Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:12 AM

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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 830 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am cdt Monday - .
Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast near 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy.Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Wednesday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest around 5 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 930 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis -
another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected during from late this evening through early Monday morning. Starting Monday morning, pressure gradients will gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FXUS62 KTAE 290141 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY

UPDATE
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The main update this evening was to nudge overnight wind speeds over the northeast Gulf enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory until about sunrise. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure off the Carolinas keeps southeasterly breezes in the forecast through at least Monday. Moisture in the lower levels is forecast to increase enough to possibly get a shower or two going Monday afternoon. Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting the best opportunity for that being in the western Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. These trends will be monitored, but a quick look at forecast soundings show enough moisture below H7 for a 10 to 20 percent chance for the areas mentioned earlier.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit cooler than the past couple of nights, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s with the middle to upper 60s along the immediate coast. Forecast highs are expected to reach into the middle 80s.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A shortwave vorticity maxima across the mid levels that has detached from the main jet stream is expected to propagate eastward through northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia Monday night through Tuesday night. This will bring the weeks only rain chances to portions of the region across SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. PoPs have slightly increased once again from yesterday to now 30-35% across the aforementioned areas.
This is likely due to the increased confidence of the event, along with slightly higher PWATs forecast in the 1.2 inch range. These PWATS will allow for more rainfall to reach the surface than previously forecast/anticipated. Showers will still remain isolated in nature, and QPF will generally remain around 0.25 inches or less.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The forecast area will generally return to dry conditions in the wake of the mid level disturbance that is expected to exit the region prior to Wednesday morning. In the shortwaves wake, mid and upper level ridging is expected to build back over the southeast.
The upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the region through the end of the work week before an upper level trough digs equatorward through the middle Mississippi valley, which will help stream moisture back into the area. Although the trough is expected to lift to the northeast, which will keep much of the forcing for ascent well north of the region, the excess moisture will help lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing late Friday. Looking into next weekend, another shortwave impulse in the southern stream looks to exit northern Mexico and Texas, which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday next week. Overall, as the upper level ridge builds over the southeast, temperatures will run much above normal, with highs climbing into the low 90s, and lows dipping into the low 60s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Easterly winds this evening will become southeasterly overnight and more southerly by Monday afternoon. Winds will likely be gusty (up to 20kts) again for the ECP terminal during the afternoon hours. Clouds are expected to be few to scattered throughout the TAF period, remaining VFR with fair weather cumulus developing during the afternoon. There is a minimal chance for light showers around the DHN terminal following 18z Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Have nudged up overnight wind speeds across the northeast Gulf just enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. One last nocturnal surge of E/SE wind will develop over the next couple hours and expand overnight across the northeast Gulf. It will then ease around sunrise.

From CWF synopsis...Another surge of strong east to southeast breezes is expected during from late this evening through early Monday morning. Starting Monday morning, pressure gradients will gradually relax. A small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast and eastern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, then persist through Friday. This will bring mainly light and gentle breezes for the second half of this week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue Monday as moisture levels tick up the next couple of days. There may be enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or two, mainly over the western Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama Monday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue with widespread wetting rains not anticipated through at least the middle of the week. Locally high dispersions remain a concern for across southeastern Alabama.
When coupled with the recent dry spell, this could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions Monday. Dispersions are forecast to remain high for portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Minor flooding continues along much of the Lower Suwannee River, though the river is falling in a characteristically slow fashion.
At Wilcox, the river recently fell just below flood stage, so was able to cancel the Flood Warning there. The Flood Warning continues at Rock Bluff, Branford, and Manatee Springs. Manatee Springs is forecast to be the last river forecast point to fall below flood stage on Thursday morning.

No new or additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 61 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 20 Panama City 66 81 66 81 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 62 84 63 85 / 0 20 10 40 Albany 60 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 61 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 58 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 71 76 67 78 / 0 10 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

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Lynn Haven
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Sun -- 01:03 AM CDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:58 PM CDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:21 PM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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