Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 11:46 PM   Moonset 8:42 AM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 347 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - ..small craft exercise caution in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon - .
Today - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters very rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Lake waters very rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. Patchy fog in the morning. Thunderstorms likely. Showers, mainly in the morning. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 347 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis - The tight pressure gradient between high pressure and low pressure in the central us is starting to relax due to high moving eastward. While winds today will maintain their strong south- southeast fetch, generally expect winds to be lower than yesterday with further decreases by Monday morning. Waves will be slower to yield and will remain 5 to 7 feet in at least 20 to 60 nm waters through Monday afternoon. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 281216 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 716 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Well, get ready because this forecast package includes a lot of updates with quite a big upgrade in wording and expectation for the next 24 to 36 hours.

To start with hazards... The Wind Advisory was cut back down to the HWY 190 corridor for much of today. High pressure has moved further east allowing for the pressure gradient to relax in comparison to yesterday. Strong south-southeast winds with gusts up to 40 MPH along the coastline are still likely, but further inland, expect breezy conditions below Advisory criteria (sustained 20 to 34 MPH).
Due to the continuation of long fetch over the Gulf, waters will continue piling up along the coastline. As we move towards high tide, expect water levels 2 or so feet above tide predictions which would result in coastal flooding. Areas most concerning are Jefferson and south Orange counties, and Cameron and south Calcasieu parishes which are under a Coastal Flood Warning. All other coastal zones are in a Coastal Flood Advisory for waters 1.5 to 2.0 feet above tide predictions.

The mention of an upgrade in wording for this forecast package comes due to a sudden upgrade to Slight Risk for severe weather for all Texas counties and Louisiana parishes west of I-49; Marginal Risk of severe weather east of I-49. A series of low pressure areas are moving across the central US underneath mid level shortwave trof. This trof axis swings towards east Texas late today before another shortwave pulse develops and moves overtop Louisiana on Monday. There is already a long area of thunderstorms which developed from the main shortwave that now stretches from the Upper Midwest southwestward into southwest Texas. The expectation is for storms to repeatedly die off and redevelop along this line as it moves east underneath the primary shortwave trof today. At this time, we are now expecting a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to arrive into southeast Texas sometime late this evening into early Monday morning. Short term guidance is struggling to sort out exactly what time this feature will move through our region with earliest arrival being about 10 PM tonight and latest arrival a few hours after midnight.

Severe concerns with this line are for some tornadoes and strong to severe thunderstorms; some hail up to 1 inch. Other concern is for very efficient rainfall associated with the line that may result in areas of flash flooding. It is hard to say where the line of greatest rainfall will set up, but with the rain we've had recently, it's not going to take much to cause flooding in urban centers nor for creeks to come out of their beds. QPF forecasts and rainfall total probabilities have only increased and now place 3 to 5 inches with some higher amounts across much of southeast Texas and central/southwest Louisiana from late Sunday into Tuesday morning. The bulk of rainfall is expected from after midnight tonight through Monday evening.

As of now, we urge folks to prepare for severe weather and flash flooding as we start this next work week.

The secondary trof moves overhead Monday afternoon which should assist with moving the bulk of showers and thunderstorms out of the area by evening. However, the boundary these storms are tied to won't clear down into the GoM under weakening flow aloft.
Expect the boundary to move back onshore on Tuesday with another round of showers and storms (lighter rain and lower severe risk)
Tuesday afternoon.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Weak SFC and mid level ridging exists to the east giving way to more of a trof across the region by mid week. Meanwhile the southern stream jet, while not strong, remains across the Gulf Coast through this period. Guidance continues to show multiple disturbances traversing the flow from mid to late week, with an eventual cold front approaching by late week into the weekend. It appears this frontal bndry will become stationary meandering through the weekend.

Given the ample moisture and instability, daily showers and thunderstorms look like an increasing likelihood. Severe weather is not out of the question given the presence of the disturbances and jet support, but confidence is on the low side. An active and unsettled period of weather with increased chances for above average rainfall has much higher confidence.

Daytime highs remain a nearly copy and paste forecast through the entire extended. Highs each afternoon will be in the middle to upper 80s, warmest into the weekend ahead of the frontal bndry.

78

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Currently MVFR ceilings and southeast winds are ongoing across the region. Southeast winds will increase throughout the morning once again with coastal terminals expecting to see 15 to 25 knots sustained with gusts 30 to 35 knots during the day today. Winds will diminish slightly after 00Z with the loss of daytime heating, but will remain breezy with gusts 20 to 25 knots through 12Z tomorrow.

Expect ceilings to hover between low VFR and high MVFR for much of the TAF period. CIGs will drop after 00Z ahead of an approaching line of storms and showers. There is low to medium confidence on timing of showers and storms to terminals. A mix of timing solutions was taken into account with TAF timing; VCTS arriving first to BPT this afternoon with prefrontal storms, then LCH and ARA around 06Z and finally to LFT and ARA at about 08Z. Continue to monitor TAF issuances today with storm timing updates.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure and low pressure in the central US is starting to relax due to high moving eastward. While winds today will maintain their strong south- southeast fetch, generally expect winds to be lower than yesterday with further decreases by Monday morning. Waves will be slower to yield and will remain 5 to 7 feet in at least 20 to 60 nm waters through Monday afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night through Tuesday morning as a deep layer mid to upper level trough approaches the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 86 65 78 64 / 20 60 100 20 LCH 84 69 80 70 / 20 60 90 20 LFT 87 73 82 70 / 10 30 90 40 BPT 83 71 83 70 / 30 70 80 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033.

Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for LAZ027- 028-030>032-141.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ044-045-055-073- 074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ073- 074-241.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

Flood Watch from this evening through Monday evening for TXZ180- 201-259>262-516.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616.

Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ615- 616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.

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