Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dauphin Island, AL

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Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 7:57PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 12:06 PM CDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1008 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1008 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionaly strong southwest wind flow will persist over the marine area through Thursday evening in response to a weak upper level system slowly tracking eastward over the north central gulf states, combined with a strong surface ridge of high pressure building west over the eastern and north central gulf. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Friday through early next week as the ridge of high pressure to the east continues to build west. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will continue over the marine area through Friday with less coverage over the weekend and early next week. Gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and isolated waterspouts will be possible with some of the stronger Thunderstorms through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dauphin Island, AL
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location: 30.25, -88.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191602 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1102 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Discussion See updated information below.

Update Have decided to increase rain chances mostly over
northern and western sections of our forecast area this afternoon
and this evening. Current visible satellite loops continue to
show a well defined outflow boundary to our west likely reaching
our western zones later this afternoon. With decent surface based
instability, capes running above 2k for most inland areas
already, sufficient moisture up to 5 kft combined with continued
mid level forcing due to another weak mid level impulse
approaching from the west also we will likely see better coverage
than earlier anticipated. With these conditions along with plenty
of dry aloft a few strong thunderstorms will also be possible
leading to gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning along with short durations of very heavy rain. Stay
tuned to local media outlets or NOAA weather radio if threatening
weather is approaching your area. 32 ee

Marine A moderate to occasionaly strong southwest wind flow
will persist over the marine area through Thursday evening in
response to a weak upper level system slowly tracking eastward over
the north central gulf states, combined with a strong surface ridge
of high pressure building west over the eastern and north central
gulf. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Friday through early next
week as the ridge of high pressure to the east continues to build
west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
marine area through Friday with less coverage over the weekend and
early next week. Gusty straight line winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning and isolated waterspouts will be possible with some of the
stronger thunderstorms through Friday. Small craft should exercise
caution for most marine locations through this evening. 32 ee

Aviation
18z issuance... Expect mostlyVFR conditions through 20.18z. Could
see short periods of MVFR to ifr CIGS mainly in heavy rain from
scattered showers and thunderstoms later today and this evening
tapering off overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving
from west to east through the forecast period with a few strong
storms possible this afternoon and evening. Gusty straight line
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be the main threats
with the stronger storms. Winds will be mostly southwest at 10 to
15 knots with slightly higher gusts through this evening
diminishing to 5 to 10 knots overnight through early Thu morning.

32 ee

Prev discussion issued 636 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Radar shows an eastward advance of isolated am
coastal shra tsra. CIGS are mostly at high levels but occasional
lower bases at upper end MVFR categories possible with passage of
isolated to scattered shra tsra today. Occasional MVFR vsby with
passage of convection as well. Thru the day, a gradual increase in
southwest winds could become gusty at times. 10
prev discussion... Issued 414 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
near term now through Wednesday night ... Radar data shows
isolated to scattered showers and storms confined to the northwest
fl panhandle gulf coast this morning and offshore. Repeated storm
motions over the same area resulted in isolated pockets of 3 to 6
inch rain accumulations near the gulf breeze fl area earlier in
the forecast shift. This prompted short-fused flood
statements warnings for increased potential of flooded roads.

Fortunately, a gradual eastward shift in the precipitation is
occurring as an upper level short-wave trof over western al also
migrates east. Latest mesoscale analysis also indicates a west to
east zone from the ms sound to the near shore northwest fl
panhandle coastal waters of an elevated potential of morning
waterspout formation. For today, the mid level short-wave advances
east to over the southeast us with mid level flow flattening over
the area. Deep layer moisture is reduced somewhat but values
between 1.5 and 1.7 inches will remain sufficient for the
development of isolated to scattered showers and storms with the
heat and instability of the day. Similar to Tuesday, although the
risk of widespread severe storms is low today, forecasters can't
completely rule out an isolated occurrence with the main threat
being localized damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain and
frequent lightning will also pose a significant hazard with the
stronger storms.

Next in a series of mid level trof features advances into the mid
south late tonight and brings with it and eastward spread of
organized convection into the oh river valley southwest to
northern al ms down thru ar. Appears the bulk of this activity
will stay to the north of the local area through tonight.

