Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:56PM Friday June 23, 2017 12:18 PM CDT (17:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1139 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming west. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 1139 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis..Southerly winds and seas will continue to slowly diminish through this evening as the remnants of cindy track east northeast over the midsouth. Rain chances will increase over the weekend into early next week as a frontal boundary, approaching from the north, moves offshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 231637 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1137 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Remnant circulation of cindy over western ky and western
tn was shearing out to the northeast. South and west of the circulation,
a resurgence in cold cloud tops => showers storms were developing
in a northeast to southwest band over central ms. Convection was
occurring within a zone of high deep layer tropical moisture where
total pwat was in excess of 2.00 inches. To the east, a well
defined deep layer ridge was positioned from the southwest
atlantic into the eastern gulf causing a net lowering in deep
layer moisture along and east of the i-65 corridor. Considering
the placement of the deep layer moisture and daily instability
with MUCAPE values increasing to around 3000 j kg, the higher
precipitation chances remain advertised over the northwest zones.

Lower chances east of the interstate. Due to soil moisture levels
being at capacity, there remains concerns that developing showers
and storms, repeatedly moving over the same areas, will likely
result in runoff and flooding. Flash flood watches continue from
clarke co. Al to george co. Ms and points west. Many area rivers
remain in minor to moderate flood.

Coastal hazards remain high. Despite a lowering in onshore flow,
long period swell and breakers of 5 to 8 feet look to linger into
the surf zone. This results in high surf, minor beach erosion, and
dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents today. 10
marine... Small craft advisories expired mid morning and will be
replaced with small craft exercise caution headlines. Seas
lowering. 10

Prev discussion issued 657 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Areas of MVFR to ifr CIGS early this morning may
improve toVFR over portions of the forecast area later today, but
generally expecting MVFR to impact the coastal TAF sites today.

Expect scattered to numerous shra and a few tsra to develop over
southeast ms and interior southwest al later this morning and
especially into the afternoon with localized gusty winds and MVFR
to ifr conditions with the stronger storms. South winds increase
to around 15 knots with some gusts over 20 knots possible later
this morning into the afternoon before gradually diminishing to
around 10 knots by this evening. 21
prev discussion... Issued 535 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
near term now through Friday night ... Area radars detecting the
far eastern outer rain band associated with the remnants of cindy
just northwest of our forecast area. This band is expected to
shift back eastward throughout the day today, but remain northwest
of the i-65 corridor. By late this afternoon we expect scattered
to numerous rain showers along with embedded scattered
thunderstorms northwest of i-65, with some of the showers and
storms again capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall.

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will persist
overnight north of a line from mobile to andalusia, alabama.

The heavy rainfall will mainly occur this afternoon and tonight
across our northwest zones, with additional rainfall amounts up to 3
inches possible, especially where the more persistent rain band set
up.

A moderate southerly wind flow will persist through today,
especially along the coastal sections. As a result, a coastal flood
warning is back in effect for southwest alabama through 6 pm today,
and a coastal flood advisory will remain in effect for the western
florida panhandle. A high surf advisory and a high rip current risk
also remains in effect along the beaches of alabama and the western
florida panhandle.

High temperatures today will range from 85 to 90 degrees. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper
70s along the coast. 22
short term Saturday through Sunday night ... Mid level zonal flow
will sink southward into the forecast area Saturday on the base of
a large scale trough spanning much of the north central states. An
associated cold front will also push southward toward far northern
portions of our forecast area through the day Saturday. Embedded
shortwave impulses within the moist zonal flow will allow for the
development of numerous showers and thunderstorms along the
frontal zone Saturday, and will maintain high pops over inland
portions of the cwa, with high end chance pops near the immediate
coast. Precipitable water values may become enhanced to between 2"
and 2.25" across the region Saturday, which may once again lead
to potential for locally heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts will be
possible with showers and storms during the day Saturday, and
given the saturated grounds from recent heavy rains, we will have
to closely monitor for localized flash flooding potential. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday
night along the southward moving frontal boundary, and will have
the higher pops focused over central and southern portions of the
region. Highs Saturday are forecast to range in the mid to upper
80s, with lows Saturday night in the lower 70s inland to the mid
to upper 70s near the immediate coast and beaches.

The front is forecast to remain near or just south of the
immediate coast Sunday, before gradually pushing southward over
the northern gulf of mexico Sunday night. The axis of deep layer
moisture shifts southward along the boundary, and will maintain a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across all areas during the
day Sunday, with convection becoming focused farther south near
the coast and offshore by Sunday night. Highs Sunday should mostly
range in the mid 80s, with lows Sunday night trending a little
cooler in the mid to upper 60s inland behind the front, with lower
to mid 70s near the immediate coast. 21
long term Monday through Thursday ... A drier northwest to zonal
flow will prevail across interior portions of the forecast area
Monday and Tuesday as our region remains on the base of a longwave
trough that will continue to extend across much of the eastern
conus. An axis of deeper moisture may still remain in the vicinity
of coastal portions of the region per the latest ecmwf, so will
maintain a 20-30% chance of showers and storms, with the better
probabilities near the coast both Monday and Tuesday. Medium range
models are generally agreement with building an upper level ridge
across the eastern seaboard and and adjacent western atlantic
Wednesday and Thursday, allowing the axis of deeper moisture to
advect back northward over our CWA late in the extended period.

This pattern should result in increased convective coverage over
the area mid to late next week. Early morning lows remain several
degrees below normal Monday through Wednesday mornings with the
drier airmass in place, with readings in the mid to upper 60s
inland, and in the lower to mid 70s near the coast. Highs each day
through the extended should generally range in the mid to upper
80s. 21
marine... Southerly winds and seas will continue to slowly diminish
through this evening as the remnants of cindy track well inland over
the mississippi and tennessee river valleys. Rain chances will
increase over the weekend into early next week as a surface boundary
approaching from the north moves offshore. Tidal levels are also
expected to slowly recede through this evening. 22

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk until 6 pm cdt this evening for alz265-266.

High surf advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for alz265-266.

Flash flood watch until 10 pm cdt this evening for alz051>053.

Coastal flood warning until 6 pm cdt this evening for alz261>266.

Fl... High rip current risk until 6 pm cdt this evening for flz202-204-
206.

High surf advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for flz202-204-
206.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm cdt this evening for flz202-
204-206.

Ms... Flash flood watch until 10 pm cdt this evening for msz067-075-
076-078-079.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi49 min S 8 83°F 1015.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi89 min S 14 G 16 80°F 80°F5 ft1015.3 hPa (+0.8)78°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi49 min S 14
WBYA1 20 mi49 min 79°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi49 min 86°F 80°F1016.3 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi49 min S 17 G 19 81°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi79 min S 15 G 18 82°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.9)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi109 min S 17 81°F 1016.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi49 min S 16 82°F 1015.9 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi79 min S 16 81°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.7)
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 37 mi49 min S 14 81°F 1015.9 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi49 min 83°F 78°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi49 min S 11 G 16 82°F 79°F1016.1 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi49 min 82°F 79°F1015.3 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi94 min S 13 82°F 1016 hPa77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi24 minSSE 13 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F80°F88%1015.9 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi23 minS 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1016 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi24 minS 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast82°F78°F89%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15
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1 day agoSE14
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2 days agoNE8NE7----NE8NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:56 AM CDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM CDT     New Moon
Fri -- 10:37 PM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.40.60.811.31.51.71.92.12.121.91.71.410.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Nix Point, Perdido Bay, Florida
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Nix Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:04 AM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:54 PM CDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.91110.90.80.70.60.40.30.10-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.