Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 2:54 PM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1029 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1029 Am Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through mid next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 031347 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 847 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 835 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Mosaic radar shows an MCS tracking east across the southern half of Louisiana. Reflectivity and lightning strikes have been steadily decreasing over the last couple hours, indicative of weakening. CAMs and global models in agreement on this solution.
Even as it weakens, still expecting much of the local area to see rainfall as this feature spreads east. Therefore, have modified hourly rain chances to account for this.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The land of MCS's. These disturbances are going all over the lee side of the Rockies this morning and have been for a while. Another weakening one is moving up from southern TX this morning with another area that is starting up this morning over the NW gulf. The weakening one will help with providing outflows to this new area of development today. The old 850mb trough near the coast is still hanging tough although weak and this trough is somewhat mirrored at the sfc. This will provide an interface for this activity to begin developing along today and this should start this morning.
This MCS type feature that develops eastward should collapse by late morning or around noon spreading a strong outflow in all directions over our area. This will help get other storms developing as well. But what it will do is move some moderate to strong winds(wake low) over the area again. At the moment, this looks to be in the neighborhood of up to 40mph weakening with time. Several variables do support the possibility of an isolated severe storm with this MCS today but they are not at alarming levels. CAPE values are not even close to being an issue so not a lot of volatility to take advantage of. The problem is cloud cover that should start to yield overcast skies by sunrise or after.
There is no advective component of CAPE, so it would have to be through heating. Saturday on the other hand, will show a bit less activity for our area, this will be due to a cold front moving south from the high plains causing things to flow northward including our weak coastal troughiness.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday will see this front to the north stall quick over Oklahoma and Arkansas with a sfc low and attendant front move along it dropping another trough(not a synoptic cold front as there is no air mass diff) into the gulf south. This will help gets sh/ts activated once again. This front gets sent back north Monday and remains well north through mid week. Another frontal system will orient along the plains states meridionally or at least roughly so. This is the same as what we have been seeing for the last month, so back to the same processes that were occurring. There is a hint that a strong arctic cold front may actually make it to the gulf coast by the end of next week. The word arctic is a bit misleading as temps would be greatly modified behind it this time of year and only drop highs from the upper 80s/low 90s back to low to mid 70s.
But that is not the issue with a frontal system like this, this would be more of a problem with severe storms and flooding. That is if it even reaches the gulf coast. But since this is far out on the horizon, we will simply need to wait it out to see what changes or remains the same.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This will lift into VFR levels later this morning. There is enough of a chance for each terminal to get a TSRA or two today so this will be timed in the 12z taf set. There could be some low cigs again tonight mainly north but most should see MVFR to IFR again overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall synoptic view will be an onshore flow with light winds.
But today could see another MCS feature get started to the west and develop along the coast to the east before collapsing by late morning. This could cause some strong winds to move over the marine areas as another wake low feature forms today. There is no indication that this same type of feature will form Saturday so the light onshore flow should commence. This should be the case each day through mid next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 86 65 84 / 30 30 10 40 BTR 69 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 30 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 20 10 0 20 MSY 72 87 72 86 / 20 10 0 20 GPT 70 85 70 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 68 87 67 86 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Fri -- 04:33 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
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Fri -- 02:55 PM CDT     Moonset
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