Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
May 8, 2024 6:30 PM CDT (23:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 6:01 AM Moonset 8:26 PM |
GMZ750 Expires:202405090445;;860787 Fzus52 Ktae 081943 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-090445- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024 /243 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024/
This afternoon - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: west 4 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday - Northeast winds around 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-090445- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 343 pm edt Wed may 8 2024 /243 pm cdt Wed may 8 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 343 Pm Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis -
a high pressure ridge will extend from from south of bermuda across the florida peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of 5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15 knots as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late Friday as the front pushes through. Saturday, we'll be post front. Winds remain slightly elevated, but decreasing while seas slowly subside. High pressure briefly holds through Sunday.
a high pressure ridge will extend from from south of bermuda across the florida peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of 5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15 knots as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late Friday as the front pushes through. Saturday, we'll be post front. Winds remain slightly elevated, but decreasing while seas slowly subside. High pressure briefly holds through Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 082035 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 435 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The gusty winds will calm down this evening and the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will fall to the low 70s. More clouds will filter in during the overnight hours. Patchy fog may be possible but not expected to be widespread as it has been for the past couple of mornings.
For Thursday: The upper level ridge over the Gulf will flatten through the day as mid-level perturbations traverse east over Alabama and Georgia ahead of a strong cold front. Our northernmost counties will likely see thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Thursday afternoon and evening is expected to be quite active as the environment will be favorable for severe weather.
Instability will be elevated with CAPE ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 35-45 kts and steep lapse rates.
These parameters will be conducive to strong to destructive wind gusts (up to 75 mph), large hail, and a few tornadoes. The storm mode looks to approach the region as a squall line moving south through the afternoon hours and evening hours.
Because of these threats, the SPC has upgraded the risk for our northern AL and GA counties (Tifton, GA to Enterprise, AL) to an Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon through the night. From that line down to I-10, these areas are included in a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather. The threats are the same, but the amount of coverage for this area is less from numerous storms to scattered storms. South of I-10 to the coast is in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. There is also a heavy rain threat for our northwest counties, hence the WPC highlighted the area in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The Enterprise, AL to Dawson, GA line has a forecast PWAT greater than 1.75". The northern most part along that line is clipped into a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. PoPs for Thursday afternoon range from 30-60 percent for areas north of I-10. South of I-10 has about a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Timing of storms:
We expect an overall three rounds of storms for Thursday afternoon, the second round happening Thursday night into Friday, and the third happening around daybreak Friday.
Round 1 storm timing will begin around 12pm ET for our northern counties in AL and GA, moving south during the afternoon through the evening. Round 2 will have the greatest risk for severe storms, which will be discussed in the short term.
Not everyone will see showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, so temperatures are still expected to rise to the low 90s, as storms are not expected until the late afternoon. Heat indices for areas around the I-75/I-10 corridor will be in the upper 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The main story will be the potential for severe weather. The D2 forecast from SPC added an Enhanced Risk for severe weather from about Berrien Co GA to Coffee Co AL northwards, south of that line, a Slight Risk of severe weather to about I-10, with a marginal risk dipping down into the the coastal counties and most the FL Big Bend. The situation is a one-two punch for severe weather. The first round could be an MCS dropping into SW GA from the north which is talked about in the near term. Then we have the main event Thu night into Friday where we could have a squall line come through. This is expected to be the larger event where we could see numerous severe storms capable of producing damaging and potentially destructive winds, large hail, and even embedded tornadoes. There is the potential for a third event / squall line Friday afternoon which will be dependent on boundaries and prior convective systems.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
We will be post frontal by Saturday with high pressure building in for the weekend. Northerly winds will usher in cooler air to the region, placing highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the GA and AL counties, and in the low to mid 80s in FL. The reprieve in temperatures will continue overnight with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s for most of the region. Warming returns on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
By early next week the pattern looks to change and become wet again. Another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the potential for severe is once again present as well as the threat for heavy rain. We'll have to see how this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back for updates.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
VFR cigs are expected to prevail at most TAF sites through tonight. Overnight, low stratus will fill into the region with MVFR and IFR cigs expected through mid morning. Conditions are expected to improve slightly by the afternoon. For the afternoon hours, we are expecting possible showers and thunderstorms to develop over our northernmost counties affecting the DHN and ABY terminals. Although, most of the convective activity is expected after 18z Thursday.
