Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Charles, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday March 23, 2017 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:11AMMoonset 2:13PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 341 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 1 am cdt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 341 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will increase on tonight into Friday in advance of an approaching low pressure system. This area of low pressure is expected to produce showers and Thunderstorms that will move through the coastal waters Friday evening through Saturday. Winds will decrease on Saturday as the low moves away from the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Charles, LA
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location: 30.23, -93.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 231543
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1043 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Update
Weak backdoor cool front pushing in from the east and across the
atchafalaya basin and into the lafayette area. This should be
about the further west movement of the front. The front is also
falling apart and should loose most of it's identity by this
afternoon. Current zones are looking fine for today and no plans
for any updates attm.

Prev discussion /issued 645 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

23/12z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

lifr/vlifr vsbys prevail at southern terminals this morning with
ifr CIGS at kaex. These conditions will persist for another hour
or so gradually improving by 15-16z.VFR is expected to prevail
through the remainder of the day with southerly winds 8-12 kt.

Winds are expected to remain elevated into this evening and
overnight as low pres deepens west of the region. Because of this,
expect more of a low stratus layer developing late this evening
rather than dense fog, with MVFR CIGS after 03-04z tonight,
possibly lowering toward daybreak Friday.

24
prev discussion... /issued 504 am cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
synopsis...

the weather map this early morning shows a quasi-stationary front
from the ARKLATEX to the gulf south coast, and is barely into the
northeast corner of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a weak surface
ridge is noted over the north central gulf of mexico. Between the
front and the surface high, a light southerly flow has brought in
a shallow moist layer near the surface. With stable conditions
aloft, low stratus and fog has again formed for much of the
forecast area. Fog has been dense in patchy locations. However,
see enough visibility restrictions of around 1/4 of a mile to keep
the dense fog going for all but rapides and avoyelles parishes
until 9 am local.

Looking at the bigger picture. Water vapor imagery and upper air
analysis shows pacific energy moving out of southern california
into the desert southwest.

Rua
discussion...

areas of low clouds and fog will again mix out by mid morning once
daytime heating takes affect and surface winds increase. That will
leave again mainly sunny, warm and humid conditions as upper level
ridging building ahead of the west coast system moves across.

Mainly persistent pattern will begin to transition tonight. Pacific
upper level energy will move across the rockies, this will form a
surface and upper level low on the lee-side of the rockies. The
result will be height falls beginning over the forecast area with
ridging moving off to the east. The increase in pressure gradient
will increase southerly winds in the boundary layer that will
dissipate old frontal boundary as it lifts to the north.

The first affect of this change will be the lowering of fog
potential for tonight into Friday morning. Boundary layer wind
speeds expect to be 10 to 15 knots in the evening hours,
increasing to around 20 knots during the overnight. These
conditions should allow decent mixing to take place that any
shallow ground fog that may be trying to form during the evening
hours will dissipate overnight.

The southerly breezes will continue during Friday as the low moves
eastward into the southern plains. Sustained wind speeds could
reach over 20 mph by Friday afternoon for portions of the forecast
area, and a wind advisory will be needed if this occurs. The
increase in southerly winds will also increase moisture depth and
lift for a few showers to begin to form by afternoon, especially
over southeast texas.

As cyclone moves eastward across the southern plains on Friday
night, southerly flow will continue to increase, and thus, so will
moisture profiles and lift. Therefore, still looks like a very
good chance for the forecast area to see showers and thunderstorms
during the Friday night period into early Saturday.

Moisture plume is progged ahead of the surface dryline/trough and
dry slot aloft, with precipitable water values above 1.5 inches
and mean relative humidity values up to 50h over 80 percent. Right
entrance region of 50-70 knot mid level speed MAX rotating around
the low, will help in lifting moisture and merging into a likely
squall line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the dryline.

Still some timing differences in the guidance, with GFS about 3
hours faster than nam12 and 6 hours faster than ecmwf. Therefore,
have opted to just broad brush the pops on Friday night for the
12 hour period instead of trying to break it up.

