Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pretty Bayou, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday March 30, 2017 1:37 AM CDT (06:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 908 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet after midnight. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet well offshore. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 908 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis.. Light to moderate southeasterly winds will become southerly on Thursday...and could increase to cautionary levels Thursday night as a front approaches our area. Winds and seas will subside behind the front from Friday through the weekend. A stronger system may move into our area early next week...with advisory level conditions possible across our marine areas on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pretty Bayou, FL
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location: 30.22, -85.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 300107
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
907 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Near term [through tonight]
00 utc surface analysis shows a frontal zone across eastern ok/tx
with thunderstorms ongoing well ahead of the front in NRN la/ar.

High pressure had moved a little further east of our region into
the western atlantic. The low level airmass continues to moisten
across our region as dewpoints this evening are generally in the
low 60s in north florida. Primary concern overnight is with
respect to fog development. Debris cloudiness from upstream
convection over la will move over the region tonight. This coupled
with a tighter pressure gradient should limit the overall fog
potential compared to previous mornings. Expect another mild night
with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Prev discussion [744 pm edt]
Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
A sharp upper level trough will move eastward across the
mississippi valley and central gulf coast regions on Thursday
before moving into our area Thursday night through Friday morning.

Ahead of this feature, deep layer moisture will increase with pwat
values around 1.5". At the surface, a cold front will move
eastward into alabama on Thursday night, with multiple models
depicting lines/clusters of showers and thunderstorms moving into
se alabama and the fl panhandle from the evening through the
overnight hours. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to
severe, as a robust mid-level jet could lead to effective bulk
shear values exceeding 50 kts. The instability may be a limiting
factor, although some of the latest hi-res models show cape
increasing to 1000-1500 j/kg near the panhandle coast overnight.

The main threat would likely be damaging winds, although with a
decent low-level jet a tornado could not be ruled out.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to persist farther east
across the remainder of our area on Friday morning, though these
may be less intense than overnight as moisture and instability
will decrease slightly when the front moves through SW georgia
and the florida big bend. Expect showers and thunderstorms to end
across eastern portions of our area on Friday afternoon, with dry
conditions expected during the night. Thursday will be very warm
again across inland areas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Upper 70s are expected along the gulf coast. Lows Thursday night
will range from the low-mid 60s across most of our area. Friday
will be slightly less warm as the front moves through, with highs
in the lower 80s inland / mid 70s near the coast and lows in the
mid-upper 50s on Friday night.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Dry and warm conditions will prevail during the weekend under an
upper level ridge, with highs reaching the mid-upper 80s each
day. More active weather is expected to return Monday as another
highly amplified upper trough approaches our area. This feature
will be associated with a sub-1000 mb surface low possibly moving
northeastward across the lower mississippi valley region into the
ohio valley region from Monday afternoon through the night. Cape
will potentially increase to 1000-2000 j/kg across our area and a
strong mid-level jet could produce very high bulk shear values. If
this setup verifies, there would be a decent chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms across our area, with all modes of severe
weather (damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes) possible. As deep
layer moisture moves into our area (pwat values up to 2.0"), heavy
rain is also possible with this system, especially across western
parts of our area with some models showing the potential for up
to several inches of rain. However, since this event is still
several days out, significant uncertainty remains in the track and
intensity of the system.

Drier conditions are expected on Tuesday once the low and cold
front move away from our area, but another strong system is
expected to move into the central us on Wednesday. To the
southeast of this system, southerly flow will bring increasing
instability and moisture back to our area so chances for showers
and thunderstorms are expected to increase again, especially
late Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain also
appear possible with this system, although it is still at least a
week out and ample uncertainty remains. High temperatures will
generally remain in the lower 80s during the early and middle
portions of the week, with lows mainly in the lower 60s.

Aviation [through 00z Friday]
A cold front located to the west of our CWA will continue to track
east. Ahead of this system, southerly winds will develop and
intensify throughout the day tomorrow.

For the overnight hours, a brief period of light winds towards
daybreak is possible. This being said, the formation of fog
throughout the night will depend on the duration and timing of
these light winds. However, guidance is not as persistent with fog
as the past few nights. Thus, only expect MVFR conditions at all
sites between 09-13z. The only exception will be for terminals
located in the far west of our cwa. These terminals could reach
ifr conditions after 08z. All terminals should return toVFR
quickly after sunrise. Towards the end of the TAF period,
southerly winds will intensify with gusts within the 15-20kt
range.

Marine
Light to moderate southeasterly winds will become southerly on
Thursday, and could increase to cautionary levels Thursday night
as a front approaches our area. Winds and seas will subside behind
the front from Friday through the weekend. A stronger system may
move into our area early next week, with advisory level conditions
possible across our marine areas on Monday.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

There is a good chance of wetting rain Thursday night and Friday as
a cold front moves through.

Hydrology
Multiple systems are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms
across our area over the next several days; the first will move
through Thursday night, with additional chances on Monday and
during the middle of next week. Areas of heavy rainfall are
possible with each system, although the first one on Thursday
night does not look likely to cause flooding. Heavier rainfall is
possible with both systems next week, although since they are
several days out significant uncertainty remains with the location
and intensity of heaviest rain.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 58 85 64 82 56 / 0 10 50 50 0
panama city 62 77 67 75 61 / 0 10 80 30 0
dothan 59 85 62 80 56 / 0 10 80 20 0
albany 61 87 64 81 56 / 0 20 70 60 0
valdosta 60 87 62 82 56 / 0 20 30 50 0
cross city 57 83 62 80 56 / 0 10 30 50 10
apalachicola 62 76 66 77 61 / 0 10 70 50 0

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Godsey
short term... Lahr
long term... Lahr
aviation... Dicatarina/godsey
marine... Lahr
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Lahr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 6 mi50 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 75°F1014.7 hPa
PCBF1 8 mi50 min SSE 11 G 12 71°F 74°F1014.4 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi50 min S 4.1 G 5.1 1014.7 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 54 mi113 min SE 1.9 66°F 66°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair59°F55°F90%1015.2 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL13 mi42 minSE 410.00 miFair61°F58°F93%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE4CalmNE35SE10S7
G17
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S9SE7SE7CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS5S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW7S8S12S13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4CalmCalmE4S11SE12
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Alligator Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:03 PM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM CDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.50.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.10.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:53 PM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.40.50.50.60.70.80.90.911.1110.90.70.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.