Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pass Christian, MS

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Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:34PM Sunday August 19, 2018 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 348 Am Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 348 Am Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the northern gulf of mexico through Tuesday. A cold front will enter the coastal waters early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pass Christian, MS
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location: 30.22, -89.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 191341
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
841 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Sounding discussion
This morning's sounding continues to have a moist column and
similar high pwat values as the past couple of days. There is a
bit of a dry slot around 500mb. There's quite a few
temperature inversions throughout the column. There is a little
bit of CIN at the surface but that will erode as the day warms up.

Lapse rates at the surface mandatory pressure levels are just shy
of conditionally unstable. Convt is fairly low at 83f and mlcape
is 1911 j kg, so thunderstorms should have an easy time forming
and any storm that forms can be a very efficient rain producer.

Winds at the surface are still mostly westerly at 10-15 knots.

-bl

Prev discussion issued 432 am cdt Sun aug 19 2018
short term...

not a lot of change in the overall thinking. Training echoes will
continue to be the main concern as most if not all thunderstorms
will produce very heavy rainfall. Will continue the flood watch
for the current area as it covers locations that are at the mercy
of pumping stations. Most other locations will also have the
possibility of flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas but
those areas are able to drain more CFS while it is still raining
than those areas that depend on pumps. This scenario will be quite
redundant for the next few days. A cold front, or atleast a dew pt
boundary will move into the area and stall early Tuesday. This
will help become a better focus in lifting the abundant moisture
over the area. The sh TS that result from this look to train along
the frontal interface and ahead of it causing rainfall tallies to
become a potential issue during the day Tuesday. So there is a
possibility that the flood watch could beecome much larger in
areal extent depending on how this scenario trends. A reinforcing
surge of dry and slightly cooler air looks to move through by the
end of the week but that will have to be looked at further as we
get a little closer.

Aviation...

one change from previous mornings is the lifr ceiling noted at kmcb.

These ceilings could continue through about 14z before improving
gradually toVFR. Currently, convection over the coastal waters is
not as extensive as the previous several mornings, but would not be
surprised to see an increase in areal coverage over the next couple
of hours. With no significant change in airmass noted from the past
few days, again anticipate significant areal coverage of convection
today. ExpectVFR conditions to predominate through the forecast
period outside of convective activity. Will tend to use vcts with
only a 4 hour window of tempo in most terminals today, as
instantaneous areal coverage of convection may not exceed 50
percent. If convection is expected to directly impact a terminal,
ifr or lower conditions will be possible, with wind gusts to 30
knots or so. Most convection should run out of steam around 00z-01z,
with a restart of coastal convection Monday morning around 10z. 35
marine...

high pressure will remain centered east of the waters through about
Tuesday, before a frontal system moves into the area. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, a prevailing onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots is
expected across most of the coastal waters ahead of the front. The
only exception will be over the nearshore waters off the mississippi
coast where a seabreeze is expected to develop each day. This could
induce some stronger onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots for a few hours
each afternoon across the mississippi and chandeleur sounds. Once
the frontal system moves into the area, there could be a period of
offshore flow Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a light and
variable wind regime Friday before onshore flow re-establishes. 35
decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring convective flash flooding concerns.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 89 73 89 73 70 20 60 40
btr 90 75 90 76 70 20 60 40
asd 89 77 90 77 70 30 60 40
msy 89 77 90 78 70 40 60 30
gpt 88 77 89 78 70 40 60 30
pql 88 77 90 77 70 30 60 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through Monday evening for laz058-060>064.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 14 mi41 min WSW 4.1 G 8 82°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 31 mi47 min 83°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 32 mi41 min WSW 11 G 13 82°F 1017 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 38 mi86 min WSW 2.9 80°F 1017 hPa75°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 38 mi41 min SW 8 G 8.9 82°F 88°F1016.2 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 48 mi71 min W 9.9 80°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Gulfport Outer Range, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gulfport - Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, MS13 mi18 minSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds83°F77°F82%1015.5 hPa
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS18 mi75 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F77°F90%1016.2 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS21 mi78 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from GPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S9W6S6S7S8
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SW7W6NW4NE5NE5SE5CalmS6S35SW4W3SW5CalmCalmW3SW5
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2 days agoNE3SE7SE8SE9S64S9S6S8S8S5S5S5S4S8S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmE9S7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cat Island, Mississippi
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Cat Island
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Sun -- 12:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM CDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:26 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.41.51.61.71.71.61.61.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.20.20.20.20.30.50.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Ship Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:33 AM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:48 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.51.61.71.81.81.71.61.51.310.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.