Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Valley, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:58 AM EDT (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 322 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Today..East northeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds, becoming 4 seconds in the afternoon. Inland waters becoming a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday and Friday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday and Saturday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday and Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 322 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure building over eastern canada and new england will expand southward down the u.s. Eastern seaboard, resulting in onshore winds developing this morning. Wind speeds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and evening. High pressure will then weaken over the carolinas on Saturday and will move into the western atlantic on Sunday, maintaining a light onshore wind regime over our waters. Strong high pressure will then build over new england early next week as weak low pressure approaches the gulf stream waters from the east.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Valley, FL
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location: 30.22, -81.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 200836
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
436 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Currently
Early morning surface analysis depicts a dissolving frontal
boundary positioned across north central florida. Meanwhile, high
pressure (1023 millibars) was building over eastern canada and new
england. Aloft... A massive deep-layered ridge centered over the
tennessee valley is blanketing the southeastern states and ohio
valley. Troughing was digging southward over the western atlantic.

Goes- east derived total precipitable water imagery displays a
much drier air mass over locations north of interstate 10, with
pwat values generally in the 1.3 to 1.6 inch range, while a deeper
tropical air mass persists for locations south of i-10, with
pwats still near 2 inches across north central florida. A few
patches of mid-level cloudiness are persisting over inland
northeast and north central florida along the decaying front.

Otherwise, skies are clear and winds have decoupled nearly area-
wide. Temperatures and dewpoints were generally in the low to mid
70s as of 09z.

Near term (this morning through tonight)
Deep-layered ridging will continue to expand over the southeastern
states today, while a surface high pressure center over eastern
canada will wedge southward down the u.S. Eastern seaboard today.

This weather pattern will nudge the dry air mass in place over
southeastern georgia southward across northeast florida, with
deeper moisture clinging to north central florida this afternoon
as onshore flow deepens. Dry conditions will prevail for locations
along and north of interstate 10 today, while isolated showers
and thunderstorms develop over the st. Johns river basin to the
south of jacksonville this afternoon as a wind surge pushes the
atlantic sea breeze boundary quickly inland. This activity should
increase in coverage somewhat during the mid to late afternoon
hours as it pushes southwestward across north central florida.

Model soundings again indicate that a few stronger thunderstorms
containing gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible this
afternoon in north central florida as the increasingly dry air
mass potentially enhances the strength of downdraft winds.

Otherwise, a tightening local pressure gradient will result in
breezy easterly winds by late afternoon for locations along and
east of interstate 95. Plentiful sunshine through early afternoon
will again boost highs into the mid 90s at inland locations
along and west of u.S. Highway 301, with lower 90s
elsewhere... Except upper 80s at the coast. Maximum heat index
values will range from 100-105 degrees at inland locations this
afternoon.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will push west of north
central florida and the southern suwannee valley by sunset. A
relatively tight local pressure gradient will keep onshore wind
speeds around 10 mph overnight at area beaches, and this
convergent low level flow could develop a few low topped showers
this evening over the near shore atlantic waters that may move
onshore along the northeast florida coast overnight. Coverage
should remain isolated due to the very dry air mass that will
continue to overspread our region, with pwats forecast to be in
the 1.1 - 1.3 inch range overnight. Winds will be slow to decouple
overnight inland, so fog potential will likely be confined to our
far western counties. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to
the upper 70s at the coast.

Short term (Friday through Saturday night)
Prevailing flow will be out of the east on Friday, as the high
pressure region located to our north will continue its trek
eastward. Mostly dry air will be pushing into our region from the
east, with precipitable water (pwat) values measuring as low as
0.99 inches in parts of southern georgia. In spite of the reduced
moisture levels, a broken off low from a tropical upper
tropospheric trough (tutt) will be passing over the southern tip
of the florida peninsula, heading towards the gulf of mexico and
with its passage will will introduce some instability over our
area which will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing near the coastline and pressing inland throughout the
day. Saturday will be more of the same, as weak low level
shortwaves assist in convective development. High temperatures for
the start of the weekend will be in the low 90s and mid to high
80s, with the coolest daytime temperatures occurring near the
coastline. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 70s and
high 60s for inland areas, with coastal locations having low
temperatures in the mid 70s.

