Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Henderson Point, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday March 30, 2017 3:18 PM CDT (20:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:49AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1117 Am Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots with frequent higher gusts late this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the late evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming south 25 to 35 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming southwest 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet with occasional waves to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 20 to 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1117 Am Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis..A cold front will slowly move through the coastal waters through this evening. High pressure is expected to build back over the area Friday. Another strong low pressure system should then impact the coastal waters starting Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Henderson Point, MS
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location: 30.21, -89.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 301722
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1222 pm cdt Thu mar 30 2017

Aviation
Convection continuing to move eastward, and have dropped mention
of thunder from kbtr, kmcb, khdc, khum, and may be able to drop
new orleans terminals and kasd in the next hour or so. Should be
east of all terminals by 21z or so. Outside of convection, MVFR to
vfr conditions in place. Beyond 21z, anticipateVFR conditions
for the remainder of the forecast period. Cannot rule out brief
period of radiation fog around sunrise, evening shift will need to
monitor. 35

Prev discussion /issued 947 am cdt Thu mar 30 2017/
sounding discussion...

no problems with the flight this morning despite approaching
weather from the west prior to launch. A pretty unstable looking
sounding indicative of impending weather. Capping layer from
previous profiles have eroded with just a slight nose indicated at
744 mb/8800ft, then a fairly steep lapse rate above. Low level
moisture has deepened to just below the 8800 ft cap, a dry layer
to baout 500 mb, then saturated above. The cloudscape at launch
was a chaotic sky with decks at multiple and varied levels,
inclusive of some TCU and ac. Winds in the sounding were ssw to sw
15 to 55 kt surface to 31kft, then more SW to W 45 to 105 kt above
into the stratosphere. Peak wind was found at 38kft, 254/106 kt,
just below the tropopause, which was located at 136 mb with a
temperature of -62.6c - a secondary tropopause was indicated at 78
mb with at temperature of -71.7c and should be close to the
coldest cloud tops seen on satellite imagery today.

A forecast MAX temp lift is pretty close to most unstable lift at
342k yields a CAPE of about 2400 j/kg. The chap output showed
primarily a rain threat and waterspout potential with a ricks
indexs of 97. Rainfall potential was computed at 4.70", and given
the slow moving nature of the convection and some echo-training,
this seems attainable in some areas this morning. A -14c 500 mb
temperature is pretty cold and supportive of hail generation but a
wet bulb zero over 10kft makes reaching the ground with any
significant size somewhat difficult.

Finally, the balloon terminated at 7.17 mb some 20.6 miles up over
the desoto national forest near old highway 26 (broome school
road) in northwestern jackson co. Ms. 24/rr
prev discussion... /issued 410 am cdt Thu mar 30 2017/
short term...

a wide swath of showers and thunderstorms is slowly progressing
east across the CWA behind a pre-frontal trough. Satellite imagery
shows that the mid/upper level centered around ks/ne has gone
through a stalling pattern as it wraps into itself. This has
caused the eastward movement of rain over the region to slow
dramatically over the last several hours. It appears that this
trough is starting to move east again which should bring the bulk
of the rain eastward as well. The general intensity trend of
convection has been slowly decreasing as storms have moved further
east of strongest vorticity advection and low level convergence
has weaken due to sfc winds veering and decreasing. That
combination will keep the severe threat to a minimum but still
allow for the occasional threat of locally heavy rainfall, mainly
due to training at times.

Moving through the day, the band of rain will move from west to east
before exiting the CWA between sunset and midnight. A subtropical
jet moving across the central and northern gulf of mexico will
enhance convection along the coast moreso than the jet at the base
of the trough will on inland storms. This should result in stronger
storms along the la coast. Both medium range models and meso scale
models depict some version of this. That transition (from the
current stronger inland storms) should start to take place mid
morning or so. Widespread activity will limit warming today, so
have kept highs to mid/upper 70s.

Long term...

