Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 1:32 PM   Moonset 2:07 AM

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GMZ750 Expires:202405161445;;296353 Fzus52 Ktae 160746 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 346 am edt Thu may 16 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-161445- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 346 am edt Thu may 16 2024 /246 am cdt Thu may 16 2024/
Today - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and south 2 feet at 2 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Monday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 346 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure will pass across the waters today with fairly light winds. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.

FXUS62 KTAE 161029 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 629 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Upper level ridging and deep-layer light northwesterly flow will continue a slight drying trend in which we can expect clear to mostly clear skies today. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, and the overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Although the convective evolution and timing remains somewhat unclear for Friday into Saturday, severe weather certainly remains a concern. On the large scale, the models agree that the forecast area will be in the right entrance region of the southwesterly upper level jet with steep mid-level lapse rates near 7C/km by Saturday.
Instability looks decent on all of the guidance with SBCAPE values near 2000 j/kg. The presence of fairly strong mid and upper level winds for mid May standards in this part of the country will also allow for high deep layer shear values. Both the 500 mb and 700 mb winds are expected to exceed the 90th percentile for this time of year on the ECMWF ensemble for Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, precipitable water values in the 90th-99th percentile for this time of year are expected by Saturday afternoon with values nearing 2 inches. Basically, the large scale picture is set for stormy weather depending on the mesoscale details. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern as low level shear looks a bit weak for a big tornado potential. However, I wouldn't completely discount a tornado threat either.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Depending on the timing, a low end chance of showers and thunderstorm could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday, Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures a few degrees above average.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There is a slight chance for fog to develop around sunrise affecting the ECP and TLH terminals, however it should quickly dissipate within the hour. Confidence is low, so fog was not included in the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds will shift northwesterly for most terminals this afternoon with ECP becoming southwesterly due to the afternoon seabreeze.

MARINE

High pressure will pass across the waters today with fairly light winds. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Today will be a drier day with light northwest winds and minRH values in the upper 30s this afternoon. The only fire weather concern for today will be the high dispersions in the Georgia districts and the inland regions of the SE FL Big Bend.

Our next chance for rain and thunderstorms will be Friday during the afternoon into the evening hours. Most of the rain will be in our Alabama districts but, there is a chance for a wetting rain along I-10 in the western Big Bend and Panhandle; as well as areas west of the Flint River in our Georgia districts. Elevated dispersions will be possible within the Apalachicola Forest Friday afternoon, with moderate dispersions throughout the rest of the region. Better chances for rain are widespread on Saturday, hence there are no other fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta continues in minor flood stage today with the Ochlockonee River close to minor flood stage at Thomasville and Concord. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 91 69 88 73 / 0 10 40 20 Panama City 87 72 85 73 / 0 10 40 30 Dothan 89 69 87 71 / 0 10 60 40 Albany 88 67 87 71 / 0 10 50 40 Valdosta 89 67 90 72 / 0 0 20 20 Cross City 89 66 88 72 / 0 0 20 10 Apalachicola 84 73 83 75 / 0 10 20 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Panama City Beach
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Thu -- 12:07 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:28 PM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Channel entrance
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Thu -- 01:53 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:15 PM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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