Sunday, December17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 17, 2017 7:48 AM CST (13:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:57AMMoonset 5:45PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 343 Am Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Patchy fog. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Areas of fog.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Areas of fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 343 Am Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis..A moderate to strong onshore wind flow will continue through mid morning today before gradually subsiding through the early part of this week. Showers and Thunderstorms can be expected today through Monday. Areas of fog, likely becoming dense at times, can be expected as well into the middle part of this week, especially over nearshore waters and area bays and sounds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug

Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 171132
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
532 am cst Sun dec 17 2017

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12z issuance... MVFR conditions currently over southeast
mississippi and southwest alabama expected to continue spreading
east across the remainder of the area today. Showers and storms
move in from the south and west throughout the day, resulting in
locally lower CIGS vis and perhaps some gusty winds. Otherwise, south
winds around 10 to 15 knots this afternoon become light overnight
tonight as patchy fog develops near the coast and ceilings lower
to ifr levels. Fog could be dense in spots, with visibilities down
to under a mile at times. 49

Prev discussion issued 446 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
near term now through Sunday night ... Southwest deep-layer flow
persists over the area through the near term between a large upper
high over the northern caribbean and a deep longwave trough over
the western conus. Embedded within this southwest flow, a potent
shortwave trough kicks quickly northeast from texas to the great
lakes region to start the period. A weak surface low associated
with this upper impulse similarly moves northeast, albeit from the
western gulf into the lower mississippi river valley. As it
approaches our area, this low pushes a warm front north towards
the i-20 corridor. South of this front, the gradient between the
surface low to our west and building high pressure to our east
forms a well- established onshore flow over our area, which
results in a rapid influx of gulf moisture. The surface low then
weakens and passes to our north as it is quickly outrun by its
parent shortwave, which dampens and merges with the northern jet
over the atlantic.

What does this mean for our area? A remnant boundary, leftover by
the weakening surface low will act on a moistening and destabilizing
boundary layer, leading to an increase in rain chances from west
to east today and tonight. Some locations along the coast could
see a few showers and storms out ahead of this boundary as well.

Patchy dense fog will also become increasingly possible today and
tonight (particularly closer to the coast) as the warm, moist
boundary layer air overruns the cold nearshore and bay waters. It
is possible that some areas along the immediate alabama shoreline
see patchy fog develop as early as this morning, with locations
farther east seeing it begin to develop later in the day and
overnight tonight as the low-level moisture plume expands in that
direction. 49
short term Monday through Tuesday night ... Upper high pressure
area centered over the bahamas will drift slowly southwestward
through the short term, while an upper cutoff low over the
southwest CONUS northwest mexico border drifts slowly eastward to
the lower mississippi river region. A weak surface high pressure
ridge will remain across the southeast states through Tuesday
afternoon, and then weaken and shift southeast as an area of low
pressure forming over east texas on Tuesday moves east to the
lower mississippi river region by late Tuesday night. Deep layer
moisture will fluctuate across the region, with precipitable water
values ranging from 1 to 1.9 inches.

Scattered to numerous rain showers along with a few embedded
thunderstorms will occur on Monday as upper level impulses
traverse the region, followed by rain tapering off Monday night.

Rain chances will then gradually increase again Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the upper low approaches the region. The best of
precipitation will occur after midnight with scattered to numerous
rain showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, spreading
from west to east.

Widespread rainfall amounts through the short term will range
from 0.4 to 0.6 west of the alabama river. Locally higher amounts
near 1 inch will be possible across the inland portions of
southeast mississippi and southwest alabama. Widespread rainfall
amounts east of the alabama river will range from 0.2 to 0.4, with
locally higher amounts near 0.75 across south central alabama.

Sea fog will continue to develop through the short term as surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s move northward over the cool
gulf and bay waters. Light southerly winds will allow the sea fog
to advect far inland at times. While the inland areas will see the
fog dissipate during the daytime hours, some of our coastal zones
could see extended periods of dense fog lasting throughout the
daytime hours. 22
long term Wednesday through Saturday ... The cutoff upper low
pressure area will move slowly eastward and evolve into an open
wave as it passes over the southeast conus. Scattered to numerous
rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday
morning will taper off from west to east throughout the day as the
upper wave moves east of the region. A dry period will then occur
Wednesday night through Thursday evening, followed by
precipitation chances increasing once again as a longwave upper
trough digs south over much of north america. Additional
widespread rainfall amounts late Thursday through Saturday are
expected to range from 0.25 to 1 inch. 22
marine... A moderate to strong southeasterly flow continues this
morning, before slowly subsiding and shifting to southerly today
through midweek. A small craft advisory remains in effect for open
gulf waters out 20 to 60 nm until 9am cst this morning, with
exercise caution level winds thereafter into Monday. In the wake of
the recent cold spell, the near shore waters and area bays are still
quite cold. The combination of these cold waters and warm, moist
onshore flow will result in the formation of marine fog through
midweek, likely becoming widespread and perhaps dense at times. Will
continue to wait and see how late today the more southerly flow and
better moisture develops before issuing a marine dense fog advisory.

Will likely need an advisory for the marine area at some point
during the early part of this week, as dense fog will lead to an
increased probability of hazardous boating impacts. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 9 am cst this morning for gmz670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi48 min 64°F 1021 hPa (+0.7)
WBYA1 20 mi48 min 56°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi63 min 52°F 1021 hPa51°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi48 min 56°F 53°F1021.9 hPa (+0.7)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi48 min SE 20 G 21 65°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi48 min SE 13 G 14 62°F 1019.7 hPa (+0.5)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi78 min ESE 12 56°F 1020 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi78 min ESE 9.9 59°F 1020 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi78 min SE 18 61°F 1020 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi48 min ESE 9.9 58°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.3)
PTOA1 40 mi48 min 56°F 54°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi48 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 55°F1020.4 hPa (+0.0)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi48 min 57°F 55°F1020.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi73 minSSE 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast65°F62°F92%1021 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi52 minSSE 9 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1021.5 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi53 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F55°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE5NE4E7E7E5E6SE10E6NE4NE3NE4NE3NE3NE4E4E4E5E4CalmSE9
1 day agoN8N7N5N8N7N5N7N6N4N5N3N6N6N5NW4NW5NW4CalmN3NE3N4CalmN4NE5
2 days agoCalmW4W8W7W8W6W6W3SW5CalmW3W6CalmW5NW4NW4Calm----N5W6N9N8N9

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
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Sun -- 05:57 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM CST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:53 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:46 PM CST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
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Sun -- 05:56 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:35 AM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.