Friday and Saturday will be dry and warm as trough moves east and
upper ridging builds in over the area. As temps of late have been
well above normal, decided to go above guidance in most locations
with highs in the mid to almost upper 80s by Saturday.

An upper level low diving out of the pacific NW today will be moving
into the desert region of the us through Saturday evening. Models
show the low rotating back NE across northern la and ar on
Monday. Timing differences between ECMWF and GFS has decreased as
the ECMWF speed up slightly. The close proximity of the upper low
will set the stage for strong kinematic forcing from the surface
to the upper levels. Model soundings show a very saturated column,
which combined with strong instability, will likely lead to a
heavy rainfall potential.

Tide levels look to be an issue as well with the weekend system as
deep fetch strong winds bring water levels higher into the weekend
along with spring tide fluctuations within the same time frame.

A return to warm temps and no rainfall will return Monday and
persist through middle of the week.

Meffer &&
aviation...

tsra and low ceilings associated with this will remain through much
of today. The line of sh/ts is moving very slowly which will cause
prevailing ifr conditions to take up a good bit of time in the taf
pack. Clearing is expected as the line exits the area after dark for
most if not all sites.

Marine...

numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move slowly
through the northern gulf throughout the day today and exit the
coastal waters tonight. Expected pressure gradient will only support
wind speeds today of 15-20kt. But with the slow moving convective
element, winds will be capable of staying elevated to 20-25+kt for
several hours today into this evening. For this reasoning, decision
has been made to issue a small craft advisory during this time frame
for waters most affected. NW winds will move in behind the front and
should be able to stay in the 15-20kt range through tonight. The
gradient collapses Friday causing winds to relax and become somewhat
variable. Return flow will be quick to start back by Friday night
into Saturday and should be a lot like the system that we have just
experienced with strong SE winds Saturday through Sunday night
possibly reaching up to top end advisory or even right at gale
conditions by Sunday night. More strong to severe thunderstorms
should accompany this front as well. The cold front should exit the
coastal waters by late Monday bringing moderate to strong westerly
winds in its wake. Conditions should improve quite a bit by
Tuesday and remain that way through the end of the current
forecast time frame.

Decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring severe weather potential today
decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 78 54 84 56 / 60 20 0 0
btr 78 55 86 58 / 70 10 0 0
asd 76 55 82 57 / 80 30 0 0
msy 78 61 84 64 / 80 20 0 0
gpt 75 57 77 59 / 80 60 0 0
pql 77 53 81 55 / 80 60 0 0

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz532-536-
538-552-555-557-572.

Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Friday for gmz575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz536-538-
552-555-557-572.

Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Friday for gmz577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 8 mi49 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 63°F 75°F1011 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 20 mi89 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.4)62°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 32 mi49 min ENE 8 G 8.9 65°F 75°F1010.4 hPa
42067 - USM3M02 36 mi159 min W 23 G 29 66°F 4 ft1012.7 hPa62°F
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 39 mi49 min NNW 13 G 18 68°F 1011.2 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi49 min 74°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 41 mi49 min NW 15 G 20 69°F 1012.2 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 42 mi49 min 76°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 42 mi49 min NW 8 G 17 68°F 1011.2 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 46 mi49 min S 1 G 7 64°F 72°F1009 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi94 min NNW 13 67°F 1011 hPa62°F
CARL1 49 mi49 min 59°F

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS14 mi29 minESE 77.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F57°F83%1009.1 hPa
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS17 mi26 minVar 39.00 miLight Rain65°F61°F87%1010.1 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS24 mi21 minNNW 310.00 miFair66°F59°F80%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from HSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6
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SE10--SE9SE7--------------------Calm--S8S10
G16
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1 day agoSE10
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S7S6--------------------CalmCalmCalmS4--S5S11
G14
SE11S10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island (West Point), Mississippi
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Cat Island (West Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:20 PM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 PM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.31.110.80.60.40.20.1-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pass Christian Yacht Club, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Pass Christian Yacht Club
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:17 PM CDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 PM CDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.31.41.41.41.31.10.90.70.40.20.1-0-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.