Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 8:37 AM   Moonset 11:36 PM

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GMZ750 Expires:202405121315;;050015 Fzus52 Ktae 120040 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 840 pm edt Sat may 11 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-121315- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 840 pm edt Sat may 11 2024 /740 pm cdt Sat may 11 2024/
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 1 foot at 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds and south 2 feet at 2 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 840 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis -
weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather in the wake of a front before chances for showers and Thunderstorms increase early next week with the potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn more southerly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with wave heights in the 4 to 6 feet range.

FXUS62 KTAE 120029 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 829 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 828 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The forecast is largely on track with no major changes needed.

NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Ridging slides eastward from the Central US through the weekend with a dry post-frontal airmass in place. This pattern supports continued fair weather with seasonal temperatures for Mother's Day. Folks should be waking up to lows in the mid/upper 50s away from the coast tomorrow morning, followed by widespread 80s in the afternoon. The latter will feel relatively comfortable given forecast sub-60s dew points. Upper clouds build from the west tonight ahead of the next weather system brewing over the Southern Plains. Stray light showers cannot be ruled out towards the end of the period across parts of the FL Panhandle/SE AL, but chances are low (10% or less).

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Transition pattern will in place through the short term period beginning Sunday night as the area will be under a mid-level ridge ahead of our next weather system. This system will begin to approach the region Monday afternoon and evening as the mid-level ridge overhead moves east. At the surface, high pressure will be moving east out of the forecast area with moist southerly flow resuming Monday evening into Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s across the Big Bend with temperatures in the low to mid 80s across Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle as increasing clouds and rain chances begin to move in late Monday afternoon and into the evening.

Much of the severe weather should hold off until the Tuesday when the main upper level trough moves in, but we'll need to watch our western counties in the Panhandle early Tuesday morning as the system gets closer as there is a non-zero threat for an isolated strong storm.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A progressive and active pattern appears likely through much of the week and unfortunately it could bring more rounds of severe weather. The first round is possible on Tuesday as a strong shortwave trough moves across the Ohio River Valley. Although subtle forcing in the elevated southwesterly flow aloft will keep off-and-on showers through Tuesday, we'll have to monitor the potential for an uptick in severe weather potential as stronger shear, and potentially greater instability, overspread the region during the rest of the day. Given the large uncertainty in instability, and how overnight convection from Monday and early Tuesday could affect conditions, it's too early to pin down any specific severe threat. Additionally the rounds of showers and higher preciptable waters could lead to a localized threat for flash flooding across portions of the area.

Lingering showers are forecast on Wednesday as the main trough pushes through and rain chances, along with an isolated severe threat on Wednesday, will clear out by the afternoon.

A brief transition period is expected on Thursday before the next upper level system, and potential round of severe weather, possibly moves in late next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period. A light northwesterly breeze turns more northeasterly during the day Sunday. At KECP, a sea breeze is forecast to push inland and turn winds more southerly later in the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather in the wake of a front before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase early next week with the potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday. Northerly winds turn more southerly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with wave heights in the 4 to 6 feet range.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry weather continues through the weekend before a wetter pattern arrives early next week. North post-frontal winds this afternoon gradually veer to east then southeast by Monday. As such, expect a moistening trend ahead of an upcoming storm system from the west.
Widespread wetting rains (heavy at times) with thunderstorms (some may be strong to severe) are likely Monday-Tuesday. Overall, there are no fire concerns over the next 3 days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 2-4 inches throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine concerns, however, it's too far out to say with any degree of confidence.
Most of this precip is Monday into Tuesday, with additional rainfall possible later in the week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 59 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 60 Panama City 63 82 68 82 / 0 10 10 70 Dothan 58 82 64 82 / 0 10 10 80 Albany 57 84 64 80 / 0 0 10 70 Valdosta 58 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 60 Cross City 59 86 65 89 / 0 10 0 50 Apalachicola 65 81 71 81 / 0 10 0 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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