Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Charles, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:14PM Monday December 10, 2018 6:32 PM CST (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 355 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday night..West winds around 5 knots becoming north up to 5 knots after midnight. Lake waters smooth.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 355 Pm Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis.. Light to moderate offshore flow can be expected through the early part of the week. Another strong low pressure system will move north of the region Thursday bringing increasing chances of precipitation and strong westerly winds by late Thursday behind the exiting low pressure system.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Charles, LA
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location: 30.23, -93.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 102343
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
543 pm cst Mon dec 10 2018

Discussion
For the 12 11 18 0000 utc TAF package.

Aviation
Vfr will prevail through the period.

13

Prev discussion issued issued by national weather service new orleans la
update...

no major changes to the forecast this afternoon. The only
adjustments that were made was to increase the pops for Thursday
to 80 percent or better over the entire cwa. Otherwise see
previous forecast discussion below.

Prev discussion... Issued 342 am cst Mon dec 10 2018
discussion...

short term... Today and Tuesday...

a broad 1028 hpa high pressure area will build southeastward into
the lower mississippi river valley today and be centered over the
cwa on Tuesday. This will result in dry conditions and clear
skies today and Tuesday. 850 hpa temperatures of -1 to -2 sigma
will contribute to below normal temperatures despite abundant
sunshine both today and tomorrow. The combination of clear skies
and near calm winds tonight will be favorable for radiational
cooling and freezing temperatures for areas along and north of
interstate 10. The entire area has already seen a freeze this
season and northeast portions of the CWA look to bottom out
several degrees above 25 so no hard freeze products appear to be
needed at this time.

Long term... Wednesday through Sunday…
by Wednesday, the surface high pressure will shift to the east of
the CWA and allow for return flow to develop ahead of a shortwave
trough digging into the southern plains. There is some
uncertainty regarding the amplitude and timing of this shortwave
trough based on ensemble and deterministic model guidance.

However, the shortwave trough is expected to support cyclogenesis
and the development of a surface low in the southern plains
Wednesday into Thursday. The surface cold front associated with
this low is expected to approach the CWA late Wednesday and move
across the region during the day on Thursday. The return flow
ahead of the surface cyclone should result in enough gulf moisture
being advected into the region to support at least some surface
based instability to support thunderstorms. Model guidance
currently is indicating the potential for 500-1000 j kg sbcape,
which in conjunction with 30+ knots of 0-6 km shear could support
some organized convection. However, based on the uncertainty in
the development of the shortwave trough, surface cyclone, and
surface based instability, it is too early to highlight any
hazards other than lightning with thunderstorms that do develop.

The surface cyclone is expected to be fairly progressive and the
majority of the precipitation should end across the region by
Thursday evening. However, similar to the system that move through
the area this past Saturday, some light drizzle wrapping around
the back edge of the low could linger across the region on Friday.

Beyond Friday, the upper level height field over the CONUS will
consist of a very broad trough with embedded shortwaves
progressing through it. Model guidance is depicting a wide variety
of solutions for the timing and amplitude of the individual
shortwaves. Therefore, the forecast for the end of the long term
period remains relatively close to superblend output with low
precipitation chances and near normal temperatures.

Marine...

high pressure will build over the region today and be centered
north of the region on Tuesday which will allow for offshore winds
to decrease. Onshore flow will develop on Wednesday as the high
pressure shifts eastward. A storm system will move across the
lower mississippi valley late Wednesday into Thursday and this
will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal waters. Strong offshore flow will develop behind this
system and small craft advisories will likely be needed for
Thursday into Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 26 57 35 64 0 0 0 0
lch 33 58 43 68 0 0 0 0
lft 31 56 39 67 0 0 0 0
bpt 35 58 46 68 0 0 0 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 0 mi33 min 52°F 57°F1027.4 hPa (+1.3)
BKTL1 5 mi39 min 57°F
KCVW 31 mi23 min NW 2.9 50°F 37°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 33 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 7 51°F 55°F1026.6 hPa (+1.3)
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 45 mi33 min NNW 5.1 G 8 53°F 55°F1028.4 hPa (+1.5)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 49 mi39 min WNW 4.1 G 6 53°F 60°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chenault Airpark, LA4 mi43 minN 410.00 miClear50°F33°F54%1027.8 hPa
Lake Charles Regional Airport, LA8 mi40 minNW 510.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1028.4 hPa
Southland Field, LA11 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair49°F36°F62%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from CWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N8N6N7NW5NW8NW5NW5NW7NW6NW5NW7N5NW3N6NW3NE4N6NW5N9NW12N8NW8N4
1 day ago------NW12NW8
G12
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G16
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G19
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2 days ago------E13
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E16E13
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N8E6E8SE5
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NW13N12NW9
G16
N9N13N7
G15
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NW12

Tide / Current Tables for Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana
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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM CST     1.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM CST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM CST     2.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.51.51.41.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.3-0.200.40.81.31.71.9221.91.71.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2)
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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:15 AM CST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:10 PM CST     1.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.61.51.41.10.70.3-0-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.71.11.51.81.91.81.81.71.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.