Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Shores, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday December 11, 2018 11:53 PM CST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ650 Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 910 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018
Rest of tonight..Winds light. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday..Winds light becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming south. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 5 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 910 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis..Winds shift to southerly Wednesday as high pressure builds over the eastern gulf. A moderate to strong onshore flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday night ahead of the next approaching cold front. Winds become northwesterly behind the front late this week into this weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are likely for the end of the week into the first part of the weekend due to strong winds and rough seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Shores, AL
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location: 30.24, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 120544 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1144 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Temperatures have already dropped into the upper 20s to
lower 30s across the forecast area, including much of the coastal
sections. The cirrus canopy will continue to increase in thickness
through the overnight hours, so the lowering trend should decrease
substantially through the remainder of the night. As a result,
temperatures will hold nearly steady or only drop another degree
or two across the area through daybreak. Updated public forecasts
have been sent. 22

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
late Wednesday afternoon or early evening as a cirrus canopy (25k
feet) continues to thicken. Calm to light and varible winds will
occur overnight into Wednesday morning, followed by south to
southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon hours. These
southerly winds will bring low level moisture back northward from
the gulf of mexico, so expect increasing low clouds and MVFR
ceilings from 2500 to 3000 feet late Wednesday afternoon and
evening along the north central gulf coast region. 22

Prev discussion issued 328 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
near term now through Wednesday ... Upper level ridge continues
to build overhead as the corresponding surface high shifts east
over south alabama tonight. Clear skies will allow temperatures to
rapidly fall with lows in the 30s throughout the forecast area.

By morning the upper-level flow will gradually become more zonal
allowing for cirrus and additional cloud cover to move in from the
west throughout the daytime Wednesday. Though with pwats below
0.30" rain chances are effectively zero. The surface high is
expected to shift east allowing for a weak southerly wind flow and
moisture return by the afternoon. Dj 17
short term Wednesday night through Friday night ... An upper trof
advances across the central states and forms a deep upper low over
texas on Thursday. An associated surface low occludes while
advancing eastward along the red river valley meanwhile, with a
split jet structure aloft and low level warm air advection
resulting in a line of strong deep layer forcing advancing across
the lower mississippi river valley. The region of strong deep
layer lift shifts eastward across the forecast area Thursday night
followed by the occluded system continuing slowly eastward
further into the southeast states. The region of strong deep layer
lift will manifest as a line of convection, but while very high
shear is indicated, instability remains limited. The 850 mb jet
increases to 45-50 knots which results in 0-1 km helicity values
of 200-400 m2 s2 Thursday night. MLCAPE values are pretty abysmal
inland although over the coastal counties values of 300-500 j kg
are expected. Model soundings show that lapse rates have improved
over the coastal counties within the lowest 3 km, in fact even up
to 700 mb or so. There is the possibility that cool water
temperatures over the bays (in the 50s) and near shore water
temperatures in the lower mid 60s could create unfavorable lapse
rates in a very shallow near surface layer. That said, surface
based convection looks possible if not probable by the time the
line of convection moves through. Expect that this improvement in
the lapse rates is due to the effects of the strong deep layer
lift, which tends to improve lapse rates better at lower levels
compared to further aloft. This is not the case generally north of
the coastal counties however, where unfavorable lapse rates
persist at least in the lowest 1.5 km despite the strength of the
deep layer lift. Will have pops increasing to categorical on
Thursday over the western portion of the area, tapering to chance
pops further to the east, then categorical pops continue for the
entire area Thursday night. Pops taper off on Friday to mostly
slight chance as wrap around precipitation continues in the wake
of a cold front expected to follow shortly behind the line of
convection Thursday night, then dry conditions develop Friday
night. 29
long term Saturday through Tuesday ... Dry conditions continue
through the period as the large, deep system continues eastward
away from the area and into the western atlantic. Temperatures
will be near or slight below seasonable values through the period,
roughly near 40 at night and around 60 each day. 29
marine... Surface ridge shifts east overnight tonight allowing
an onshore flow to develop by Wednesday afternoon. This onshore
flow strengthens Wednesday ahead of the next front. A strong
onshore flow develops Thursday afternoon with showers and isolated
thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the marine zones into
the late afternoon and evening hours. Wave heights increase to
between 7-9 feet in the overnight hours Thursday night into Friday
with hazardous conditions for small craft expected. After the
front passes light showers may persist and waves offshore linger
above 9 feet (with some as high as 12 feet) into Saturday before
tapering off Saturday evening. Dj 17

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 10 mi84 min E 1.9 44°F 1026.1 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 14 mi34 min 1.9 G 3.9 1026.4 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 14 mi69 min 36°F 1026 hPa36°F
WBYA1 14 mi36 min 55°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 18 mi36 min Calm G 1 50°F 1025.8 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 20 mi54 min Calm G 1 50°F 1026.4 hPa (-1.1)44°F
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 24 mi54 min NW 2.9 47°F 1026.1 hPa (-1.0)
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 28 mi36 min N 1 G 1.9 43°F 58°F1026.4 hPa
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi84 min N 1.9 52°F 1027.1 hPa
MBPA1 29 mi36 min 42°F 39°F
PTOA1 35 mi36 min 44°F 43°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 37 mi42 min 41°F 53°F1026.2 hPa
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 43 mi36 min Calm G 0 49°F 1026.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 47 mi42 min 62°F

Wind History for Fort Morgan, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Edwards Airport, AL4 mi79 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist34°F34°F100%1026.4 hPa
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi79 minN 07.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1026.7 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL21 mi58 minNNW 34.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from JKA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N4NW5NW4NW5CalmN3NW3NW9N5N6N4NW4W6W6W7W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN7NW7N6NW8NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama
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Bon Secour
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:05 AM CST     1.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:59 AM CST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.61.41.31.10.80.60.30.20-0-0-000.20.30.50.70.911.11.21.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:40 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM CST     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:40 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:41 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:52 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:51 PM CST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:42 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.3-0.2-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.7-1.8-1.9-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.10.60.91.21.51.61.61.61.41.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.