Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Eden Isle, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday August 17, 2017 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:07AMMoonset 4:12PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..West winds near 5 knots becoming south late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1028 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will continue to dominate the gulf of mexico through the week and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eden Isle, LA
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location: 30.22, -89.82     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 170451
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1151 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017

Aviation
Mostly prevailingVFR with only isolated afternoon shra tsra is
expected for the TAF airports through Thursday. The exception is
kmcb where some low stratus has already produced lifr conditions,
and this will likely continue through about 13-14z. Some lower
cigs in MVFR category (025-030) may develop at times in the
morning at a few airports before scattering out and lifting to
035-050 in the late morning and afternoon. 22 td

Prev discussion issued 341 pm cdt Wed aug 16 2017
discussion... Seabreeze quickly pushed north and activated
along the i-10 corridor leaving the southern half of the CWA rain
free so far but still expecting isolated development later this
afternoon.

Tomorrow we will move under a mid level ridge. This combined with
high pressure at the sfc, increased suppression, and a cap will make
convection much harder to come by tomorrow. However it will also
allow the region to heat up more than we have seen a little while.

H85 temps of 19-20 c suggest highs could touch the mid 90s however
not anticipating many if any sites getting abv 95. Even though it is
high pressure pushing in it is still a maritime airmass and is not
accompanied with the extreme heat we can see from airmasses that
move in from the west. Dewpoints will be in the mid 70s and this
could lead to heat index values around 108-110 degrees in
scattered locations. With that we will hoist a heat adv for all of
the area. Now even though convection is not as likely tomorrow we
will still see isolated convection but it will likely hold off
until late in the afternoon, probably close to 21z when we can
finally break the cap. This will also mean there will be quite a
bit of instability to work with and thus whatever can develop
could become strong and can not rule out a rogue severe storm or
two.

Things quickly change Friday and into the weekend. First our ridge
will continue to slide west with the eastern fringes breaking down
as a trough swings through the central CONUS and mid upper ms
valley. This should allow a few more storms to develop but this
activity will likely be more centered over the northern half of the
cwa especially southwestern ms.

The ridge will continue to break down over the area as the trough
continues to slide east into the oh tn valleys and approaches the
appalachians early Saturday. At the same time an upper level
disturbance in the easterlies will work across cuba and into the gulf
by Saturday. This disturbance will slowly close off and drift to the
northwest into the central gulf by Sunday. The trough on Saturday
will help bring scattered convection area wide but rain looks more
likely on Sunday and could even see locally heavy rain.

The upper low in the gulf will continue to plague the north-central
gulf to start the work week with more of the same, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Of course this could be an
unwelcome thing Monday as this is the day of the solar eclipse.

Cloud cover looks like it will be greater across the southern half
of the area and there could be a pretty good shield of cirrus
pushing in from the southeast. Fingers crossed the clouds stay out
of the area. Please remember this is still 5 days out so things
could change such as if the upper low stays further south like
advertised by the gfs.

Thanks to wfo's jackson and lake charles for coordinating the
heat advisory.

Aviation... Outside of convection all terminals are inVFR status.

Convection should quickly come to an end this evening with high
pressure building in. Not anticipating any issues with few to sct
cigs early in the morning around 4k ft. There will also be sct to
bkn skies around 15-20k.

Marine... Nothing really to change from previous forecasters
thinking. Like they said it is august and high pressure will remain
in place with diurnal fluctuations being the main driver of winds.

With most nights look for a weak enhanced jet over the waters east
of the ms delta where winds could bump up to 10-15 knots at times.

Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range or less.

Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: nohsep.

Activation: none.

Activities: dss support for nohsep; monitoring convective trends
river flooding; and heat advisory.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 73 92 75 90 20 20 10 50
btr 75 93 76 91 10 30 10 40
asd 76 93 77 92 10 20 10 30
msy 77 94 78 92 10 20 10 20
gpt 77 90 77 89 10 20 20 50
pql 75 92 76 91 10 20 20 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Heat advisory from 9 am to 7 pm cdt Thursday for laz034>037-039-
040-046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Heat advisory from 9 am to 7 pm cdt Thursday for msz068>071-077-
080>082.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 20 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 86°F1017.8 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 26 mi45 min 84°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi45 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 82°F 89°F1017.9 hPa (-0.3)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 27 mi45 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 80°F 86°F1017.6 hPa (-0.7)
FREL1 33 mi45 min S 4.1 G 5.1 81°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.0)77°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 80°F 87°F1018 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA9 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1017.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA17 mi52 minSE 510.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1017.3 hPa
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS22 mi4.9 hrsN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S6SW5S6SW6S5CalmSW7NW9
G15
NW5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS45SW7S46SW10
G17
S5SE63SW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW65W5SW5S7S6S86CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:03 AM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10-0-0-000.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.60.70.70.70.60.60.50.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:27 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.11.21.31.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.