Long term (Sunday through Wednesday)
As the ridge to the north moves off to the northeast, the flow
will begin to shift to out of the southeast on Sunday and will
eventually move around to a more southerly flow by the middle of
next week. Pwat values moving into the forecast area will increase
to as high as 2.20 inches by Wednesday. This moist air, mixed with
a series of shortwave troughs passing through the region from the
east, will lead to the development of potentially strong
thunderstorms during daytime heating along the coastline and then
pushing over inland areas in the afternoon and evening. High daily
temperatures will start to warm after Sunday, with the highs
shifting away from low 90s and high 80s in the inland areas to
becoming more uniformly in the low 90s, with coastal sites still
remaining in the upper 80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in
the low 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for
coastal areas.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 17z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact gnv
towards 20z, with a lower probability for showers at sgj after
17z. We left vicinity coverage at these terminals due to low
confidence in intensity and timing. Light northeasterly winds will
develop after sunrise, with a steady increase in surface speeds
expected this afternoon. Sustained speeds may approach 15 knots at
sgj and ssi after 19z, with speeds elsewhere increasing to around
10 knots with higher gusts. Thunderstorm activity may linger at
gnv until around 00z, with a few brief showers possible after 00z
at the rest of the terminals as atlantic showers potentially move
onshore, resulting in periods of ceilings around 2000 feet after
sunset.

Marine
High pressure building over eastern canada and new england will
wedge southward down the u.S. Eastern seaboard today, resulting in
a gradually tightening local pressure gradient and developing
onshore winds. This evening's wind surge will result in wind
speeds approaching 15 knots, with seas building to 3-4 feet. High
pressure will then settle southward and will gradually weaken on
Friday and Saturday as it becomes positioned over the carolinas.

Onshore winds around 10 knots will prevail, along with periodic
showers and thunderstorms impacting our waters. A long period
easterly swell will move over our waters by late in the weekend,
keeping seas offshore in the 3-5 foot range into early next week.

Weak low pressure will then move westward across the western
atlantic to the north of the bahamas early next week, with this
feature likely turning northwestward by Tuesday as it approaches
the gulf stream waters. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure center
will build over new england, with some increase in onshore winds
expected locally by Monday.

Rip currents: strengthening onshore winds will create increasingly
choppy seas this afternoon and will keep a moderate risk in place
at area beaches. Persistent onshore winds will likely keep a
moderate risk in place through the upcoming weekend.

Climate
Gainesville has experienced high temperatures at or above 95
degrees for 7 consecutive days, which is the longest such stretch
during the month of september since 1925, when a stretch of 8 days
occurred from september 18th through 25th. Otherwise... The first
19 days of the month have been the hottest beginning to september
at alma, st. Simons island and gainesville... And the third hottest
at jacksonville.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 94 70 91 71 10 10 20 0
ssi 88 78 87 76 10 20 20 20
jax 91 73 88 73 10 10 30 20
sgj 89 78 85 74 20 20 30 20
gnv 94 71 90 71 30 20 20 10
ocf 94 72 91 71 50 20 10 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LTJF1 11 mi41 min 78°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 12 mi41 min 78°F 85°F1015.6 hPa
BLIF1 14 mi41 min 78°F 1016.2 hPa78°F
DMSF1 15 mi41 min 86°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 26 mi59 min W 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 83°F1015.4 hPa (-0.9)
RCYF1 30 mi41 min 87°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi41 min 79°F 86°F1016.2 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 34 mi29 min 85°F1 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 40 mi74 min W 1.9 75°F 1016 hPa74°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL10 mi66 minN 09.00 miFair74°F73°F97%1015.2 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL12 mi67 minNW 310.00 miFair79°F73°F85%1015.1 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL15 mi66 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds77°F75°F94%1015.1 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL18 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from CRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----S4SW4W5W5NW7N6NW5NW74E9E8SW21
G26
N13
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W3W8W6SW6SW4--SE11SE9E9SE6--SW7SW5--SW4--------
2 days agoS3S3S3S4S4S4S6S7S8SE12
G20
SE12SE10S9S7SE6S8CalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Landing, ICWW, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.