Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Beach, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:17PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 1:40 PM CDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 1:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ633 Perdido Bay- 950 Am Cdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy fog late in the morning. Slight chance of showers late in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 950 Am Cdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis..A light to moderate southeasterly flow later today becomes northeasterly tonight into Wednesday as a weak cold front moves southward over the north central gulf. A moderate to strong northeasterly flow is expected Wednesday night into Thursday then gradually diminishes through Friday as cooler air in the wake of the front continues to move southward over the northern gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Beach, AL
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location: 30.22, -87.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 161752 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1252 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
18z issuance... Expect mostly MVFR conditions through 17.12z.

Could see short periods of ifr CIGS and visibilities in heavy
rain associated with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening along with
low stratus and patchy dense fog along a weak frontal boundary
moving towards the coast then offshore late tonight and early wed
morning. Winds will be southeast at 8 to 12 knots this afternoon
and early this evening becoming 5 knots or less later this evening
then northeast at 6 to 10 knots late tonight through 17.12z.

32 ee

Prev discussion issued 919 am cdt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion... See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update... The dense fog advisory has expired for areas in
southwest alabama and northwest florida. Patchy fog is still
expected through mid morning gradually lifting through late
morning as daytimes temperatures continue to rise. 32 ee
marine... The dense fog advisory for the coastal waters of alabama
and northwest florida has been allowed to expire. Patchy fog will
continue through late morning then erode by midday. 32 ee
prev discussion... Issued 521 am cdt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update... The dense fog has become more widespread, and have updated
to add the following counties to the dense fog advisory: wilcox,
monroe, conecuh, butler, and crenshaw. No other major changes. 29
aviation...

12z issuance... Areas of dense fog generally located along and east
of i-65 will dissipate by mid morning. Vlifr to ifr ceilings over
the area will improve to MVFR by mid to late morning, followed by
vfr conditions by early afternoon. Isolated to scattered
convection is expected mainly through the early evening hours.

MVFR ceilings will return late tonight, possibly lowering to
ifr lifr in some locations. 29
prev discussion... Issued 437 am cdt Tue oct 16 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... An upper ridge extending
from the western atlantic and across the northern gulf remains in
place during the period while an upper trof amplifies over the
interior eastern states. A weak cold front currently located just
east of the i-65 corridor will continue slowly eastward to near the
coast at the beginning of the period, and remains near this position
through the day before finally moving into the marine area by early
evening. This frontal boundary is shallow, with a light southerly
flow just aloft, which has resulted in low stratus developing along
and west of the front while areas of dense fog has developed east of
the front. Have issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am this
morning for the western florida panhandle, coastal alabama, and a
portion of south central alabama. Expect the fog to dissipate by
mid morning, while otherwise mostly cloudy skies prevail through the
day. Will have chance pops for most of the area mainly during the
afternoon and early evening due to a series of weak shortwaves
moving across the area along with modest isentropic lift. Daytime
highs will be well above seasonable values along and east of i-65,
with mid to upper 80s in this portion. The record highs at mobile
and pensacola are 93 and 88, respectively, and the forecast highs
for mobile and pensacola are 85 and 86, respectively, so pensacola
will be close to a record. More seasonable values follow today over
interior southeast mississippi and interior southwest alabama where
mid 70s to around 80 is expected. Lows tonight will be mild and
range from near 70 at the coast to the lower mid 60s well inland.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents through tonight. 29
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... Will start the
short term with a trof axis at high levels swinging eastward over
the northeast us while a flat mid level ridge holds in place from
the southwest atlantic, westward into the gulf Wednesday.

Meanwhile, surface front is forecast to increase its distance from
the coast by pushing just south of the coastal waters forecast area
of responsibility Wednesday. A small chance of post frontal
showers is indicated Wednesday morning, then chances of showers
lower to 10% or less for the remainder of the short term period.

Despite the front being south of the area, higher based moisture
rounding the western and northern portion of the gulf mid level
ridge suggests the potential of lingering cloud cover => mid to
upper level stratus will likely continue to stream eastward over
the deep south. How high temperatures get Wednesday and Thursday
will depend on thickness of clouds. 10
long term Friday through Monday ... Amplification in the upper
level ridge evolves over the southeast Friday as upper trof entering
the northern and central plains sharpens. The ridge breaks down
Saturday as upper trof makes quick eastward progression across the
mississippi river valley. Associated strong surface cold front
dives southeast and makes passage Saturday. Environmental moisture
begins to recover thru the day Friday as low level flow becomes
more southerly, then pools in a narrow northeast to southwest
zone from the mid-atlantic to the western gulf ahead of the front
Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few storms
over the southwest zones Friday will trend to the upper end
categories of scattered shower coverages on Saturday. A few storms
possible Saturday southeast of i-65. Following the frontal
passage, cooler and drier weather late in the medium range with
highs by Sunday and Monday trending a few degrees below seasonal.

Lows in the upper 40s over the far northern zones Sunday am, could
spread as far south as the northern border of the coastal zones
by Monday morning. 10
marine... A light to moderate southeasterly flow today becomes
northeasterly tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak cold
front moves southward through the marine area. Have issued a marine
dense fog advisory for the bay waters until 9 am due to areas of
dense fog which will dissipate by mid morning. The offshore flow
becomes moderate to strong Wednesday night then becomes easterly
Thursday into Friday and subsides. A small craft advisory may
become necessary Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 29

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 4 mi40 min 85°F 1018.3 hPa (-1.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 11 mi30 min 5.8 G 7.8 82°F 1018.4 hPa77°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 16 mi70 min SSE 8.9 82°F 1018.6 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 20 mi55 min 88°F 1018 hPa75°F
WBYA1 20 mi40 min 82°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 22 mi40 min S 4.1 G 7 85°F 80°F1018.7 hPa (-1.3)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi40 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 1018.5 hPa (-0.9)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 27 mi40 min SE 9.9 G 11 82°F 1018.4 hPa (-0.9)76°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 28 mi70 min ESE 8 82°F 1018.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 31 mi70 min ESE 8 82°F 1018.6 hPa
MBPA1 35 mi40 min 83°F 77°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 35 mi70 min SE 9.9 82°F 1019 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 40 mi40 min SSE 6 G 9.9 83°F 81°F1018.6 hPa (-1.2)
PTOA1 40 mi40 min 84°F 76°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 42 mi40 min 83°F 82°F1018.5 hPa (-1.1)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 47 mi55 min SSE 8 83°F 1020 hPa77°F
GBRM6 47 mi100 min 85°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL8 mi65 minSE 610.00 miOvercast85°F75°F74%1018.6 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL16 mi44 minSSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1018.5 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL24 mi65 minS 810.00 miFair84°F73°F70%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE5SE7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8CalmCalmCalmE9CalmSE8SE8SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:46 AM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:02 PM CDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 01:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:24 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.81.9221.91.81.71.51.31.110.80.70.70.60.60.60.60.80.91.11.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:37 AM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:02 PM CDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 01:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:49 PM CDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.31.31.21.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.20.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.