Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:17PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:12 PM CST (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 920 Am Cst Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft should exercise caution today...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday morning...
Today..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..South winds 18 to 23 knots becoming southwest. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Friday..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Friday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 4 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 920 Am Cst Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will develop tonight and continue through early Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to move across the marine area Wednesday evening leading to a strong northerly wind flow through Thursday. A moderate to strong northerly wind flow will persist through the remainder of the week as high pressure slowly builds east across the western and north central gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 211748 aac
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1148 am cst Mon jan 21 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Per latest observations, forecasters have made some
minor adjustments to dewpoints, lowering these a bit into the
afternoon given efficient mixing from drier lower level airmass.

This resulted in an adjustment to rh values as well. 10

Prev discussion issued 1125 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

18z issuance... Sky vsby ok in the near term withVFR conditions.

High pressure axis results in a light northeast wind thru the
remainder of the day. As high pressure moves more eastward into
tonight, the resultant light east to southeast flow develops with
indications of MVFR CIGS forming late in the night. 10
prev discussion... Issued 555 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance...VFR conditions through about 22.06z followed by
MVFR CIGS through 22.12z. Winds will be northeast to east at 6 to
10 knots through 22.00z becoming southeast at 8 to 12 knots through
22.12z. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 500 am cst Mon jan 21 2019
near term now through Monday night ... A weak upper ridge of
high pressure located over the mid section of the country will
shift east to the eastern CONUS through tonight. Near the surface
high pressure stretching from the great lakes to the northern gulf
of mexico will shift east to the mid atlantic region and eastern
seaboard through tonight. With this pattern a better onshore flow
develops tonight and early Tue leading to better moisture return
mainly in the lower levels of the boundary layer in the near term
period. Expect sunny conditions for most locations in the forecast
area through mid to late afternoon followed by increasing low
clouds this evening and overnight.

Temperatures will start off cold today with a light to moderate
freeze for most inland locations early this morning followed by
slightly higher temps today compared to yesterday. Lows tonight will
also be warmer compared to this morning due to better clouds and
mixing along with a developing onshore flow. Highs today will climb
to the lower to middle 50s for most locations followed by lows in
the middle to upper 30s for most inland areas and the lower to
middle 40s near the immediate coast. 32 ee
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... A southwesterly
mid to upper level flow pattern will return to the north central
gulf coast region on Tuesday in advance of the next deep trough
that will be moving into the central and southern plains. An
associated area of surface low pressure will lift northeast from
the central plains to the upper midwest on Tuesday, while surface
high pressure shifts eastward across the eastern seaboard and
adjacent western atlantic. A southeasterly to southerly low level
flow pattern will return to our region between these features on
Tuesday, allowing for increasing low level moisture Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Weak isentropic ascent will bring a
chance of a few showers mainly across central and western portions
of our forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. The combination of a
strengthening low level jet and increasing southwesterly flow
aloft ahead of the trough axis to the west will favor increasing
moisture and ascent over our western zones Tuesday evening into
late Tuesday night. We expect increasing coverage of rain showers
especially along and west of the tombigbee river Tuesday night,
where we will continue to carry a 60-80% chance of rain. A few
showers will also be possible over eastern portions of the cwa,
where pops will range between 20-50%. Temperatures should remain
relatively cool across the region Tuesday given the increasing
cloud cover and precipitation chances, and expect highs to range
in the upper 50s over the interior, with lower to mid 60s along
the coast. Increasing low level moisture will result in a warmer
night Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the 50s.

