Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Upper Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:09PM Thursday October 18, 2018 9:06 PM CDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 955 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 10 knots decreasing to around 5 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 20 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Sunday night..East winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 955 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis.. Easterly winds over the coastal waters tonight will increase this evening and range between 15 and 20 knots overnight. Seas will range from 1 to 2 feet in the near shore waters with moderate chop in the bays, and 2 to 3 feet from 20 to 60 nm. Winds and seas tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions for small craft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Friday morning. Light winds and seas are forecast for Friday night and Saturday. A strong cold front will pass through the coastal waters Saturday evening with scattered showers and Thunderstorms along with a sharp increase in north winds and seas behind the front. This should result in small craft advisory conditions Saturday night through Sunday night as moderate winds and seas persist. Winds and seas gradually diminish through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.17, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 182328
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
728 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Update
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

Aviation [through 00z Saturday]
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. A
period of MVFR ceilings is possible across the area from late
tonight through the mid-afternoon hours on Friday.

Prev discussion [505 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
Surface high pressure will remain centered over the ohio valley
tonight as middle and upper level ridging persists over the northern
gulf coast. Easterly low level flow behind a westward moving
inverted surface trough will advect higher low level moisture into
southeast alabama, southwest georgia, and the florida big bend
tonight, which should keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer as
compared to last night. Low temperatures will range from the lower
60s north of interstate 10, to around 70 degrees along the coastal
florida big bend.

The low level moisture advection combined with increasing weak
isentropic ascent over the residual shallow surface boundary near
the coast and the westward propagating inverted surface trough
should support development of stratus later tonight through Friday
morning across mainly southeast alabama, southwest georgia, and the
florida big bend region.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
Models remain in reasonable agreement and consistent in slowly
shifting the deep layer ridge over the region southward Friday and
Friday night as the upstream cold front advances from the
northwest. Generally mild and dry conditions should continue
through early Saturday with temperatures trending well above
normal for this time of year. A cold front will move across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and out over the gulf by early
Saturday evening. A band of deep layer moisture along this
boundary coupled with the projected strong low to mid level
forcing will be enough to support a good chance of showers and
perhaps a slight chance thunderstorms though instability will be
limited. This system will be fast moving with only relatively low
rainfall totals anticipated... Generally less than a 1 4 inch.

Drier and cooler air will rapidly follow in the wake of the front
with breezy northerly winds developing Saturday night along the
coast. Overnight lows Saturday night should drop into the low to
mid 50s inland and low to mid to 60s along the coast.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
Surface high pressure over the midwestern states propagating
southeastward and a deep trough aloft will keep an offshore flow
going and the advection of cooler temperatures into the area
Sunday. Expect a lot of blue sky on Sunday with daytime high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in northern interior
locations to the mid 70s near the coast. Overnight lows Sunday
night will be the coolest this period dropping into the mid 40s in
the interior to low to mid 50s near the coast. The upper level
trough moves east on Monday and the surface high pressure moves
over the eastern seaboard. In response, temperatures begin to
warm and daytime onshore flow develops gradually increasing the
moisture flux over the region. Model agreement and run to run
consistency begin to break down by Tuesday. Another upper level
shortwave trough looks to drive another weak boundary through the
area from the north Tuesday night while frontogenesis begins over
the western gulf in response to a deepening upper level trough
over the midwest Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF pick up on this
feature with the latter being the most aggressive with its
development. Due to the uncertainty at this time remain reluctant
to try to forecast specifics but will trend toward a wetter
forecast for the remainder of the period.

Marine
Winds and seas will again increase this evening and remain moderate
overnight. This will result in hazardous conditions for small craft
tonight over the offshore coastal waters. Dry conditions are
expected across the marine areas tonight.

Winds and seas briefly diminish late Friday morning with low winds
and seas expected through Saturday. A strong cold front will move
across the coastal waters Saturday evening. This will result in an
abrupt increase in winds and seas with small craft advisory
conditions likely developing Saturday night and continuing through
Monday.

Fire weather
Light winds will lead to only fair dispersions Friday afternoon.

A cold front will push southward across the region Saturday afternoon
creating scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms.

Cooler, drier air and northerly winds will follow in its wake..

Fog potential and other remarks... Patchy areas of light fog
are possible Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Hydrology
The flood warning for the chipola river near altha has been
canceled. The river stage is currently at 21.18 and is forecast
to slowly fall.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 66 83 68 85 61 0 0 10 40 20
panama city 67 83 71 83 61 0 10 10 40 20
dothan 61 78 66 81 54 0 0 0 50 20
albany 61 77 65 82 55 0 0 10 40 20
valdosta 64 82 68 85 59 0 10 10 30 20
cross city 70 85 69 86 65 10 20 20 30 20
apalachicola 70 82 73 84 64 10 10 10 40 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Dvd
near term... Howell
short term... Werner
long term... Werner
aviation... Dvd
marine... Howell
fire weather... Werner
hydrology... Werner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi37 min 80°F 82°F1023.6 hPa
PCBF1 7 mi37 min NNE 6 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1023.6 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi37 min N 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 81°F1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL11 mi72 minNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds81°F63°F56%1023.3 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL13 mi74 minN 510.00 miFair75°F60°F61%1023 hPa

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Last 24hrNW5N6N8N10N9NE9NE9NE9NE12
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NE12NE9NE9NE9E7N8NE4NE6E4NE4NE7NE6
1 day ago----------------------NE4NE6NE65S4SW8S7SW5SW7SW6SW5W4W5
2 days agoS7S3E2E1E1Calm--SE2SE4E3E4E5E333S7S7S6S7----------

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
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Thu -- 01:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:50 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:57 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.31.41.41.41.41.31.210.90.70.60.50.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.80.91

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach, Florida
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Panama City Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:53 AM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:25 PM CDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.51.51.51.41.41.31.210.90.70.60.50.50.60.60.60.70.911.11.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.