Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:31 AM CDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Destin To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 945 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Destin Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 60 Nm Including Mobile Bay- 945 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..A generally light southerly flow persists through the middle of this week as high pressure builds into the gulf from the east. Strong onshore flow and building seas then redevelop late this week as another weather system approaches from the west.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 260154 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
854 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Discussion See updated information for land and marine areas below.

Update Latest upper air analysis shows an upper low to be
located over NE mo and continuing to move nne. This is acting to
further detach the kinematics and forcing from the warm sector
over the central gulf coast region. As a result, frontal zone is
being stretched and sheared (winds are a bit more westerly below
500 hpa which is given the frontal band a little bit of a shove
eastward). 26.00 utc data show the base of the mid- and upper wave
to be currently moving through our area and upward motion along
and ahead of the aforementioned frontal band is gradually being
replaced by large scale subsidence. The three goes-r WV bands
show drier air advecting into the mid-levels across our area, and
with now rain-soaked grounds will likely have some patchy dense
fog. Not really buying into a second, but brief, round of
precipitation during the late night hours (sfc front already
begins to retreat nwd as a warm front as south flow becomes re-
established). Any additional overnight isolated showers should
remain north of i-20. The current line of thunderstorms will exit
the area by 1030 pm cdt. Lowered rain chances regionwide
significantly after midnight.

With northward moving swell continuing, most of Sunday will still
have a 'high' risk of rip currents. Have extended the high risk
until late Sunday.

Just sent new zfp, hwo, pfm and cfw for updates. Also shipped new
set of grids reflecting changes through sunrise. /23 jmm

Marine Lowered winds to be more reflective of current observations,
as expecting a southerly wind flow to become re-established
generally in the 12-16 knot range generally behind the departing
deep convective line. Small craft advisory will likely be cancelled
by the 1030 pm cdt marine update. /23 jmm

Prev discussion /issued 649 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... A line of thunderstorms currently entering the
western florida panhandle will continue to push east, impacting
pns roughly around or shortly after 26.01z. Frequent lightning,
small hail, gusty winds, and lowered cigs/vis can be expected
within and around the thunderstorms. In the wake of this line,
cigs/vis improve briefly before light southerly flow becomes
reestablished and low clouds and potentially some patchy dense fog
redevelop late tonight. Southerly winds andVFR conditions prevail
Sunday as cloud cover gradually decreases through the afternoon. /49
prev discussion... /issued 351 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
near term /now through Sunday/... Radar will be active late
afternoon and evening upcoming with regard to storms. Radar trends
show a line of storms from central alabama, southwest to off the
south central louisiana coast. These storms are forming within a
favored environment of moisture, lift and instability to the
south and east of a vigorous upper level storm system centered
over central mo. This system remains in place thru much of the
night, then ejects northeast across the upper mid-west on Sunday.

The more active eastward side of the long wave trof, where the
best deep layer ascent is positioned, moves across the forecast
area this evening. The deep layer ascent, coincident with a north
to south band of deep layer moisture (pwats ~1.3 inches) supports
maintaining categorical pops over the eastern half of the forecast
area this evening. Latest forecasts of high resolution models
bring squall line, mentioned earlier, eastward over the region
tonight. Instances of damaging winds and marginally severe large
hail (around a quarter size or so) looks to be the main impacts
in any storms that become severe in the late afternoon and
evening. As the main dynamics lift northeast late this evening and
overnight, the severe weather threat ends. High level southwest
flow continues on Sunday ahead of next storm system moving east
across the southern plains. Out of respect for subtle mid level
impulses embedded in these type flows aloft, a small chance of
showers and storms will be mentioned for Sunday.

Overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Sunday, mid 80s
interior to mid to upper 70s along the beaches. /10
short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... A weak upper
level ridge over the gulf of mexico Sunday evening will shift
eastward over the western atlantic by late Monday night. Meanwhile
an upper level trough over the southern plains will move due east
Sunday night and Monday, but is forecast to weaken as it
approaches the southeast conus. The surface high pressure ridge
across the southeastern states and eastern gulf will remain
largely intact as a surface low forming across the southern
plains also moves east to the ohio river valley region and also
weakens. A weak cold front associated with the surface low will
approach the region from the northwest, but not reach the
forecast area as it is expected to stall. It will be dry Sunday
night, followed by isolated to low-end scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with the next system.

Low temperatures Sunday night will range from 58 to 62 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue on Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs ranging
from 77 to 82 degrees, except for the mid along the immediate
coastal sections. Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will
be 2 to 4 degrees warmer compared to Sunday night. /22
long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... An upper level ridge
extending from the southeastern gulf of mexico to western ontario,
canada will shift eastward, reaching the western atlantic by late
in the week. Further to the west, a large upper level trough
extending along the front range of the rocky mountains to central
mexico will also shift eastward. An embedded upper low pressure
area within the trough over western new mexico will lift
northeast to the upper midwest through Thursday night as the
southern extent of the upper trough swings eastward across the
deep south. The surface high pressure ridge across the
southeastern states and eastern gulf will move eastward as a
surface low forming across the southern plains lifts northeast to
the great lakes region. A weak cold front associated with the
surface low will approach the forecast area from the west Thursday
night.

Other then a few showers midweek, it will be dry Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will then accompany the next system on Thursday and Thursday
night. The precipitation will then taper off from west to east on
Friday in the wake of the front followed by high pressure building
in from the west. Above normal temperatures will continue through
the long term. /22
marine... Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher with the
passage of a line of storms this evening. Some of the marine
storms potentially severe late this afternoon into the evening.

Due to a moderate to strong onshore flow and seas upwards of
around 7 feet through this evening, small craft advisories have
been extended thru 11 pm this evening for the open alabama and
western florida gulf waters. The advisory over southern mobile bay
and the mississippi sound will be left unchanged, expiring at 7
pm and will likely be replaced by exercise caution headlines.

After tonight, high pressure to the east maintains a light onshore
component of flow through the middle of next week with a lowering
trend in seas. /10

Mob watches/warnings/advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm cdt this evening for gmz650-655-
670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.Gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTA1 8 mi61 min ESE 6 67°F 1017.6 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi106 min 61°F 60°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi41 min SSE 12 G 16 69°F 69°F4 ft1017.4 hPa (-0.0)
WBYA1 14 mi43 min 72°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi43 min SSE 13 G 14 68°F
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi31 min SE 13 G 15 68°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 22 mi91 min ESE 9.9 67°F 1016.9 hPa (+1.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi61 min SSE 7 68°F 1016.9 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi61 min SSE 8.9 1016.9 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi49 min E 2.9 G 6 64°F 70°F1018.3 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 32 mi61 min ESE 6 61°F 1017.6 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 34 mi43 min SE 4.1 G 7 65°F 70°F1017.7 hPa
PTOA1 35 mi43 min 65°F 62°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi49 min 64°F 66°F1017.2 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 40 mi106 min S 11 69°F 1018 hPa64°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi43 min S 11 G 12 68°F 1017.4 hPa
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 44 mi43 min 72°F
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 44 mi43 min S 7 G 11 69°F 1016.3 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 47 mi43 min S 11 G 12 70°F 1016.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi49 min 71°F

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi37 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F100%1017.9 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair57°F57°F100%1017.3 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi36 minE 7 miA Few Clouds64°F61°F90%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE8
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NW4S6NW6CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE16
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2 days agoNW3N4N4N4N4NE3NE3N3E14
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SE8SE9SE8SE9SE8E11
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:53 AM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:59 PM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM CDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:06 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:33 PM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.110.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.911.11.11.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:36 AM CDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:13 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 PM CDT     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:07 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-1-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.2-00.10.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.