Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orange Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:52PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 7:39 PM EDT (23:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 302 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Thursday through Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night and Saturday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a choppy. A chance of showers.
Sunday..East southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 302 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis.. Strong high pressure will remain centered over the carolinas and mid-atlantic states through Saturday. Strong northeasterly winds will prevail through tonight, with small craft advisory conditions expected on all area waters. Small craft advisories will remain in effect offshore through at least Thursday night, with elevated onshore winds and elevated seas expected to continue into the weekend. A strong cold front will then approach our region from the west on Monday, with winds shifting to a southerly direction and chances for showers and Thunderstorms increasing.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange Park, FL
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location: 30.24, -81.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 182006
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
406 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Currently
Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1031
millibars) centered over the carolinas and virginia. The cold
front that passed through our region on Monday night remains
stalled over southern florida. Aloft... A broad low to mid level
trough over our region is beginning to move offshore, with
ridging amplifying over the western gulf of mexico. A tight
pressure gradient prevails over our region, with windy conditions
prevailing along the coast and breezy northeasterly winds over
inland portions of northeast florida. Fair skies prevail over
inland southeast georgia, where temperatures have climbed into the
upper 70s with comfortable dewpoints in the 50s. Convergent
onshore winds have advected a cumulus and stratocumulus cloud
field over northeast and north central florida, with a weak
trough over the coastal waters combining with the departing trough
aloft to generate scattered showers that are migrating into the
near shore waters. Temperatures in northeast and north central
florida were generally in the 75-80 range with dewpoints in the
60s.

Near term through Thursday ...

ridging aloft will continue to amplify over the western and
central gulf of mexico, while surface high pressure moves only
slowly northeastward over the mid-atlantic states while gradually
weakening. This weather pattern will maintain a northeasterly flow
from the surface up through about 10,000 feet over our region,
with flow above that veering to northwesterly. Weak coastal
troughs will migrate onshore over coastal southeast georgia and
northeast florida through early Thursday afternoon, bringing
periods of scattered showers to locations east of the u.S. Highway
301 corridor. Activity will remain low-topped and generally brief
in nature tonight, with short-term, high resolution models
targeting coastal camden, nassau and duval counties with the best
chances for measurable rainfall overnight. Low level flow will
veer to a more easterly direction over southeast georgia
overnight, which will shut off cool air advection. However,
radiational cooling conditions are expected inland later tonight,
with lows over inland southeast georgia and the northern suwannee
valley falling to the 55-60 range. Lows elsewhere over inland
northeast and north central florida will fall to 60-65, with
breezy onshore winds keeping lows for locations east of i-95 in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Our local pressure gradient will loosen slightly on Thursday, but
near windy conditions will prevail in coastal locations and breezy
conditions will redevelop over inland northeast and north central
florida during the late morning and afternoon hours. Drier air
will push southward into southeast georgia on the heels of the
northwesterly flow pattern aloft, which should keep scattered
showers mostly confined to coastal northeast florida. A few
showers may move inland past the u.S. Highway 301 corridor during
the afternoon hours. Highs will climb back above normal as heights
aloft rise, with low to mid 80s expected inland, with onshore
winds keeping coastal highs in the upper 70s to near 80.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night ...

Thursday night through Saturday night... Large and strong surface
high to the north will gradually shift east off the east coast by
Saturday. Breezy northeast winds will continue as the pressure
gradient remains tight. Isolated to scattered showers along the ne
fl coast will develop north and affect the ga coast as winds
become more east to southeast Saturday and Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

a return flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions
starting Sunday as an approaching vigorous trough approaches the
lower ms river valley from the west. A more unstable airmass will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and Monday. Storms may become strong to severe Monday afternoon
into Monday night as vertical shear increases with upper shortwave
trough and associated cold front to the west. Models indicate a
deepening surface low near the central gulf region Monday... Moving
into the NE u.S. On Tuesday. Models similar in moving upper
trough and frontal boundary across the area early Tuesday morning
with drier and cooler air spreading across SE ga NE fl. Surface
high pressure will build into the southern plains which will
produce breezy offshore winds and cool conditions through
Wednesday with temperatures at or below average.