Daytime highs recover mostly into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Overnight lows remain muggy. Risk of dangerous to potentially
deadly rip currents at the beaches remains high. 10
short term Thursday through Friday night ... An upper trof located
near the mississippi river valley advances eastward across the
eastern states and begins to move into the western atlantic late
Thursday night. An amplifying upper ridge builds into the eastern
states during the remainder of the period while the upper trof
continues off into the western atlantic. A surface ridge oriented
east-west over the northern gulf meanwhile maintains a light,
moist southwest flow over the forecast area with surface dewpoints
ranging from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s near the coast.

For Thursday, MLCAPE values near 2500 j kg are still indicated,
possibly reaching 3000, although model soundings also continue to
show a warm layer centered near 800 mb which will need to be
overcome by daytime heating in order for deep convection to
develop. With afternoon highs in the lower 90s, this should be
sufficient to overcome the cap warm layer, although the issue now
is how much coverage can be expected in response to a weak sea
breeze and modest shortwaves moving across the area. Have opted to
continue with chance pops for now, but it's possible lower pops
could be utilized on subsequent shifts. Bulk shear values (0-6
km) will be higher Thursday morning, around 25-35 knots, then
trend lower to 20-30 knots in the afternoon when potential deep
convection develops (overcomes the warm layer near 800 mb). Given
the fairly high instability and also mid level dry air, will still
maintain the possibility of a severe storm or two for Thursday
despite weakening environmental shear. For Friday, subsidence
associated with the upper ridge building into the region will
start to suppress convective development and coverage should be
mostly isolated. Although shear values will be very low on Friday,
mlcape values around 2500 j kg will be present in the afternoon,
and with mid level dry air still see some potential for a possible
severe storm or two. Heat index values around 105 are expected
Thursday afternoon over the southern portion of the area, then
most of the area on Friday. These values should remain below heat
advisory criteria of 108 but will need to be monitored. Overnight
lows will be about 5 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid
70s inland to the upper 70s near the coast. A high risk of rip
currents continues along area beaches through Friday evening. 29
long term Saturday through Tuesday ... The upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens and moves off into the western atlantic as
an upper trof advances across the plains then moves across the
great lakes region. A surface ridge remains in place over the
northern gulf and maintains a moist southerly flow over the
forecast area through the period. Subsidence associated with the
upper ridge is expected to suppress convective development and
have continued with a dry forecast for Saturday and Sunday
although it's possible a storm or two could develop. Slight chance
to chance pops return to the forecast for Monday and Tuesday with
the departure of the upper ridge. Highs each day typically range
from 90 to 95 and lows range from the lower 70s inland to the mid
70s at the coast. 29
marine... Main threats in the near term will be potential of
waterspouts. Remember, waterspouts can also form even under rain
free cumulus. High pressure over the southwest atlantic noses
westward into the gulf and maintains a southwest wind component.

Meanwhile, a frontal wave of low pressure moves out of the
central plains and up across the oh river valley through Thursday.

This results in a strengthening southwest flow and building seas.

Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters the
next couple days. Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and
near showers and storms. 10

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Friday evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 0 mi67 min WSW 8.9 G 13 84°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.6)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 3 mi49 min W 13 G 15 82°F 1013.6 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 5 mi67 min WSW 13 83°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.7)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 7 mi67 min W 13 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 14 mi97 min W 12 83°F 1013.2 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 18 mi82 min 83°F 1014 hPa71°F
WBYA1 18 mi49 min 82°F
MBPA1 19 mi49 min 87°F 73°F
GBRM6 20 mi127 min 86°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 20 mi82 min W 8.9 86°F 1015 hPa75°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 23 mi55 min W 12 G 14 1013.7 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 27 mi55 min 83°F
PPTA1 28 mi67 min 84°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 28 mi55 min SW 8 G 11 87°F 84°F1013.2 hPa
PTOA1 29 mi55 min 87°F 73°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 30 mi157 min SSW 6 82°F 1013.9 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 31 mi87 min 4 ft
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 32 mi55 min 87°F 84°F1013.1 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 47 mi49 min SSW 1.9 G 7 85°F 84°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Dauphin Island, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL18 mi72 minWSW 310.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1013.9 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi72 minW 12 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F74°F69%1013.9 hPa

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CalmCalmCalmSW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW6SW4SW4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW6SW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Dauphin Island, Alabama
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Dauphin Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:41 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:48 PM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.91.11.31.41.51.51.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current
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Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:37 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:17 AM CDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:14 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:00 PM CDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.20.71.21.61.92.22.32.22.11.81.30.80.2-0.5-1.1-1.6-2-2.3-2.4-2.3-2-1.7-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.