Still looks like the best time will be during the overnight hours.

With timing, CAPE values will be on the low side, with most
unstable CAPE in the mixing layer between 500-1000 j/kg. Wind
dynamics are decent with low level jet between 35-40 knots and the
aforementioned mid level speed max. This produces 0-6 km shear
numbers between 45-55 knots. 3-6 km lapse rates are also decent
with values between 6.5-7 c/km. So as is typical, looks like a
highly sheared/low CAPE environment. Best parameters look to be
north of the forecast area. However, with respectable wind
dynamics, squall line will have a probability of producing strong
straightline wind gusts. Also, if storms can tap into some higher
instability, then some rotating storms with isolated tornadoes or
large hail could also happen along the line, or if any cells can
become discrete ahead of the line. High moisture content will
also allow for high rainfall rates, however, progressive nature of
the line should preclude any excessive rainfall amounts.

Therefore, looks like there is a potential for strong to severe
storms along the line during the Friday night into early Saturday
morning period. The storm prediction center has most of the
forecast area outlined in a slight risk for the day 2 period
(mainly Friday night) and the far eastern zones in a slight risk
for the day 3 period (mainly early Saturday morning.) the main
hazard will be damaging straightline winds. Isolated tornadoes,
isolated large hail, and torrential downpours will also have a
probability.

Dry slot looks to move in on the first part of Saturday, and that
should lower chances for showers and thunderstorms as that occurs.

Therefore, the best chance for rain on Saturday will be in the
early part of the day.

Remainder of the weekend should be warm with limited chance for
rain as more stable conditions move in behind the departing low.

Just somewhat lower dew points behind the surface boundary, so not
a whole lot of change in temperatures.

A progressive pattern looks to be in store next week. The next
southern stream system to move across the southern plains on
Monday. Some shower activity will be possible by late Sunday
night, with better chance during the daytime Monday. Dynamics with
this system at this time do not looks as good as the Friday
night/Saturday morning time period. Another system, possibly
pretty robust, to affect the region by mid week.

Rua
marine...

a low pressure system will develop later today east of the
rockies. This system will move east across the southern plains on
Friday night. Ahead of this system, gradient will increase over
the coastal waters, and thus, southerly winds will increase, along
with building seas. Looks like small craft exercise caution to
small craft advisory conditions will be possible during the
overnight tonight through Friday night.

Winds will decrease on Saturday, as the low moves off to the
northeast.

Rua

Preliminary point temps/pops
Aex 86 65 79 64 / 0 10 20 80
lch 82 65 80 67 / 0 10 20 70
lft 85 68 80 68 / 0 10 20 70
bpt 84 67 80 67 / 0 10 30 70

Lch watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Public... 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 0 mi51 min 83°F 74°F1020.2 hPa
BKTL1 5 mi57 min 73°F
KCVW 31 mi24 min S 8.9 73°F 66°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 33 mi51 min S 9.9 G 12 72°F 72°F
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 45 mi51 min S 9.9 G 15 72°F1020.1 hPa
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 49 mi51 min SE 13 G 14 73°F 74°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chenault Airpark, LA4 mi79 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds82°F55°F40%1020 hPa
Lake Charles, Lake Charles Regional Airport, LA8 mi76 minS 710.00 miFair82°F51°F34%1020.5 hPa
Southland Field, LA11 mi74 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair83°F50°F32%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9S5----S6--SW4SW3CalmE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E7SE5SE6SE4S6S11
G15
1 day agoSW11
G16
S8S7S7S6--SW3S3S4CalmE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalm--S3S3S7
2 days agoSW12S5S8S7S6--S4SE5SE5S5E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4--SW6S6SW6
G14
SW8SW13
G17
SW10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Lake Charles, Calcasieu River, Louisiana
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Lake Charles
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Thu -- 12:40 AM CDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 AM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:24 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.50.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.70.911.11.110.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Orange (Old Navy Base)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:58 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:12 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:45 AM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM CDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10-00.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.70.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.