance. As a result, a few storms may contain hail. As for
now, damaging winds and hail storms are the main threat and
isolated tornadoes as a secondary threat due to the small timing
window.

Long term...

with no true frontal passage over the weekend, low level moisture
will remain in play. However, mid layer moisture will be pushed
east provide a break on Sunday. A short wave will rake across the
north zones on Monday yielding a few storms, and few of these
storms could be strong but below severe limits.

Meanwhile in the latter part of the forecast, a very strong
system will approach the lower mississippi valley late Wednesday
into Thursday. While 7 to 8 days away, the pattern does support a
round of strong to severe across the forecast area late next week.

Aviation...

vfr conditions will continue at all of the terminals through 00z.

However, an area of MVFR ceilings around 2000 feet will begin to
advect into the area between 00z and 06z. Kgpt will see ceilings
develop closer to 00z while kbtr should see ceilings develop
closer to 03z. These ceilings should then persist through the
remainder of the forecast period. Southerly winds will also
increase by 12z tomorrow with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots
and gusts over 25 knots possible. 32
marine...

surface low will continue to deepen over the central plains and
tightened the pressure gradient. Will maintain small craft
exercise caution headlines for this evening. Winds are expected to
increase to 20 knots over extreme eastern waters after midnight.

The remainder of opening waters will see wind speeds increase to
20 to 25 knots on Friday. Will issue a small craft advisory to
cover this hazard. Mariners should also be aware of the potential
for one or more lines of thunderstorms to move through the waters
late Friday night into Saturday. Likely to be a prolonged period
of southeast or south winds over the waters through at least
midweek next week, outside of thunderstorms. 18
decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... None.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and/or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 63 77 65 75 / 10 20 70 70
btr 64 80 67 78 / 10 20 70 60
asd 66 77 67 78 / 10 20 20 70
msy 66 79 68 78 / 10 20 20 70
gpt 67 75 66 73 / 10 20 10 70
pql 64 74 64 74 / 10 20 10 70

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz557-575-577.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz536-570-
572.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz575-577.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz570-572.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42067 - USM3M02 8 mi150 min SE 18 G 19 70°F 5 ft1024 hPa67°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi40 min ESE 12 G 16 69°F 1024.2 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 16 mi40 min SE 11 G 15 70°F 1023.4 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi40 min 70°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 17 mi40 min ESE 8.9 G 12 70°F 1023.2 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 18 mi40 min 71°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 21 mi85 min SE 15 70°F 1025 hPa67°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi70 min SE 19 1023.4 hPa (-0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 33 mi40 min SE 18 70°F 1023.7 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi40 min SSE 15 G 18 70°F 71°F1022.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi70 min SE 18 G 22 70°F 1023.8 hPa (-0.6)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi40 min SE 24 G 28 69°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 42 mi70 min SE 26 69°F 1023.4 hPa (+2.0)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 49 mi40 min SE 13 G 19 69°F 70°F1024.8 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 49 mi80 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 70°F 1023.4 hPa (-0.9)67°F

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi12 minSSE 1310.00 miOvercast70°F66°F89%1023.3 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi17 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast70°F64°F82%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E6NE6NE5NE5E6E9SE9SE12SE11SE14SE16SE17
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1 day agoNW3W4CalmNW3NW7N8N10NW8N5N8N6SW11SW9SW13W11SW10CalmCalmCalmNE5NE3NE3NE4NE6
2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5W4SW12SW14SW16
G21
SW15SW16SW12
G20
SW14SW12SW7SW8SW6W5CalmW3W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Horn Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:51 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.20.30.50.60.70.80.9111.21.31.31.41.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.