Monday, August21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:25PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:30 PM CDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 7:33PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 421 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming southwest. Seas around 2 feet then 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 421 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis..A weak surface ridge of high pressure will build west over the eastern and north central gulf through early Wednesday leading to a light east to southeast wind flow through mid week, becoming west to southwest later in the week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected each day through the week with the best coverage occurring during the overnight and early morning hours each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 220159 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
859 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Convection has faded away this evening with only
a few areas of light stratiform rain left over. Almost all areas
are expected to be dry in a few hours with a quiet overnight
expected. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm along the
coast in the predawn hours with precip waters hovering around 2
inches and an upper low to our southwest which will allow a few
storms to develop offshore during the marine diurnal MAX and
potentially impact areas close to the coast. Also cannot rule out
some patchy fog overnight, but currently not expecting anything

Just sent the forecast update to lower rain chances for the rest
of the evening as well as adjust temps dewpoints based on
observations. 34 jfb

Prev discussion issued 658 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance... Lingering isolated to scattered shra tsra will
impact portions of the region early this evening before a gradual
diminishing trend is expected through the next couple of hours.

Additional scattered storms will develop near the immediate coast
Tuesday morning and develop inland through the day. Localized
MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible near the stronger
storms.VFR otherwise prevails through the forecast period. 21
prev discussion... Issued 408 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017
near term now through Tuesday ... Broad upper low centered over
the north central gulf south of the mouth of the ms river this
afternoon will continue to shift west through tonight leading to
deeper moisture in the boundary layer this afternoon through early
tue afternoon then slowly decreasing from east to west later in the
day. Increased lift or mid level forcing is noted with this pattern
as several vort lobes continue to rotate counter-clockwise around
the main low center helping to generate the better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across most of the lower half of the
forecast area this afternoon and this evening, shifting south over
the adjacent gulf waters overnight and early tue, then forming over
coastal areas by mid to late morning, spreading further inland with
a weak seabreeze circulation by early to mid afternoon. For now the
best coverage for daytime convection on Tue will be over northern
and western sections of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon
as enhanced lift ahead of the weak seabreeze boundary moves
northward across these areas during MAX heating in the afternoon.

Model soundings depict the deeper moisture across most of the
forecast area tonight through Tue with marginal lapse rates in the
boundary layer through the period suggesting the main threat with
the stronger thunderstorms will be gusty straight line winds around
40 knots or less... Very heavy rainfall with maybe some nuisance type
flooding locally and frequent cloud to ground lightning. For later
this evening and overnight skies will become partly cloudy to the
north inland from the coast with better clouds remaining over
coastal areas stretching well offshore. Some patchy fog will also be
possible over inland areas generally along and north of the i-10

With a better moisture across the region lows tonight will be a tad
warmer than last night ranging from the lower to middle 70s for most
inland areas and the mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.

With better clouds tomorrow compared to last weekend highs Tue will
be a tad cooler climbing to the lower to middle 90s for most inland
areas and the upper 80s to near 90 near the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... High
pressure builds into the central and northern gulf as the upper
tropospheric trough moves west and settles over the western gulf,
where it remains for the duration of the short term. To the
north, a longwave trough over the great lakes deepens
southeastward over the appalachian spine, pushing a weak surface
front south before stalling it just north of the local area.

South of this front, a hot and humid summertime airmass
characterized by pwats around 2.0 inches will set the stage for a
series of upper shortwaves rotating around the base of the
longwave trough to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day through the short term period. Given the return of more
substantial deep-layer moisture and instability, as well as the
additional upper dynamics provided by the passing shortwaves,
storms could become strong enough to produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy downpours. Temperatures continue to run
around or slightly above seasonal, with highs in the low 90's and
lows in the mid 70's. 49
long term Friday through Monday ... We continue to see a wet
pattern over the weekend as high pressure remains over the
southern and central gulf and a series of impulses rotate around
the upper trough to our north and act on a moist and unstable
summertime airmass. Some of these storms could become strong
enough to produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours. The forecast heading into early next week remains
highly uncertain at this time, as models are struggling to resolve
what will happen with the remnants of harvey as they move onshore
somewhere in mexico or far southern texas. The euro remains the
much wetter solution, stalling the system over southern texas
before it gets caught up in another mid-latitude trough digging
into the eastern conus, eventually pushing it northeast up the
gulf coast and towards the local area. This would mean very wet
weather for us early next week. Meanwhile, the GFS pushes the
remnants of harvey well inland into central texas where it
eventually dissipates, leaving an eastern seaboard trough open to
push drier air into our area from the northeast, keeping our
weather clear and dry. Thus, model trends over the course of this
week will warrant close monitoring as the harvey situation in the
bay of campeche unfolds and the models are able to grab a better
handle on what will happen with its leftovers.

Expect the weekend to remain around seasonal in terms of
temperature, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80's to low
90's areawide and overnight lows ranging from upper 60's to low
70's inland and mid to upper 70's along the coast. 49
marine... Weak high pressure will continue to build west over the
north central gulf through the week leading to mostly a light east
to southeast wind flow through early Tue afternoon, shifting mostly
southwest to west by late Tue afternoon then remaining mostly
northwest to southwest through the remaining of the week as the
surface ridge settles further west over the north central gulf.

Expect mostly scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through the remainder of the week with the best chance of
measurable rain occurring during the overnight and morning hours
through the forecast period. Most of the stronger thunderstorms
will be accompanied with gusty straightline winds around 30 knots
or less, frequent lightning, very heavy rainfall and choppy to
rough seas. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi61 min SE 7 84°F 1020 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi41 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 85°F 88°F2 ft1019.6 hPa (+0.9)76°F
WBYA1 20 mi43 min 84°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi106 min 77°F 76°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi49 min 83°F 89°F1019.9 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi43 min SE 9.9 G 12 84°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi31 min ESE 12 G 14 85°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.5)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi61 min SE 8.9 83°F 1019.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi61 min SE 8.9 85°F 1020 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi61 min SE 11 85°F 1019.6 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi31 min NNE 1.9 79°F 1020 hPa (+1.0)
PTOA1 40 mi43 min 79°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi43 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 77°F 87°F1020.5 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi49 min 79°F 87°F1019.7 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi106 min N 4.1 76°F 1020 hPa73°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair78°F78°F100%1020 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi95 minSE 510.00 miLight Rain83°F73°F74%1019.3 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1020 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmNW4NW5SE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4N11NE6NE4CalmSE4SE6SE5SE6S8S7S7SE5SE4E6CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN5N4NE6N5S8SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM CDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 07:25 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:34 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
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Mon -- 12:42 AM CDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 01:54 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.