Monday, February18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:40PM Monday February 18, 2019 2:17 PM CST (20:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:48PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 946 Am Cst Mon Feb 18 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers late in the morning.
Tonight..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 946 Am Cst Mon Feb 18 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to strong northeast wind flow will persist through early Tuesday then shift mostly southeast and diminish through Wednesday afternoon as high pressure to the north shifts east. A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue through the remainder of the week as the ridge high pressure continues along the eastern seaboard combined with a weakening cold front approaching from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kmob 181803 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1203 pm cst Mon feb 18 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Did a quick update to the current zone forecast mainly
to reflect current radar trends better keeping slight chance to
chance pops for most locations through mid afternoon. Post frontal
light rain will begin to shift southward towards the coast and
over the adjacent gulf waters late this afternoon and this
evening. Will continue to mention this precip as light rain
through this afternoon. 32 ee

Aviation
18z issuance... Expect MVFR toVFR CIGS through 19.18z. Expect
periods of light rain through mid to late afternoon gradually
moving south of the coast late today and tonight. Winds will be
mostly northeast at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts through
about 19.15z diminishing to 12 to 15 knots through 19.18z. 32 ee

Prev discussion issued 557 am cst Mon feb 18 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Gusty northerly winds have followed in the wake of
last nights cold front and ceilings have gradually improved. Gusty
northerly to northeasterly winds are expected at TAF sites through
the forecast period. MVFR ceilings early this morning are
expected to gradually improve toVFR ceilings of around 4000 to
5000 feet during the late morning into the afternoon hours.

Ceilings then gradually lower to MVFR overnight. 08
prev discussion... Issued 528 am cst Mon feb 18 2019
near term now through Monday night ... Breezy northerly winds have
followed in the wake of last night's cold front currently extending
southwestward over SW georgia... The eastern leg of choctawhatchee
bay then out over the gulf of mexico. Strong surface high pressure
ridging southward from the northern plain states will keep a north
to northeasterly windflow over the region today. Winds become more
northeast to easterly tonight as the high pressure center shifts
eastward into the great lakes region. Rainfall associated with the
front has remained very light ranging from a trace to several
hundredths of an inch. Spotty light rain showers will linger within
the main baroclinic zone behind the front through the morning hours.

Little in the way of accumulation is expected... Generally a trace to
perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Aloft the upper level
shortwave trough driving the cold front ejects northeastward along
the longwave trough. As a result, mid and upper level heights rise.

Model soundings project a strong post frontal inversion remaining
over the region especially over southern zones which will serve to
hold residual lower level moisture and cloud cover over the area.

The inversion appears weaker over areas generally north of the i-65
corridor giving that region the best chance of seeing perhaps more
blue sky today. Models project some light overrunning of the cooler
low level dome of air developing tonight along with some minor
perturbations rippling northeastward in the southwesterly flow aloft
which could produce a few sprinkles and perhaps a few hundreths of
an inch of rainfall over northern interior locations. Much cooler
weather on tap for today as high temperatures only climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland and low to mid 60s along and closer to
the coast. Overnight lows are expected to ranger from the mid to
upper 40s over interior areas with upper 40s to lower 50s closer to
the coast. 08
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

warm advection showers will be possible to start the morning
Tuesday. A subtle shortwave over northern texas embedded within the
overall longwave trough over the southwest shifts northeast
deepening a surface low over the western gulf. The initial light
showers locally Tuesday are primarily driven by the isentropic
upglide associated with this low. In addition model soundings are
showing a significant capping inversion near 850mb. As a result
little to no lightning is expected with these showers. East winds
shift southeast throughout the afternoon and evening as the surface
low moves into central louisiana and could become quite breezy along
the coast overnight.

By Wednesday morning, the southwest upper level flow becomes well
established aided by the +90kt jet MAX near eastern oklahoma.

These strong winds advect significant moisture over the central
gulf coast. Particularly near the al ms border, precipitable
water values increase overnight from 1.40 inches to +1.80 inches
which is nearing the record high for the day. This when examined
along side the 50 kts of 0-6km shear and +1000 j kg CAPE could
initiate strong storms with heavy rainfall starting late morning
Wednesday. The unidirectional nature of the shear should lead to a
southwest to northeast orientated line of strong storms
developing by the afternoon over central and southern mississippi.

Moreover with the aforementioned low continuing to track
northeast, the trailing cold front stalls meaning the eastward
progression of line of storms could be relatively slow moving.

