Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Charles, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:17PM Monday December 18, 2017 2:56 AM CST (08:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:12AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 950 Pm Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Monday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds up to 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Lake waters smooth. Areas of dense fog through the night. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Showers likely through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Lake waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..South winds up to 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Lake waters a light chop. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 950 Pm Cst Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis.. A warm frontal boundary will continue moving slowly northward tonight across southeast texas through southern louisiana before becoming stationary once again Monday. South winds will prevail to the south of the boundary with an east to northeast flow to the north of it. Marine fog will steadily increase as moisture rich air is transported atop relatively cooler shelf waters. The probability of marine fog will continue for all of the coastal waters on Monday, and remain elevated until a frontal passage late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Increasing lift will aid in generating scattered showers and Thunderstorms after midnight along and to the north of the front, with this activity becoming more numerous as it moves inland in tandem with the boundary on Monday. This front will also be accompanied by scattered showers and Thunderstorms, but will usher a brief shot of drier air into the coastal waters, before moisture and rain chances increase again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Charles, LA
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location: 30.23, -93.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 180523
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1123 pm cst Sun dec 17 2017

Aviation Lifr conditions will prevail for most of tonight into
Monday morning. Showers and some thunderstorms can also be
expected. Ceilings and vis may improve into mid to late morning,
however widespread rain and thunderstorms will keep ifr conditions
possible through the day. Winds will be generally light and from
the northeast to southeast.

Prev discussion issued 1000 pm cst Sun dec 17 2017
discussion...

a warm frontal boundary will continue moving slowly northward
tonight across southeast texas through southern louisiana before
becoming stationary once again Monday. Main issues overnight will
be the lowering ceilings to near ground level causing areas of
dense fog, and marine fog advection across the coastal waters
inland south of the front. Sporadic observations already
reporting dense fog near 1 4sm in central and southern louisiana,
but not everywhere at the present time. The areas of fog will
likely expand overnight per continuing trends and guidance. For
this, issued dense fog advisory for all of SE tx c and sc la
through 9 am, and the coastal waters out 20nm through 9 am.

The other issue is increasing convection across the coastal waters
will gradually increase overnight and spread northward, and will
likely improve visibility somewhat in the heavier storms expected
by daybreak through the day Monday. The precipitation chances
remain mostly unchanged.

Dml
marine...

marine fog will steadily increase as moisture rich air is
transported atop relatively cooler shelf waters. For this, a dense
fog advisory is issued for the inland lakes bays and coastal
waters out 20 nautical miles. The probability of marine fog will
continue for all of the coastal waters on Monday, and remain
elevated until a frontal passage late Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Dml
prev discussion... Issued 512 pm cst Sun dec 17 2017
aviation... Ceilings will lower through the evening across the
i-10 corridor terminals. Kaex is north of the warm front currently
with lifr conditions and this will continue. Rain and fog can be
expected to keep inclement conditions lingering into Monday
morning.

Prev discussion... Issued 451 pm cst Sun dec 17 2017
discussion...

upper air analysis water vapor satellite imagery showed the
shortwave trof that aided the convection overnight and this
morning continuing to race eastward and shear apart N of the ohio
river. To the southeast, a deep layer ridge is centered over S fl
and the bahamas. Out west, base of upper trof that dug into the
wrn CONUS yesterday has cut off over NW mexico. NW gulf coast
region resides within deep SW flow between this cut off low to the
west and the upper ridge to the se.

At the sfc, a weak frontal boundary that pushed w-e through the
coastal waters and south central la overnight has become rather
diffuse and difficult to locate inland, but appears based on sfc
obs and satellite imagery to extend from roughly sc SE la
southwest into the west central gulf. Abundant mstr and persistent
lift on the "cool" side of this boundary resulted in shower
activity continuing across south central la and the adjacent
coastal waters through the morning and into early afternoon, with
the lift finally easing shifting east by mid to late afternoon.

Small rain chances continue in the forecast this evening over the
se half or so of the area, with probabilities increasing markedly
after midnight as strengthening isentropic ascent develops atop a
sharpening warm front expected to settle near a line from morgan
city to 60 nm south of high island. Guidance is hitting pretty
hard on marine advection type fog over the coastal waters east of
sabine lake with subsequent spreading inland across sc SW la. More
uncertainty exists to the NW where developing and lowering cigs
and or cooling of the moist boundary layer could also yield fog
formation. Have confined fog mention in the forecast to the
former, but will ALERT evening crew to the possibility of the
latter.