Aviation
MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet are expected at ssi through at
least 06z, with occasional MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet possible
at the duval county terminals. Showers are expected to move
onshore into duval county towards 00z, with periods of ceilings
around 2000 feet possible at the duval county terminals during
the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise,VFR conditions will
prevail. Gusty northeasterly winds are expected through 00z at the
regional terminals, with sustained surface speeds near 20 knots
at sgj and around 15 knots elsewhere, with frequent gusts of 20-30
knots possible. Winds will decrease after 00z, but will remain
breezy at sgj and ssi.

Marine
Strong high pressure will remain centered to the north of our
region through the upcoming weekend, keeping a tight pressure
gradient in place over our region. Small craft advisory conditions
will continue through Thursday morning over the near shore waters
and through at least Thursday night offshore. Seas of 5-7 feet
will prevail near shore, with 6-9 foot seas prevailing through at
least Thursday afternoon offshore. Small craft will need to
exercise caution in the near shore waters on Thursday, as
northeasterly winds will remain in the 15-20 knot range with seas
of 4-6 feet. Winds and seas will remain at caution levels near
shore through the weekend, and seas offshore may remain at sca
levels past Thursday night into the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach our region from the west by late Monday, with
winds becoming southerly by Monday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms should overspread area waters by Monday night along
the front.

Rip currents high surf: high risk of rip currents continues
through Thursday at area beaches. Breaker heights of 5-7 feet will
continue this afternoon, with the high surf advisory set to expire
at 7 pm this evening.

Hydrology
The coastal flood warning has been extended into duval county, as
tide gauges in downtown jacksonville and on surrounding
tributaries within the st. Johns basin reached moderate flood
levels during the morning high tide. Strong onshore winds and the
approach of the new moon will keep water levels elevated during
the next several days. A coastal flood advisory continues for
nassau, camden, and glynn counties through at least Thursday
morning, with minor coastal flooding expected along the beaches.

The coastal flood warning is in effect for the st. Johns basin
through at least Thursday morning, with moderate flooding also
occurring along coastal st. Johns and flagler counties during
times of high tide.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 56 82 55 82 0 10 0 0
ssi 67 79 67 80 30 10 10 10
jax 63 80 66 81 40 20 10 20
sgj 72 81 70 81 30 40 20 20
gnv 63 84 64 85 10 20 10 10
ocf 64 84 65 86 10 20 10 20

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for coastal duval-
coastal nassau-flagler-st. Johns.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt Thursday for coastal
nassau.

Coastal flood warning until 11 am edt Thursday for clay-coastal
duval-flagler-inland duval-putnam-st. Johns.

High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for coastal duval-
coastal nassau-flagler-st. Johns.

Ga... High rip current risk through Thursday evening for coastal
camden-coastal glynn.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt Thursday for coastal
camden-coastal glynn.

Am... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Thursday for coastal waters
from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm.

Nelson zibura corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JXUF1 9 mi52 min 79°F
DMSF1 12 mi52 min 79°F
BLIF1 13 mi52 min NNE 12 G 18 74°F 1022.5 hPa72°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi52 min NE 19 G 25 74°F 77°F1021.6 hPa
RCYF1 31 mi52 min 79°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 32 mi52 min NNE 11 G 18 74°F 76°F1022.5 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 34 mi40 min NNE 25 G 28 76°F 78°F1020.3 hPa (+0.0)
41117 36 mi48 min 79°F8 ft
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 38 mi40 min 78°F7 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi115 min NNE 13 76°F 1022 hPa71°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL0 mi47 minNNE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1021 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL11 mi47 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1021.4 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi50 minNE 11 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F83%1021.3 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi48 minNNE 19 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy75°F68°F79%1021 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL18 mi44 minNNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F66°F79%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN17N15N13NW11NW7NW5NW4NW12NW11N13N15N13N13N12NE17
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1 day agoE8E13NE5NE3N3N20
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2 days agoE7NE4E5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N5NE4N5NE5N6N5E5E9E6

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida
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Piney Point
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Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     5.60 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:44 AM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EDT     5.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:05 PM EDT     6.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.46.265.85.75.65.766.26.46.56.66.56.265.85.75.65.65.96.26.46.56.6

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:36 PM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:33 PM EDT     2.26 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.2-2.3-2.1-1.3-0.21.22.12.42.21.50-1.3-2.1-2.4-2.4-2-10.41.62.22.21.70.5-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.