Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Panama City Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:00PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:09AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 928 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the night. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..South winds 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots becoming west late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 knots becoming east early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 928 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis..Light winds and seas are expected through Thursday...but could reach advisory levels Thursday night through Friday as a front and a line of showers and Thunderstorms move through the northeastern gulf. Winds and seas will decrease late Friday and remain fairly light through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Panama City Beach, FL
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location: 30.21, -85.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 290024
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
824 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
necessary.

Aviation
[through 00z Thursday] mostly clear skies along with mainly calm
winds and abundant low level moisture are expected to allow areas
of fog and low ceilings to develop again tonight. In general, ifr
or lower conditions are expected at the TAF sites. Visibilities
and ceilings will improve in the morning by 14z.

Prev discussion [357 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
The weak front that is situated north of the CWA that has helped to
initiate convection will weaken tonight and push off to the east,
while remaining north of the cwa. This, combined with the loss of
daytime heating, will work to diminish convection and thus kept pops
below 20 percent for after 00z. The main impact tonight will be
areas of fog, with patchy dense fog, generally from 06z to 14z. Lows
will be above normal with lows in the mid 60s.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
Areas of fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise Wednesday, with
mainly dry conditions expected through the afternoon and night
under an upper level ridge. However, enough instability and
moisture will be present across SW georgia to justify slight
chances of thunderstorms during peak heating times in the late
afternoon and evening. A sharp upper level trough will move into the
mississippi valley region on Thursday afternoon/night, with
moisture and instability increasing ahead of this feature. On
Thursday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms will likely
move into our western areas. Pops across the fl panhandle and se
alabama range from 60-80 percent Thursday night, and models are
showing heavy rainfall potential during this time with QPF amounts
ranging from 1-3" across our western areas. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as 0-6 km bulk shear
values increase to 50 kts, but marginal instability (cape
generally 1000 j/kg or less, highest near the gulf coast) could
limit severe potential. Very warm days will continue, with inland
highs in the mid-upper 80s and upper 70s along the coast. Lows
will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
The powerful shortwave trough mentioned in the short term
discussion will move eastward across our area on Friday morning
and afternoon, with a cold front at the surface also moving from
west to east across our area during the day. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely as a result, mainly along and
east of the front from the fl big bend into SW georgia. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible, with ample bulk shear and
cape values around 1000 j/kg just ahead of the front. Dry air will
move into our area behind the front during the weekend, although
generally clear skies will allow temperatures to warm into the
low-mid 80s each day.

Another powerful upper trough and potent surface low are likely
to move just northwest of our area on Monday, and a strong mid-
level jet could push into our region behind the trough on Tuesday.

Instability looks decent with SBCAPE up to 1500-2000 j/kg
possible each day, and bulk shear of around 40 kts is possible so
scattered strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Also,
periods of heavy rain are possible with deep layer moisture moving
into our area (pwat values up to 2" at times). Both the GFS and
ecmwf show widespread QPF amounts of 1-2" with locally higher
totals across our area, mainly Monday and Monday night. A lot of
uncertainty still remains since the event is nearly a week out,
but strong to severe storms and localized flooding appear
possible during this time.

Marine
Light winds and seas are expected through Thursday, but could
reach advisory levels Thursday night through Friday as a front
and a line of showers and thunderstorms move through the
northeastern gulf. Winds and seas will decrease late Friday and
remain fairly light through the weekend.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.

Hydrology
Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall on Thursday night
and early Friday, and a second round of storms/heavy rain is
possible early next week. Flooding is not expected from Thursday
to Friday with thunderstorms likely moving quickly across our
area, but cannot be ruled out early next week with additional
periods of heavy rain.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 59 85 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 40
panama city 63 77 62 77 66 / 10 0 0 0 80
dothan 61 85 59 85 63 / 10 10 0 10 70
albany 62 86 61 87 64 / 10 20 20 20 40
valdosta 59 86 59 86 62 / 0 10 10 40 20
cross city 56 85 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
apalachicola 61 76 62 77 66 / 10 0 0 0 60

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Dvd
near term... Fieux
short term... Lahr
long term... Lahr
aviation... Dvd/sjw
marine... Lahr
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Lahr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 0 mi54 min SW 6 G 7 71°F 74°F1016.8 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 12 mi54 min S 6 G 7 70°F 74°F1016.9 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 58 mi54 min SW 4.1 G 4.1
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 60 mi99 min W 1 69°F 65°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL11 mi31 minS 47.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1017.7 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL18 mi28 minSSW 510.00 miFair69°F67°F94%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE3S8S5S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW7S8S12S13
G19
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4CalmCalmE4S11SE12
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2 days agoSE5SW6SE7SE8SE4SE7E4E6E4E4E6S9SE13SE15SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Panama City Beach (outside), St. Andrew Bay, Florida (sub)
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Panama City Beach (outside)
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Tue -- 04:29 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:08 AM CDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.60.60.50.50.60.60.70.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.20.30.30.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:15 PM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.80.80.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.