Sunday, October22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:11PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:19 AM CDT (06:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:24AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1027 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southwest. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers. Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1027 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly wind flow will gradually become southerly tonight through Sunday evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front offshore Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday night into early Monday morning. After the frontal passage expect a moderate to strong west to northwest flow across the marine zones that persists through midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 220459 aac
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1159 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

06z issuance...VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of the
night with the exception of MVFR conditions in patchy fog over
interior areas. Showers and storms develop over the western
portion of the area Sunday morning then spread eastward over the
remainder of the area through Sunday evening as a cold front
approaches from the west. Light easterly winds tonight increasing
to 10 to 15 knots Sunday morning and become southeasterly. 29

Prev discussion issued 922 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... Made slight adjustment to overnight pops to account for
the dissipating showers and latest high-res guidance. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track and no further changes are needed
at this time. 49
prev discussion... Issued 626 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00z issuance...VFR conditions prevail overnight although some
patchy light fog will be possible over interior areas. For Sunday,
MVFR conditions in showers and storms develop over the western
portion of the area Sunday morning, with the showers and storms
spreading eastward to affect most of the remainder of the area
through the afternoon hours. Easterly winds tonight of generally
5 knots become southeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots Sunday
morning. 29
prev discussion... Issued 349 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
near term now through Sunday ... The upper level high pressure
over the southeast atlantic coast will shift slightly eastward.

Meanwhile, a medium amplified upper level trough extending from
south central canada to east texas will shift east over the great
plains. Surface ridge of high pressure across the southeast states
will continue to weaken as a weak surface low pressure area or
weak inverted trough forms over the north central gulf of mexico.

This pattern will keep a light southeasterly surface wind flow and
low level moisture across the area, with skies varying from
partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy.

The ongoing isolated light rain showers across extreme southwest
alabama and southeast mississippi will dissipate through mid evening
with loss of daytime surface heating. Isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms will then increase over the gulf waters and along the
immediate coastal sections after midnight. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will then increase significantly on Sunday ahead of the
approaching upper trough, becoming widespread along and west of
the tombigbee river, with scattered to numerous coverages to the
east. A few of the afternoon thunderstorms along and west of the
tombigbee river could become strong to marginally severe as mlcape
values increase to near 1000 j kg and sfc-1km SRH values approach
100 m2 s2.

Low temperatures tonight will be around 15 degrees above normal
ranging from 64 to 69 degrees inland areas, with low 70s along the
immediate coastal sections. High temperatures Sunday will be 2 to 5
degrees above normal, ranging from 79 to 84 degrees. 22
short term Sunday night through Tuesday night ... The latest
(21.12z) guidance has shown better agreement with the geo-potential
height fields aloft. Will begin the short term with a sharp mid-
level trof axis approaching the lower ms river delta Sunday night.

East of this trof, deep layer ascent becomes maximized over the
deep south within an environment that contains anomalously high
deep moisture levels. Pwat's to increase near 2 inches. A somewhat
faster net eastward progression of the better dynamics and
showers and storms is also seen in the latest guidance over the
central gulf coast. Still may see some instances of nuisance,
urban type flooding over areas that typically do not drain well in
moderate to heavier rain events. Will maintain storm total QPF at
a range averaging 1 to 2 inches. Although a few pockets of
locally higher amounts are possible, with the faster and more
consistent solutions, the threat of seeing widespread higher rain
amounts above 2 inches Sunday night appears to have been lessened.

As rains move east Sunday night, causing local airmass to
begin to stabilize along with relatively weak low level south to
southwest flow, appears the threat for severe storms going into
Sunday evening trends low. Still could see an occurrence of a few
strong evening storms with potential of producing brief locally
strong wind gusts on the leading edge of the eastward moving
convective band.

Cold front is expected to push across the region Monday morning,
with chances of showers and storms tapering off from west to east
behind the front during the day. With deep layer moisture having
been scoured out by Monday's frontal passage, a secondary frontal
passage early Tuesday morning comes thru dry but will bring a
more pronounced lowering in deep layer thickness values resulting
in cooler temperatures along with a much drier airmass. Highs on
Tuesday expected to be near seasonal normals for the latter half
of october, ranging in the lower 70s interior to near 75 southern
zones. Overnight lows Tuesday night, much cooler and well below
climo with mid 40s along and north of i-10 and beach areas in the
upper 40s lower 50s. 10
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... A temperature forecast
into the middle of the upcoming week due to dry deep levels with
surface high pressure diving southward thru texas Wednesday then
building east over the gulf Thursday. Coolest daytime highs remain
in the Wednesday time-frame with numbers ranging in the mid upper
60s for much of the local area. Highs edge slightly higher with each
day thereafter, lifting into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the
medium range. Another unseasonably cool night Wednesday night,
lower mid 40s along and north of i-10 and beach areas in the upper
40s lower 50s, will also reflect a moderating trend by heading into
the week's end, lifting to the mid to upper 50s interior to mid 60s
coast by Saturday morning. A small chance of showers and storms
return to the forecast Friday and Saturday. 10
marine... A moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly wind flow
will gradually become southerly through Sunday evening as a cold
front approaches from the west. The front will move across the marine
area on Monday, leading to a moderate to strong west to northwest
flow that persists through midweek. 22

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for flz202-204-

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 3 pm cdt Sunday for gmz650-655-670-

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi49 min 79°F 1019.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi89 min SSE 19 G 23 79°F7 ft1018.7 hPa (-0.4)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi79 min E 11 78°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.3)
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi94 min 69°F 1019 hPa68°F
WBYA1 20 mi49 min 77°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi49 min 74°F 75°F1020 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi49 min SE 19 G 23 79°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi79 min ESE 17 G 19 79°F 1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi79 min NE 8 73°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.7)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi79 min SE 13 78°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi79 min SE 17 78°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi49 min NE 4.1 72°F 1019.6 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi49 min ENE 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 76°F1019.7 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi49 min 72°F 69°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi49 min 72°F 78°F1019.6 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi94 min ESE 11 77°F 1020 hPa70°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi24 minESE 7 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F67°F73%1019.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi23 minENE 6 miFair73°F69°F87%1019.4 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi24 minENE 310.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE6NE5E6E5SE7SE6
1 day agoN4NW4NW4NW4NW4N5N4NE6E6E10
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmNE6N5NE4NW4NE6E8

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Sun -- 12:12 AM CDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
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Sun -- 02:25 AM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:49 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.