Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 12:50 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1006 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1006 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
weak northerly winds today will become southerly once again by Thursday night and gradually increase into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues Thursday night through Saturday morning mainly for the inland and nearshore waters and headlines for hazardous seas could be raised during this period.

FXUS64 KLIX 151700 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1200 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A cold front is currently slowly moving south through the area this morning. It is very easy to see within the obs network. Four ship obs are showing this boundary very well at 06Z. Two of these are in and near the Sabine near SW LA, with one ship in Lake Sabine(ID: WDF7311) with T/Td of 71/62, the ship to the south of this location about 15NM south of Sabine Pass(ID: WHED) has 77/72. The next two ships near Pascagoula(ID: WTED) has 74/61 while the ship in the Mississippi Sound a few miles south of WTED's location is showing 84/73. Between Sabine Pass and Pascagoula, the boundary snakes through SELA and was located between Gonzales and MSY with 67/65 and 74/73 respectively. This boundary will be very important for this fcast. It will slowly move offshore today and stall. The next upper level troughing will begin to draw this boundary back to the north, but it will be reluctant to move far inland. This sfc boundary will give a pathway to help a few disturbances move along it. The first of these will move along this boundary Thu morning which will be the first clue of this boundary moving back to the north. Then the short wave that ejects from the base of the upper trough will help create lift and this boundary will help connect that vertical lift to the sfc. Deep moisture will be available on the south side of this boundary with PW values swinging from <1" to its north to >2" to its south. Broad divergent flow aloft will help keep lift over this trough axis continuing to produce precip starting Thu evening. The main sfc low and upper trough will not eject very fast and these dynamic features will continue to play out Thu night and again Fri night as waves propagate along the interface of this boundary. This will all come together for another potential flooding event across the area and WPC has set a small portion of the area in a moderate risk of flooding rainfall during these time frames.

At the moment, severe storm numbers are not through the roof for the Thu event. There is a window for a few strong/severe storms overnight Thu but Fri, they are quite high. The only model that shows this is the GFS, but the NAM is also beginning to pick up on this as well. This looks to be the main short wave that ejects from the base of the long wave upper trough with strong divergent flow aloft. This time period would be Fri late afternoon/evening or overnight Fri. We will need to see how this is handled over the next 48 hours to resolve any higher resolution for where and what time frame this occurs. The general things we have most confidence in is most likely Fri late afternoon/evening with another fast moving MCS feature causing heavy rainfall and severe storms with all modes and a general placement of the northern two thirds of the area. But one could bet, some if not all of these parameters will change or at least be refined. SPC has a slight risk for the general area where this should occur.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Even though the boundary gets left in place across the area Saturday, the sfc low and upper troughing move east bringing the mid and upper support with it. This will help alleviate the heavy rain and severe storm threat for most of the weekend. High pressure builds and moves east by the new week but ridges over the gulf coast through about mid week. A new cold front will move to around the Ark/La line before stalling with our area possibly staying rain free for the most part most of the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions areawide through the forecast period. Have noted potential for MVFR/IFR VIS impacts due to shallow fog development with light winds and high pressure overhead trapping moisture near the surface. Similar regime to what we saw this morning.
Otherwise, winds remain light and generally northwesterly before switching to southeasterly Thursday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Winds will slowly shift from SW to NW today as a weak cold front stalls over the northern gulf. A sfc high will rapidly move in and east of the area today causing this stalled boundary to begin moving back to the north Thu which will cause return flow once again and a rise in wind speed through the end of the week. Another few strong disturbances could impact mainly the near shore and inland waters Thu and Fri with high pressure building back over the area over the weekend into the new week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 62 85 66 83 / 0 10 70 80 BTR 66 89 72 89 / 0 20 60 60 ASD 66 88 71 89 / 0 10 40 60 MSY 71 87 75 89 / 0 20 40 50 GPT 66 87 72 86 / 0 10 40 60 PQL 64 89 70 88 / 0 0 30 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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