Deep moisture and ascent will continue to overspread our forecast
area Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper trough axis
shifts from the plains toward the mississippi valley region, and
as the associated cold front moves across our region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Guidance is in relatively good agreement
with placement of precipitation on Wednesday, and will have
definite rain chances in the 90-100% range across our forecast
area. Weak instability will also support isolated embedded
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches will be
possible with this event. Some guidance continues to indicate
slightly better forcing and an associated potential for locally
heavier rainfall amounts near the immediate coast and perhaps into
portions of south central alabama. Precipitation should gradually
decrease from west to east across the area Wednesday evening into
late Wednesday night. A colder airmass will spread across the
area behind the cold front, and we may have to monitor for a brief
period of precipitation switching to light snow flurries over our
western and northwestern zones prior to ending late Wednesday
night. Given how quickly the drier airmass overspreads the region,
no accumulation or impacts would be anticipated. Highs Wednesday
will range in the 60s, with lows Wednesday night falling into the
lower to mid 30s over our western and northwestern zones, with
upper 30s to mid 40s farther east and southeast. 21
long term Thursday through Sunday ... Our forecast area will
remain on the base of a broad upper level trough that will
encompass the eastern CONUS late in the week. Surface high
pressure will build across the region Thursday, and may be
followed by a reinforcing cold front Friday. Temperatures are
expected to remain below normal, with highs both days only looking
to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, and possibly colder over our
northern zones on Friday. A light freeze may impact portions of
the interior Thursday night, but the coldest night currently
appears to be on Friday night, where most areas away from the
coast may fall into the mid to upper 20s. A dry airmass will
preclude precipitation chances both days. The forecast for this
weekend continues to look interesting as operational medium range
guidance has come into a little better agreement with bringing a
deepening upper level trough across our region Saturday night into
Sunday, with an associated area of surface low pressure also
potentially moving across the northern gulf of mexico. These
features will bring an increasing chance of precipitation across
our CWA Saturday night into Sunday, with the best chances
potentially near the coast closer to the low pressure system. We
may need to monitor the colder airmass spreading on the back side
of the passing low pressure system Saturday night, but for now
have kept precipitation in the form of rain across the region. We
otherwise expect the trend of below normal temperatures to persist
through the weekend. 21
marine... A moderate to strong east to southeast wind flow will
develop tonight and continue through early Wed ahead of a strong
cold front approaching from the west. The cold front is expected to
move across the marine area Wed evening leading to a strong
northerly wind flow through thu. As a result a small craft advisory
has been posted for the open gulf waters of al and nwfl out to 60 nm
tonight through Thu morning. A moderate to strong northerly wind
flow will persist through the remainder of the week as high pressure
slowly builds east across the western and north central gulf. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from late tonight through Thursday morning
for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from late tonight through Thursday morning
for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 9 am cst Thursday
for gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi72 min 45°F 1029.5 hPa (+0.3)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi42 min ENE 14 G 18 47°F 1029.9 hPa32°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi102 min ENE 9.9 44°F 1029.5 hPa
WBYA1 20 mi54 min 55°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi87 min 47°F 1030 hPa23°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 48°F 53°F1029.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi54 min NE 11 G 13 45°F 1029.7 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi72 min NNE 9.9 G 11 44°F 1030.2 hPa (+1.2)25°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi72 min N 13 46°F 1029.5 hPa (+1.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi72 min NNE 11 42°F 1030.1 hPa (+1.4)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi72 min NE 14 43°F 1030.8 hPa (+1.4)
MBPA1 35 mi54 min 46°F 27°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi42 min N 5.1 46°F 1030.5 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi54 min 46°F 24°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi60 min 47°F 52°F1030.5 hPa
GBRM6 47 mi132 min 47°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi17 minNE 510.00 miFair51°F22°F33%1029.5 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi16 minN 510.00 miFair52°F24°F34%1029.1 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi17 minN 310.00 miFair48°F21°F34%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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NW5N5NW4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5NE4NE4NE5N6NE7E6
1 day agoS16
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2 days agoSW6
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SW3SW5S6CalmCalmS3CalmS3SE5SE3CalmSE4SE7SE6SE4SE7SE7SE7SE4SE4S8
G14
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G19
S10
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:37 AM CST     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:05 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:59 PM CST     1.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.41.10.70.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-1-1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.811.21.41.61.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.