Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:56PM Monday June 26, 2017 10:38 PM CDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:37AMMoonset 10:22PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 930 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming light. Smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Smooth to a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 930 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis..A broad surface ridge of high pressure over the northern plains states will build southeast through midweek, then shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic later in the week. A light to moderate offshore flow will continue through Tuesday morning followed by a light southerly flow by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds will become better established over the marine area by midweek as the surface ridge to the north shifts east.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 270244 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
944 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 28.06z. Could see a
brief period of MVFR CIGS in and around an isolated shower or
thunderstorm Tue afternoon. Winds will be mostly northeast to
east at 3 to 8 knots through the forecast pd. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 634 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... MostlyVFR conditions through 28.00z. Could see a
brief period of MVFR CIGS in and around an isolated shower or
thunderstorm Tue afternoon. Winds will be northeast to east at 3
to 8 knots through the forecast pd. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 359 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
near term now through Tuesday ...

a generally zonal mid level flow pattern prevails across our
forecast area this afternoon on the base of a broad upper level
trough that extends across much of the eastern conus. A surface
ridge of high pressure meanwhile continues to build southward across
the mississippi and tennessee valley regions and into the central
gulf coast states this afternoon. Area radars are detecting no
precipitation across the area this afternoon, with visible satellite
imagery only showing scattered to occasionally broken mid and high
clouds moving overhead. A pleasantly drier airmass is in place over
our area courtesy of the building surface ridge with dewpoints in
the 50s to around 60 over most areas. The one exception is near the
immediate coast where a weak seabreeze has developed, with light
southerly winds bringing dewpoints up to near 70 around the destin
area.

Little change to the overall pattern is forecast through the next 24
hours. The broad upper trough does shift eastward some through
Tuesday afternoon, but a general zonal to slightly northwest flow
aloft continues over our area, while the surface ridge continues to
build from the ohio and tennessee valleys to the southeastern
states. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through the
period. Dry weather is anticipated through Tuesday morning. Enough
moisture convergence and instability may become available to aid in
the development of isolated showers storms along a weak seabreeze
over the western fl panhandle and portions of southwest al by
Tuesday afternoon, but pops should be 20% or less. Lows tonight are
forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s inland to 70-75 near the
immediate coast and beaches. Highs Tuesday should warm to around 90
inland with mid to upper 80s expected along the immediate coast and
beaches. 21
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ...

the upper trough axis along the east coast of the country will move
offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak northwesterly flow on
the back side of the trough will likely keep weather conditions dry
over most of the forecast area, as precipitable water values remain
below seasonal normals for this time of year. Expect any (coastal)
showers or thunderstorms to push offshore after sunset Tuesday as
the flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal.

Boundary layer winds become more southerly for Wednesday, allowing
low-level moisture to start its return. Even with a weakness
remaining in the upper ridge over the northwestern gulf of mexico
through Thursday, any convection is expected to be dominated by
mesoscale processes (e.G., sea and bay breezes). This should allow
greater odds for seeing showers and thunderstorms for mid-week, with
the greatest coverage expected to be along and south of the us-84
corridor Wednesday. Most of the convection should be diurnally
driven, with any lingering showers or thunderstorms largely
confined to coastal areas and offshore after sunset.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

weakness in the upper-level ridge weakens as it retrogrades into
northeastern mexico. This should allow broad ridging to continue
over the southern u.S., with a more-or-less zonal pattern in place.

The overall trend will indicate slightly warming afternoon
temperatures as overall soil moisture continues to decrease.

Regarding convection... I'm still struggling with a determination of
convective coverage through the long term portion of the forecast. A
generally subsident motion, thanks to broad ridging in place, will
likely limit convective coverage somewhat. However, a shortwave
trough is forecast to slightly amplify the flow by day 6 7 as it
dives toward the upper midwest. In addition, with low-level ridging
centered in the atlantic, southerly winds through the boundary layer
should continue to deepen moisture over the region. There are some
indications that precipitable water values may rise to 1 or 2
standard deviations above climatological means by the weekend.

All-in-all, it's a conundrum between subsidence and moisture. And
given everything i'm seeing, i'll keep shower and thunderstorm
probabilities in "chance" territory through the weekend, which is a
skosh below blended guidance. 02
marine...

weak surface ridging is forecast to extend across the northern gulf
of mexico through Tuesday night. A light to moderate offshore flow
is expected to develop in the evening through early morning hours,
with light to moderate onshore flow returning during the day,
especially near bays and sounds. A light to moderate onshore flow
becomes established Wednesday and continues into the weekend as
surface high pressure becomes oriented from the western atlantic to
eastern gulf of mexico. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi69 min WNW 2.9 80°F 1017.3 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi49 min W 5.8 G 5.8 81°F 83°F1 ft1016.6 hPa (+0.9)71°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi99 min NNE 6 81°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.0)
WBYA1 20 mi51 min 82°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi57 min 82°F 82°F1016.9 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi51 min NE 9.9 G 12 82°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi39 min N 8.9 G 9.9 82°F 1016.9 hPa (+1.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi69 min N 11 81°F 1016.9 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi69 min N 5.1 80°F 1016.9 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi69 min NNE 8.9 82°F 1016.9 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi69 min N 1.9 77°F 1016.9 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi51 min 79°F 66°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi51 min N 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 80°F1017.7 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi57 min 79°F 80°F1017 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi114 min N 2.9 79°F 1018 hPa68°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi44 minE 710.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1016.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi43 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F64°F71%1016.8 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair72°F66°F83%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE8NE5NE4NE3NE4N5NE3N5NE6N5N9NE4N4CalmCalmNW4S7
G14
S9S10CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW5N6N5NW5NW3SE5E9E3E3CalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoSE5
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S7SW6SW7SW5SW5--SW12
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W6----SW9W5W5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:15 AM CDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:28 PM CDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.70.91.11.31.51.822.121.91.81.51.20.90.50.30.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:53 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:21 PM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.30.40.50.60.80.90.9110.90.90.80.60.50.40.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.