This sets up a scenario for heavy rainfall and training storms
lasting well into the overnight hours with the main threat locally
being possible flash flooding for our interior alabama and
mississippi counties. With respect to perry, wayne, and choctaw
counties, the rainfall totals by the morning could range from 1 to 3
inches with isolated locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere west
of i-65 rain totals around 1 inch are also possible. Dj 17
long term Thursday through Sunday ...

the trough over the southwest and the bermuda ridge maintain the
southwesterly flow aloft. As a result it is likely that the
lingering moisture will keep scattered showers persisting throughout
the day Thursday which should tamper off during the overnight hours.

The wet pattern continues into the weekend with southerly flow
providing ample moisture for additional storms Friday afternoon
ahead of the next shortwave. This shortwave develops and deepens
over northern texas taking on a negative tilt late Saturday. As the
associated surface low travels northeast, the trailing cold front
initiates an eastward moving line of convection overnight into
Sunday. Throughout the weekend temperatures are expected to remain
well above normal in the upper 70s with minimums in the low 60s
though these abnormal temperatures should subside late Sunday
following the frontal passage. Dj 17
marine... A moderate to strong northerly flow is following in the
wake of the cold front moving southeastward across gulf waters.

Hazardous conditions for small craft are developing and are expected
to continue through late Tuesday night, especially over the gulf
waters, mississippi sound and southern mobile bay. Northerly winds
transition to a moderate to strong easterly flow tonight into
Tuesday and turn gradually to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. A
light to moderate southerly to southeasterly flow develops Wednesday
and continues into Friday night. 08

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 3 am cst Wednesday for gmz631-632-650-
655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi27 min NNE 19 G 25 60°F 4 ft47°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi77 min NNE 18 56°F 1020 hPa (-1.0)
WBYA1 20 mi29 min 64°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi92 min 55°F 1021 hPa42°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi29 min NNE 7 G 16 59°F 63°F1020.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi29 min NE 24 G 26 55°F 1020.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi77 min NNE 23 G 26 55°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.6)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi47 min NNE 22 53°F 1020 hPa
MBPA1 35 mi29 min 54°F 48°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi29 min NNE 8 G 9.9 54°F 60°F1021.6 hPa
PTOA1 40 mi29 min 53°F 52°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi35 min 54°F 57°F1021.5 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi92 min NNE 15 53°F 1022 hPa44°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last
24hr
S5
G8
S7
S6
S7
S9
S9
S10
S9
G12
S9
W1
G6
SE1
NW5
G8
N11
G17
N7
G12
N9
G13
N8
G15
N10
G18
N8
G18
N10
G14
N10
G16
N7
G13
N8
G14
N10
G14
N8
G14
1 day
ago
S8
G11
SE2
G7
S5
G11
S4
S4
S2
SE1
W3
S4
--
S6
S5
S4
S5
S9
S9
S8
G11
S7
S7
S7
S7
G10
SE7
G10
S2
G5
S4
G9
2 days
ago
S9
S8
G12
S6
S5
--
S5
E1
S2
G6
--
S2
NW3
W3
G6
S2
G7
SE1
G4
S1
G5
SE1
SE1
G4
S2
W6
W5
G8
S1
G5
S7
G10
S9
S5
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi42 minNE 8 G 2110.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1020.7 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi21 minNNE 1410.00 miOvercast59°F41°F51%1020.4 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi22 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast54°F42°F67%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrS8S8
G14
S7SE5SE5SE4SE6SE6SE5SE6CalmSE4N9
G14
N12
G16
N8N8
G14
N9
G19
N12
G22
N10
G23
N9
G19
N10
G19
N10
G16
N8
G21
NE11
G19
1 day agoSW7SW7
G17
SW5SW6S4E4SE6SE5CalmSE7SE6SE5SE4SE5SE7SE6SE6SE8SE9SE9S15
G19
SE9
G16
SE10
G15
S9
2 days agoS13
G20
S10
G18
S6S7SW8S5S9
G17
SW7
G14
SW6SW7SW10SW9
G15
SW9
G14
W8
G14
W9
G15
SW9W7W6W7W6
G17
W6W5W7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bon Secour
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:45 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM CST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:41 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM CST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.41.10.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.40.60.811.21.41.61.71.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:43 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM CST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM CST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.60.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.30.50.70.80.91110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.