Wmfnt is progged to remain near the coast Monday morning, with
inland convection becoming more widespread. Boundary and
associated convection will lift N thru the afternoon, with the
bulk of the rainfall pulling north of the area by tomorrow
evening. A warm and moist marine airmass will be left in place,
resulting in a narrowing diurnal temperature range along with a
continuing risk of marine fog. Highs tomorrow are expected to
climb into the mid upper 60s with lows tomorrow night tues morning
only fall to the lower mid 60s.

Rain chances start to increase again on Tue as the upper low out
west opens up and ejects eastward across tx, with a sfc low
progged to develop over E tx by Tue evening and subsequently push
eastward along roughly the i-20 corridor Tue night. A trailing
sfc front trough will swing through the area Tue night into early
wed, with a punch of drier air bringing rains and the risk of sea
fog to an end.

The reprieve looks to be short lived however as south winds return
thu ahead of a robust wrn CONUS trof, which will bring back higher
moisture and warmer temperatures to end the week. Concerning this
trof and its impact over the weekend and beyond, operational
global models have continued to trend away from a significant cold
air intrusion at least prior to christmas day, though there
remains considerable spread (20 to 30 degrees f) in their
respective ensemble guidance. Ensemble means offer the most
reasonable solution at this time until this spread narrows and
confidence increases.

13
marine...

a nearly stationary frontal boundary is expected to retreat slowly
northward tonight and become stationary again near a morgan city
to 60 nm south of high island line by early Monday. South winds
will prevail to the south of the boundary with an east to
northeast flow to the north of it. Increasing lift after midnight
will aid in generating scattered showers and thunderstorms after
midnight along and to the north of the front, with this activity
becoming more numerous as it moves inland in tandem with the
boundary on Monday. The risk of marine fog development will
steadily increase as moisture rich air is transported atop
relatively cooler shelf waters, with the risk tonight highest
mainly east of sabine lake. The probability of marine fog will
increase for all of the coastal waters on Monday, and remain
elevated until a frontal passage late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This front will also be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms, but will usher a brief shot of drier
air into the coastal waters, before moisture and rain chances
increase again on Friday.

13

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 54 64 60 73 30 60 30 40
lch 59 68 63 74 40 70 20 30
lft 61 70 65 75 50 70 20 20
bpt 58 68 63 74 40 70 30 40

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Monday for laz027>033-041>045-
052>055-073-074.

Tx... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Monday for txz180-201-215-216-
259>262.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Monday for gmz430-432-435-450-
452-455.

Aviation... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA 0 mi39 min 63°F 59°F1019.6 hPa
BKTL1 5 mi45 min 61°F
CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA 33 mi39 min E 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 58°F1018.9 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 45 mi39 min Calm G 0 61°F 57°F1020.2 hPa
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 49 mi39 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 60°F 61°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for Calcasieu Pass, LA
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NE14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chenault Airpark, LA4 mi82 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist62°F61°F99%1020.3 hPa
Lake Charles Regional Airport, LA8 mi64 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist63°F63°F100%1020.8 hPa
Southland Field, LA11 mi82 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist63°F63°F100%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from CWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N5--CalmN3N3CalmNW3CalmCalmE6E6E6E3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalm--E4NE3E6E9E6E5E7E9E10
G17
SE6
G16
E6E5E6E9E9
G14
E8
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G16
E15SE17
G24
SW9NW8
G16
2 days agoN7N6--N8NE10
G14
NE10N8--------NE8--Calm4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lake Charles, Calcasieu River, Louisiana
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Lake Charles
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CST     New Moon
Mon -- 02:46 AM CST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:51 PM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:54 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:37 PM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.90.90.90.910.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.70.91.11.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Orange (Old Navy Base)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM CST     New Moon
Mon -- 01:21 AM CST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 AM CST     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:26 PM CST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:56 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:33 PM CST     0.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.50.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.30.40.60.70.70.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.