Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 3:22 AM   Moonset 2:57 PM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 348 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 348 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through mid next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 032052 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 352 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms
Looking at same area of impact
SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12.

MEFFER

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups.

MEFFER

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A mix of VFR to IFR conditions are ongoing as large clusters of showers pass from west to east across the area. As this activity dissipates later this afternoon, lower decks should generally lift as well. The period of VFR will likely be short lived as widespread rainfall today will enhance the potential for areas of light fog tonight. Dense fog shouldn't be too common, so mostly have BR in most TAF forecasts. VFR should return mid morning.

MEFFER

MARINE
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

MEFFER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Cat Island (West Point)
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Fri -- 05:01 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
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Fri -- 02:56 PM CDT     Moonset
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Fri -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
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