Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM   Moonset 3:20 PM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 351 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through Sunday morning - .
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Monday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Lake waters very rough. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 351 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - Scattered Thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning. Additional showers and Thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KLCH 041134 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 634 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail, continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short range guidance, wasn't depicted in previous forecasts and was, frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly short lived after sunrise.

Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch and aren't expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or ongoing flooding across the region.

A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what should be the last of the parade of MCS's seen across the area the last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support, there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next weekend.

Jones

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of generally light fog will persist across the region for about another hour before improving with all fog expected to be dissipated by 14Z. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter through the day along with moderate southeasterly winds. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop from mid day through late afternoon before dissipating early this evening. Ceilings will gradually lower through the evening becoming MVFR late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 66 81 66 / 30 20 60 20 LCH 83 70 83 70 / 30 20 50 20 LFT 85 71 85 71 / 30 10 30 20 BPT 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 50 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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