MARINE
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of 5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15 knots as we move through the middle of the week.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late Friday as the front pushes through. Saturday, we'll be post front. Winds remain slightly elevated, but decreasing while seas slowly subside. High pressure briefly holds through Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Wetting rains and severe storms are expected for our northern GA districts Thursday afternoon through Friday. All regions are expected to receive a wetting rain from early Friday through the afternoon. Along with the rain; gusty, damaging winds are expected in thunderstorms, with large hail, and possible tornadoes.
Outside of rain and thunderstorms, high dispersions are expected for Thursday afternoon for areas south and east of the storms. So, along the I-75 corridor will have dispersion indices around 75 units.
Mixing heights will be around 4000 feet.
The cold front will pass through during the day on Friday, shifting the winds northerly by Friday night. Dispersions will increase to about 60-70 units with the front on Friday afternoon for our northwestern most counties. Elevated dispersions are expected for Saturday afternoon with northerly winds and dry conditions. The MinRH for Saturday will be around 35-40%.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The forecast generally remains on track with a Slight Risk clipping our extreme northern counties in AL and GA for Excessive Rainfall with a Marginal Risk extending from Ben Hill Co in GA to Geneva Co in AL. For Friday, the Marginal Risk is expanded south clipping most of the CWA Moisture looks to be bountiful with PWATs around 2 inches or so. The main concern looks to be with flash flooding if storms move slowly or train.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 93 72 85 / 10 20 30 80 Panama City 75 86 73 83 / 20 20 30 70 Dothan 73 90 70 83 / 10 50 50 80 Albany 72 92 69 84 / 10 50 50 80 Valdosta 71 92 72 85 / 10 30 40 90 Cross City 69 87 71 85 / 0 10 20 80 Apalachicola 75 83 73 82 / 10 10 20 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 435 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The gusty winds will calm down this evening and the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will fall to the low 70s. More clouds will filter in during the overnight hours. Patchy fog may be possible but not expected to be widespread as it has been for the past couple of mornings.
For Thursday: The upper level ridge over the Gulf will flatten through the day as mid-level perturbations traverse east over Alabama and Georgia ahead of a strong cold front. Our northernmost counties will likely see thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Thursday afternoon and evening is expected to be quite active as the environment will be favorable for severe weather.
Instability will be elevated with CAPE ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around 35-45 kts and steep lapse rates.
These parameters will be conducive to strong to destructive wind gusts (up to 75 mph), large hail, and a few tornadoes. The storm mode looks to approach the region as a squall line moving south through the afternoon hours and evening hours.
Because of these threats, the SPC has upgraded the risk for our northern AL and GA counties (Tifton, GA to Enterprise, AL) to an Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon through the night. From that line down to I-10, these areas are included in a Slight (2 of 5) risk for severe weather. The threats are the same, but the amount of coverage for this area is less from numerous storms to scattered storms. South of I-10 to the coast is in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. There is also a heavy rain threat for our northwest counties, hence the WPC highlighted the area in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The Enterprise, AL to Dawson, GA line has a forecast PWAT greater than 1.75". The northern most part along that line is clipped into a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. PoPs for Thursday afternoon range from 30-60 percent for areas north of I-10. South of I-10 has about a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Timing of storms:
We expect an overall three rounds of storms for Thursday afternoon, the second round happening Thursday night into Friday, and the third happening around daybreak Friday.
Round 1 storm timing will begin around 12pm ET for our northern counties in AL and GA, moving south during the afternoon through the evening. Round 2 will have the greatest risk for severe storms, which will be discussed in the short term.
