Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 5:01PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:28 PM CST (04:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:10PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 916 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 9 am cst Thursday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 916 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..Strong northwesterly winds will persist tonight and into tomorrow. Winds will likely diminish late week and into this weekend thanks to surface high pressure across the northern gulf of mexico.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 150147
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
747 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Sounding discussion
The upper air release this evening was routine with no problems
encountered. The 00z sounding depicted a very strong inversion
present between 935 and 895 mb with a shallow layer of cold air
beneath this inversion. The atmospheric profile was very moist
below this inversion, but quite dry above the inversion throughout
the remainder of the lower levels and most of the mid levels.

Moderate north to northwest winds were observed below the
inversion with west-southwest to southwest winds prevailing
throughout the remainder of the sounding. 11

Prev discussion issued 303 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
synopsis...

upper low currently centered over southern arkansas. Starting to
see some indications from satellite and surface obs that low
clouds may be starting to break up over the atchafalaya basin, but
until upper jet pulls out, there will still be high clouds above
the low ones. Lix radar shows no significant precipitation over
the area, any returns being seen are from mid level clouds, and
not seeing any echoes below about 6500 feet. Cloud cover has meant
no recovery in temperatures today with mid-afternoon temperatures
generally in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Wind chill values range
from the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Short term...

drier air is on the way, and with the upper low jet MAX forecast
to shift northeast during the night, skies are expected to clear.

Timing of the departure of the high clouds will determine whether
the current freeze warning verifies. With upstream dew points over
northern louisiana and central mississippi in the upper 20s, will
not make significant changes to going forecast or warning
configuration, but not out of the question that some areas in the
warning could see temperatures remain just above freezing tonight.

Beyond tonight... Clear skies will be the rule across the area
through the weekend. Still some slight cold advection tomorrow, so
temperatures are going to have a difficult time getting past the
lower 50s, even with full sun. Another cold night tomorrow night
with areas north of the interstate 10 12 corridors potentially
seeing another light freeze. Gradual warming into the weekend with
high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday pretty close to normal.

Guidance spread on temperatures is actually pretty small for this
time of year, and have accepted a blend of guidance on highs. 35
long term...

upper flow becomes more zonal over the weekend, and only a weak
shortwave forecast to move through on Monday or Tuesday. At this
time, an increase in clouds is about all that is anticipated. A
stronger system is expected to move out of the southern rockies
Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitation could spread into the area
as early as Wednesday, but is more likely Wednesday night and
thanksgiving day. Those periods will be beyond the scope of the
current forecast package, but something to keep in mind for later
forecast packages.

Extended temperature guidance will be dependent on cloud cover
with the early week shortwave, but highs should be fairly close to
normal, with lows near to slightly above normal. 35
aviation...

lingering clouds remain in place across most of SE la and coastal ms
in the wake of a departing upper-level system to our north. Cigs
have been rather consistent between 008 and 012 and should stay that
way through late evening. These clouds will progress to the east
through early tonight leading to eventual clearing into daybreak
tomorrow. Winds should steadily diminish for inland locations
throughout the night, but will likely remain breezy along coastal
areas with winds remaining generally from the northwest. Tomorrow
will be dry with clear skies, leading to widespreadVFR categories
for all terminals. Klg
marine...

strong northwesterly offshore winds will continue through tonight
and into tomorrow thanks to a departing upper-level system well
north across arkansas. Small craft advisory has been extended for
offshore zones until 15z tomorrow, and added marine zones gmz536 and
gmz538. Support behind this decision was an in depth analysis at
what appears to be a developing low-level speed MAX behind
tightening height gradients across the area. Model sounding guidance
across these outer marine zones support the development of a well-
mixed marine boundary layer which will have no problem transferring
these low-level winds to the sea surface through mid morning
Thursday. Lingering gusty winds and seas 3-5 feet following through
mid-afternoon has prompted exercise caution statements for the 4
offshore zones of SE la. Otherwise, winds will finally diminish on
Friday and going into the weekend. Klg
decision support...

dss code: blue
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: freeze warning in effect for majority of area
small craft advisory in effect for coastal waters
river flood warning along the pearl river near
bogalusa to pearlington and along the mississippi river
at red river landing
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 28 51 33 62 0 0 0 0
btr 30 53 34 63 0 0 0 0
asd 30 53 32 62 0 0 0 0
msy 35 52 38 61 0 0 0 0
gpt 31 51 34 60 10 0 0 0
pql 30 52 31 61 10 0 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
laz034>037-039-040-046>050-056>059-065-071-072.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for gmz555-557-570-
572-575-577.

Ms... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am cst Thursday for
msz068>071-077-080>082.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst Thursday for gmz557-570-572-
575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi40 min NNW 13 G 17 38°F 53°F1025.5 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi40 min NNW 20 G 23 41°F 57°F1025.5 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi46 min 66°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi40 min NNW 16 G 22 40°F 1025.7 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi40 min N 16 G 23
CARL1 49 mi40 min 56°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi93 minNW 127.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1026.4 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi35 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1025.4 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi32 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NE6NW10NW7NW9N8N10
G15
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1 day ago------------------N10
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N8N8N8N10N12
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N9N8N10--
2 days ago------------------NE3CalmCalmE5S5S8S5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:26 AM CST     1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:08 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:29 PM CST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:03 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.81.81.71.61.41.210.80.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.40.60.70.91.11.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay St. Louis
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM CST     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:09 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:48 PM CST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:04 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.61.61.61.51.41.21.10.90.70.50.40.30.20.20.20.30.50.60.80.91.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.