Sunday, January21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:55PM Sunday January 21, 2018 7:52 AM EST (12:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:13AMMoonset 10:10PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 248 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Patchy fog in the morning.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of rain.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 248 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will move east of the area today. Light onshore winds today will veer to the southeast tonight as an inverted trough lifts north across the waters. Winds will veer to the south and increase Monday night ahead of a weakening cold front. The weak cold front will push across the waters on Tuesday. North to northeasterly winds will then prevail Tuesday night and Wednesday and then increase on Thursday as high pressure builds north of the area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Park, FL
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location: 30.24, -81.68     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 210727
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
227 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Near term today and tonight
Still expecting shower activity to increase a bit across northeast
florida as we go through the early morning hours. The showers
this morning will be a result of strong forcing aloft on the front
side of a mid to upper level low. Lack of any low level forcing
along with a much drier air mass below 10,000 feet will keep the
shower activity mostly on the light side. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are expected to quickly move northeast across
portions of northeast florida through roughly the noon hour.

Activity should then push offshore and pave the way for a dry
afternoon with clearing skies and plenty of sunshine.

Temperatures today will be above average at inland locations.

Light onshore flow off the cooler shelf waters will keep the
coastal locations much cooler and near seasonal averages.

An inverted coastal trough will lift north across our adjacent
coastal waters tonight. The associated shower activity is expected
to remain offshore. The NAM indicates that this activity will
graze the coastal counties, but that solution is an outlier and we
have chosen to keep pops at or below 10% along the coast tonight.

Low temperatures tonight will be above normal at all locations.

Southeasterly winds will bring an increase in low level moisture
and a more favorable setup for low stratus fog development across
portions of northeast florida. Have gone with just patchy fog for
now given the fair amount of uncertainty that exists.

Short term Mon through Wed night...

a coastal trough will break down and morph into a lifting warm front
early Monday. Morning fog and low clouds expected inland, with some
coastal showers offshore. Warm and dry conditions expected mon
afternoon under southerly winds with a sea breeze expected at the
coast. 00z forecast models have slowed timing of pre-frontal
rainfall until late Mon night into tue, with the surface front
pressing south of SE ga by Tue afternoon then across NE fl late tue
aftn early Tue evening with clearing skies across SE ga under cooler
and dry NW low level flow. Best rain chances will focus across
inland SE ga and the suwannee river valley of NE fl from midnight
tue morning through sunrise, with decreasing rain chances across se
ga after sunrise with a continued chance of showers overspreading ne
fl through early afternoon. Latest guidance also indicated higher
stability and thus removed mention of TS from forecast with this
frontal passage. Rainfall amounts will range between 0.10-0.25" with
the GFS an outline at this time indicating up to a half inch across
parts of marion county. Shallow cold air advection Tue night under
passing high cirrus expected as surface high pressure across the
southern plains extends a ridge axis across the eastern gulf coast
states and southern ga.

Temperatures will trend above normal Monday with highs in the 70s,
upper 60s coast. Mon night min temps will range in the 50s. Trailing
the cold front passage Tuesday, temperatures will fall back to near
to just below climo values by Wed with highs in the lower 60s and
min temps in the upper 30s lower 40s.

Long term Thu through sun...

thu-fri... A warming trend and mostly dry conditions under near zonal
upper level flow with waves of high clouds over the area as surface
high pressure builds east toward the mid-atlantic region. Locally
onshore flow develops, with a coastal trough likely forming east of
the local coast which would bring the potential for a few coastal
showers and breezy conditions.

Sat-sun... Extended models in very good agreement next weekend as
ridging breaks down Sat as a long wave trough and surface low
pressure system approach from the west late Saturday into Sunday
with a widespread rainfall event expected across the local area.

Both gfs40 and ECMWF advertised 1-3 inches of rainfall overspreading
the area through Sunday, and included a low chance of isolated
tstorms across NE fl with the gfs40 indicating a fairly strong 50 kt
850 mb jet out of the gulf and lifted index values of 0 to -2 units.

Vfr conditions will prevail with ceilings generally above 10,000
feet through the morning hours. Some showers will lift northeast
across portions of northeast florida early this morning through
roughly the mid morning hours. This activity should remain brief
and is not expected to result in sub-vfr visibilities due to the
rain remaining on the light side. Low clouds are expected to lift
north into the area late tonight and ifr conditions cannot be
ruled out prior to sunrise, but confidence remains too low to
add to the tafs at this time.

A light onshore flow will develop today as high pressure slowly
shifts offshore. A weak inverted coastal trough will lift north
across the waters tonight with a few showers expected. Onshore
winds will slowly increase on Monday as they veer towards the
south and increase to near scec levels Monday night ahead of a
weakening cold front. The weak cold front will move through the
waters on Tuesday. Northerly winds around 15 knots will then
prevail through Wednesday night. Winds will veer to the northeast
and increase to near SCA levels over the offshore waters on

Rip currents: low risk.

Fire weather Low daytime dispersion today.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 70 46 72 56 0 0 10 30
ssi 61 50 65 54 10 10 10 20
jax 68 49 74 59 10 10 10 20
sgj 63 53 73 60 20 10 10 30
gnv 70 49 76 60 10 0 10 40
ocf 71 51 78 59 20 0 10 30

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shuler enyedi

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JXUF1 9 mi118 min 50°F
DMSF1 12 mi52 min 51°F
BLIF1 13 mi52 min Calm G 0 49°F 1025.7 hPa (+0.4)49°F
LTJF1 16 mi52 min 49°F 46°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi52 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 51°F1024.9 hPa (+0.3)
RCYF1 31 mi52 min 52°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi52 min NE 1 G 1.9 48°F 49°F1025.5 hPa (+0.6)
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 34 mi52 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 51°F1025.5 hPa (+1.4)
41117 36 mi60 min 51°F2 ft
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 38 mi52 min 48°F1 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi67 min NNE 4.1 52°F 1026 hPa43°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL0 mi59 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F45°F83%1024.7 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL11 mi59 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F46°F96%1024.8 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair45°F42°F93%1024.7 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi60 minNW 59.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1024.7 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL18 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F41°F80%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmN3N7N5N5NE4N3NE4SE3SE4CalmSE6SW3CalmCalmSW3N3CalmCalmSW3N3CalmS3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmN4N6N5E3SE7E6E5E4CalmE6E3CalmSW4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmSW3N3NW3
2 days agoNW9N13N11N10N7N4N6N4N4N3CalmSW3E5S4CalmCalmW4W5W5SW6W4CalmSW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida
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Piney Point
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Sun -- 01:10 AM EST     6.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     5.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:50 PM EST     6.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:50 PM EST     5.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Sun -- 12:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:06 AM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:50 PM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.