Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 11:52 AM   Moonset 1:15 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 946 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - West winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Friday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 946 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
winds will become more west to southwesterly and decrease to less than 10 knots through the afternoon today. Southerly component to light winds remains intact through midweek but becomes more easterly with time by later in the week.

FXUS64 KLIX 141040 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 540 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

stretching the gale warning out to 8am but also taking a few zones down to advisory as winds are beginning to ease to the west but refuse to lower for most waters to the east.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for the entire area. Some lingering rainfall will still occur this morning but rates and amounts will not be enough to keep the watch going.

Wake depression(low) still keeping winds quite elevated this morning. Most of this is over marine areas and this is quite common as overland areas have rain cooled and become quite stable with a low level inversion cutting wind speeds down considerably. The rain is also pulling east and the only area that will see another small amount of rain will be Jackson Co. There could be some left over light rain around after daybreak but this will also move east. Cloud cover will hand on until around late morning to noon but clearing should be quick afterwards. We will then transition into somewhat lower dew pts this morning and maintain those conditions for the next few days. A cold front will also actually move through and stall over the gulf tonight into early Wed and also remain over the gulf through Wed night.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thursday, this front will begin to move back to the north. This front can be seen best via dew pt gradients. This frontal interface will be the area that the next system will begin to use to develop our next bout of rain. The warm front moves inland and stalls along and NW of coastal Mississippi by late Thu. Models are in disagreement on timing of this system, but they agree on the overall synoptic picture. The upper troughing to the west will help make this all possible again just like the issue we just came out of.
Another short wave will exit the base with upper split flow continuing downstream. This is almost a diddo of what just occurred with some minor tweeks in placement. The main theme with this one will also be rainfall, but again, this complex of storms will also have the potential for severity as well. We will just have to get closer to the event to resolve the smaller details.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Cigs will lift from IFR this morning to MVFR and finally to VFR levels by late morning or noon today. There is a chance of getting a abit more -RA for some of the eastern coastal locations this morning but this will also be moving east. Clearing skies should be moving in shortly after going to VFR cig levels.

MARINE
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will hold the Gale warning through 6am and bring these conditions down to advisory until mid morning before allowing all flags to drop. Winds will slowly shift from SW to NW by Wed morning as a cold front stalls over the northern gulf. A sfc high will rapidly move in and east of the area Wed causing this stalled boundary to begin moving back to the north for Thu causing return flow once again and a rise in wind speed through the end of the week. Another strong disturbance could impact the coastal waters by the end of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 60 86 63 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 88 65 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 88 65 90 67 / 30 0 0 0 MSY 87 70 90 72 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 86 66 90 67 / 40 0 0 0 PQL 86 65 90 64 / 60 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-550- 570.

Gale Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538- 552-555-557-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534- 536-538-552-555-557-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-570.

Gale Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534-536-538-552- 555-557-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534-536- 538-552-555-557-572-575-577.

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Horn Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

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Tue -- 01:15 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:39 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:30 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
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