Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 031737 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1237 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog is lingering a little longer than we had previously anticipated over the eastern half of the CWA We've updated the forecast to reflect this. Otherwise, it looks to be in good shape.
Ongoing convection just east of our area may spread back to the west during the next few hours. Then the focus will shift to the west where the dryline and higher terrain will become active later this afternoon.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Early morning storms continue along the Highway 77 corridor with a strong storm now exiting northern Fayette county. Light showers are also noted farther west along portions of I-35 and the Hill Country.
Elsewhere, patchy fog is in place for most areas outside of the Rio Grande plains. Hi-res models generally show convection will continue for a few more hours early this morning, then gradually decrease in coverage. KEWX VAD wind profile does show roughly 20-25kt southeasterly flow in the lower levels. This along with very moist air characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s is helping to aid convection.

For today, expect plenty of cloud cover and humid conditions over the region. Highs today will range from the mid 90s out west along the Rio Grande where some afternoon clearing will be realized.
Farther east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, highs should stay in the 80s. We will keep rain chances in the forecast today as widely scattered to scattered showers and storms will develop as the lower levels continue to heat. For the late afternoon and evening hours, attention will turn to west Texas as the dryline becomes active. In addition, we should see some convection develop over the Serranias del Burro mountains of Mexico. A good amount of the 00Z hi- res convective allowing models show clusters of storms shifting eastward into the Rio Grande plains, with perhaps a line of storms moving into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
Whether or not these storms can make it farther east through the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor is still uncertain.
For now, we have raised rain chances considerably over the NBM for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country as confidence for convection is higher across these locations. Rain chances may need to be raised farther east across the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor pending the next suite of hi-res model data. SPC has placed areas generally along and west of the I-35/I-37 corridors in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats at this time. In addition, locally heavy rainfall is likely, and this may lead to localized flooding in areas that have seen recent rains.

Another round of storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, with the the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center placing areas along and north of a Del Rio to San Antonio to Giddings line in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
A cold front may move into portions of north and central Texas late Saturday and this may provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. We will also need to watch for locally heavy rainfall, especially if the cold front or a strong outflow boundary drops southward into the region.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A shortwave disturbance moves through West TX Saturday and generates upscaled convection over West Central and North TX for Saturday evening. Our Hill Country counties are on the southern periphery of this feature, and as we have seen from the Wednesday storm activity, will benefit from the best rain chances for Saturday night. Outflow boundaries will likely lead to locally higher PoPs in the eastern Hill Country and Austin metro area after midnight and into much of Sunday. Additional weak shortwave energy could continue to generate more widely scattered or isolated convection across most areas through Sunday evening. QPF amounts could favor more heavy rainfall mentioning across the north, but not enough areas have endured truly soaked soil conditions for there to be a FFA concern this far out.
Farther south or along and south of Highway 90, lower rain chances are expected and overall QPF is minuscule when compared to the rainfall potential along and north of I-10. That said, a discrete strong to severe storm or two forming over southern counties could end up dropping a quick 1-2 inches over isolated spots Throughout the period Saturday night through Sunday night. Appropriately, the national centers have deemed our severe weather and heavy rainfall threats to be "marginal", but areas of "slight" for both categories exist to the north and east, so a possible escalation to the higher threat could evolve as we get closer to the time periods.

Sunday night the fetch of shortwave activity appears to fizzle out as a vigorous upper trough cuts across the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Models have trended more humid and mostly cloudy for Monday with still a relatively deep layer of Gulf moisture. Thus have followed the trends to believe there could be a few showers or sprinkles as the cap takes hold aloft. The drier and more stable pattern in the mid levels should bring our first taste of summer heat for Tuesday through Thursday. The GFS was especially hard-hitting with a short-lived heat wave covering western and central counties in this period, but both GFS and ECM are trending toward less mixing of this drier air aloft mixing down. As it stands, we still see a good chance of triple digit heat along the Rio Grande through the mid-week period, but central and eastern counties are a bit less certain on the temperature range. Thus, will state vaguely that highs in the 90s are most likely each day.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

It's a bad flying day in Austin and San Antonio. IFR/LIFR conditions are still hanging around. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of improvement this afternoon. Ceilings should get to MVFR this afternoon and maybe briefly to VFR at AUS. Ceilings should lower again starting this evening dropping to IFR for the late evening and overnight. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening with better chances at AUS, but too low to include in the TAF. Ceilings should finally get back to VFR Saturday afternoon.

At DRT clouds have scattered out and they will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the better chances during the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop during the evening and to IFR overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 70 86 70 82 / 20 20 50 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 85 69 82 / 20 20 50 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 89 71 84 / 20 20 40 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 83 69 80 / 20 30 60 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 73 87 / 50 30 50 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 68 80 / 20 30 50 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 20 20 50 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 87 69 83 / 20 20 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 72 82 / 10 10 30 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 71 83 / 20 20 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 20 40 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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