Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pretty Bayou, FL

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:44PM Saturday July 21, 2018 10:09 PM CDT (03:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 944 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am edt Sunday through late Sunday night...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..West winds around 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots through the night. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night through Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 944 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis..Unseasonably strong wsw winds are forecast to begin overnight and last through tomorrow night associated with a frontal system. Additionally, severe Thunderstorms will be possible starting again tomorrow afternoon. Winds should fall below headline levels by Monday, with seas a little slower to subside.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pretty Bayou, FL
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location: 30.22, -85.73     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 220135
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
935 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Update
A cluster of strong to severe storms are currently marching south
through our northern forecast area this evening. This cluster
should remain active for at least the next couple hours with
increased low level shear and slightly warmer temperatures
facilitating the continued activity for at least the next few
hours. A corresponding severe thunderstorm watch has been extended
south to around the florida alabama and florida georgia border
through 1 am edt. Grids have been updated to reflect current
conditions.

Prev discussion [745 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
Most of the area has cleared out from the severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and severe weather is not anticipated across the majority
of the region through the evening. The only possible exception could
be in extreme northern portions of the forecast area and north of
dothan albany. There is still enough instability in the atmosphere
in these locations and a little bit better forcing aloft for a few
thunderstorms to develop through the evening hours. Severe weather
is not anticipated overnight but we could a few isolated
thunderstorms develop overnight as depicted by the multiple hi-res
models. Confidence is fairly low in this scenario and the output is
questionable considering how far off they were on the development of
the convection this afternoon.

Short term [Sunday through Monday night]
An anomalous upper low (by nearly 4 standard deviation), will
remain in place across the southeastern conus, moving atop north
florida on Monday. The greatest forcing for ascent, and surface
based forcing (a frontal boundary), locally, will exist on
Sunday. Associated with the upper low, abnormally strong deep
layer shear will combine with summertime instability to yield a
higher than normal threat for severe weather. The storm prediction
center has kept our much of our region in a slight risk for
Sunday afternoon. The main hazard will be widespread damaging
winds, though the threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. With the upper low meandering over the region on Monday, the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms forced from aloft
will be possible, though the severe threat should be low to none.

See rainfall forecast information in the hydrology discussion
below.

Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
The anomalous upper low will gradually fill through mid-week, with
a more typical summertime pattern returning by the end of the week
into the weekend. Expect higher than normal pops through Thursday,
with more typical rain chances to end the week. Highs will start
around 90 degrees on Tuesday, gradually increasing into the lower
90s by the end of the week.

Aviation [through 00z Monday]
A strong MCS is moving in from the north and could produce gusty
winds and localized ifr conditions at aby vld later this evening,
but uncertainty is high as this moves southeast. Aside from that,
patchy fog is possible overnight at our inland terminals , but
confidence is low so did not mention in the tafs.VFR conditions
will prevail but another round of thunderstorms will bring
MVFR ifr conditions at times to area terminals on Sunday.

Marine
Unseasonably strong wsw winds are forecast to begin overnight and
last through tomorrow night associated with a frontal system.

Additionally, severe thunderstorms will be possible starting again
tomorrow afternoon. Winds should fall below headline levels by
Monday, with seas a little slower to subside.

Fire weather
Red flag conditions will not occur over the next several days with
moisture expected to remain high across the area.

Hydrology
Widespread average rain amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible
across north florida and extreme south georgia over the next 48
hours. Most of this rain will occur on Sunday, with isolated
higher amounts of 3-6" possible. The threat for flash flooding
remains low due to the fact that storms will likely be
progressive, though nuisance flooding in urban and rural areas
will be possible. While there have been some rises along area
rivers today (especially the most responsive ones), river levels
remain below action stage. Should some of the same areas receive
heavy rain tomorrow, action stage would be possible along some
area rivers.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 76 90 71 90 72 40 60 60 60 40
panama city 82 89 77 89 77 20 50 50 50 40
dothan 74 90 72 87 72 40 60 30 70 30
albany 75 92 72 87 73 60 50 40 60 30
valdosta 74 90 71 89 72 50 60 60 60 30
cross city 78 88 73 89 73 30 70 60 40 40
apalachicola 81 88 77 88 76 30 50 60 40 40

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 5 am Sunday to 4 am edt Monday for
apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to
ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20
nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton
county line fl out 20 nm-waters from suwannee river to
apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from apalachicola
to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from mexico
beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Update... Humphreys
near term... Dobbs
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Dobbs
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Dobbs
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 6 mi39 min W 13 G 16 85°F 88°F1012.9 hPa
PCBF1 8 mi39 min W 13 G 15 84°F 83°F1012.8 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 52 mi39 min W 5.1 G 12 84°F 86°F1012.9 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 54 mi84 min WSW 7 83°F 81°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL10 mi76 minSW 78.00 miFair84°F79°F85%1012.7 hPa
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL13 mi73 minWSW 1110.00 miFair84°F79°F85%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from ECP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW9W12SW12E3E3E5S10S11S12SW14SW15
G21
SW9SW7SW8
1 day agoCalmNW7N5E4N4NW3CalmNW6N3NW4N53NW63NW5NW8NW8NW7NW9NW6NW3NW3SW3W4
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmSW3CalmNW4CalmNW5W4W4CalmCalm3S8SW10S12SW11SW9SW4NW8CalmNE8NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Bayou, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Alligator Bayou
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:18 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:53 PM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.911.21.31.41.41.41.31.210.80.60.50.30.20.20.10.20.20.30.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.811.11.21.31.31.31.31.21.110.80.60.50.40.30.30.20.30.30.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.