Not everyone will see showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, so temperatures are still expected to rise to the low 90s, as storms are not expected until the late afternoon. Heat indices for areas around the I-75/I-10 corridor will be in the upper 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The main story will be the potential for severe weather. The D2 forecast from SPC added an Enhanced Risk for severe weather from about Berrien Co GA to Coffee Co AL northwards, south of that line, a Slight Risk of severe weather to about I-10, with a marginal risk dipping down into the the coastal counties and most the FL Big Bend. The situation is a one-two punch for severe weather. The first round could be an MCS dropping into SW GA from the north which is talked about in the near term. Then we have the main event Thu night into Friday where we could have a squall line come through. This is expected to be the larger event where we could see numerous severe storms capable of producing damaging and potentially destructive winds, large hail, and even embedded tornadoes. There is the potential for a third event / squall line Friday afternoon which will be dependent on boundaries and prior convective systems.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
We will be post frontal by Saturday with high pressure building in for the weekend. Northerly winds will usher in cooler air to the region, placing highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the GA and AL counties, and in the low to mid 80s in FL. The reprieve in temperatures will continue overnight with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s for most of the region. Warming returns on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
By early next week the pattern looks to change and become wet again. Another shortwave looks to move across the northern Gulf states with our region possibly being impacted on Tuesday as winds turn to being southeasterly. With this shortwave possibly moving overhead, a stationary boundary to our south, left behind from the previous system, and a low-level wind field again around 30-45 kts, the potential for severe is once again present as well as the threat for heavy rain. We'll have to see how this progresses over the next few days to have better confidence, be sure to come back for updates.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
VFR cigs are expected to prevail at most TAF sites through tonight. Overnight, low stratus will fill into the region with MVFR and IFR cigs expected through mid morning. Conditions are expected to improve slightly by the afternoon. For the afternoon hours, we are expecting possible showers and thunderstorms to develop over our northernmost counties affecting the DHN and ABY terminals. Although, most of the convective activity is expected after 18z Thursday.
MARINE
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes of 5-10 knots will slowly increase to moderate southerlies around 10-15 knots as we move through the middle of the week.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with north-northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week, with 2-4 feet seas building late Friday as the front pushes through. Saturday, we'll be post front. Winds remain slightly elevated, but decreasing while seas slowly subside. High pressure briefly holds through Sunday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Wetting rains and severe storms are expected for our northern GA districts Thursday afternoon through Friday. All regions are expected to receive a wetting rain from early Friday through the afternoon. Along with the rain; gusty, damaging winds are expected in thunderstorms, with large hail, and possible tornadoes.
Outside of rain and thunderstorms, high dispersions are expected for Thursday afternoon for areas south and east of the storms. So, along the I-75 corridor will have dispersion indices around 75 units.
Mixing heights will be around 4000 feet.
The cold front will pass through during the day on Friday, shifting the winds northerly by Friday night. Dispersions will increase to about 60-70 units with the front on Friday afternoon for our northwestern most counties. Elevated dispersions are expected for Saturday afternoon with northerly winds and dry conditions. The MinRH for Saturday will be around 35-40%.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 344 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The forecast generally remains on track with a Slight Risk clipping our extreme northern counties in AL and GA for Excessive Rainfall with a Marginal Risk extending from Ben Hill Co in GA to Geneva Co in AL. For Friday, the Marginal Risk is expanded south clipping most of the CWA Moisture looks to be bountiful with PWATs around 2 inches or so. The main concern looks to be with flash flooding if storms move slowly or train.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 93 72 85 / 10 20 30 80 Panama City 75 86 73 83 / 20 20 30 70 Dothan 73 90 70 83 / 10 50 50 80 Albany 72 92 69 84 / 10 50 50 80 Valdosta 71 92 72 85 / 10 30 40 90 Cross City 69 87 71 85 / 0 10 20 80 Apalachicola 75 83 73 82 / 10 10 20 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 5 mi | 43 min | S 12G | 82°F | ||||
| PCBF1 | 7 mi | 43 min | S 12G | 78°F | 83°F | 29.85 | ||
| APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL | 52 mi | 43 min | SSW 8G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.87 | ||
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 54 mi | 91 min | SW 6 | 82°F | 29.92 | 74°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPAM TYNDALL AFB,FL | 12 sm | 35 min | S 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 73°F | 74% | 29.85 | |
| KECP NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTL,FL | 13 sm | 37 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 73°F | 74% | 29.84 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:54 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM CDT -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:54 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:01 AM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM CDT 1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 PM CDT -0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM CDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Northwest Florida,
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