Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday May 19, 2019 5:41 AM CDT (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 342 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2019
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 342 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis..A squall line of Thunderstorms is expected to move off the coast later this morning, bringing gusty winds and locally rough seas with its passage from north to south. Otherwise, high pressure across the gulf states will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 190815
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
315 am cdt Sun may 19 2019

Short term A region of increased upper level difluence and a
passing weak shortwave trough axis will support the continued
development of convective activity over the next few hours across
southwest and central louisiana. This area of convection is
expected to move into northwest portions of the forecast area
around daybreak. Fortunately, conditions will turn less favorable
for severe thunderstorm development early this morning as low
level shear decreases. With this in mind, any convection that
moves in should be in a weakening phase of development. However,
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could impact areas north
and west of baton rouge with damaging winds being the main threat.

This initial band of convection will continue to push east and
should be pushing into the central part of the cwa, generally
along the i-55 corridor, by mid to late morning. Fortunately, weak
shear profiles and marginal mid-level lapse rates of around 6.0
c km will limit the severe potential during this period. This
initial band of convection should weaken to not much more than an
outflow boundary sparking off additional convection across the
mississippi coast by the afternoon hours.

Further to the west, the difluent pattern aloft combined with
daytime heating pushing MLCAPE values back to around 2000 j kg
could produce another round of showers and thunderstorms across
part of southwest mississippi and metro new orleans during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Fortunately, the marginally unstable
mid- level lapse rates of around 6.0 c km should limit severe
potential during the afternoon hours. At most, an isolated strong
to severe thunderstorm could develop. Once again, the weak shear
profiles would tend to favor localized damaging wind events
associated with microbursts over all other convective threats.

Most of the convection should dissipate shortly after sunset as
cape values decrease and upper level ridging builds in from the
west. At most, weak marine layer showers and thunderstorms may
persist through the overnight hours along coastal mississippi and
portions of southeast louisiana mainly east of i-55.

Tomorrow will see the ridge axis continue to build in, but a
fairly deep pool of moisture will linger over the region. This is
evident by precipitable water values that are expected to remain
above 1.7 inches. The combination of moisture and increasing
instability associated with daytime heating should spark off
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and
afternoon hours. The convection should develop along a seabreeze
boundary, and this will keep the higher rain chances along and
north of the i-10 corridor through the afternoon hours. Overall,
tomorrow will resemble our typical summer pattern of seabreeze
induced convection. A few stronger thunderstorms could develop,
but organized widespread severe thunderstorms will not be a
threat. Any convection will quickly dissipate shortly after sunset
as instability decreases, and fully expect to see dry conditions
in place by the late evening hours.

Deep layer ridging will be in firm control of the area by Tuesday,
and subsidence throughout the atmospheric column will result in
warmer and drier conditions taking hold. Precipitable water values
will fall to less than 1.5 inches and mid-level lapse rates will
drop to 5.5 c km and lower. As a result, little in the way of
cloud development is expected and no rain is in the forecast.

Temperatures will also begin to warm, and daytime highs will
easily reach into the lower 90s away from the immediate coast.

Long term A very stagnant weather pattern will dominate the
region through the holiday weekend as a deep layer ridge axis
remains parked over the gulf south. Strong subsidence throughout
the atmospheric column will keep the atmosphere dry and stable.

Little to no cloud development is expected through the period, and
rain chances will be suppressed. This sinking airmass and
resultant compressional heating will also push temperatures into
the middle 90s for areas away from the immediate coast each day.

Areas along the coast should warm into the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overnight lows will cool into the lower to middle 70s each
night allowing for a reprieve from the heat. Fortunately, humidity
values will also be on the lower end, so heat index readings will
only be a few degrees warmer than air temperature. At most, heat
indices could push into the upper 90s over the memorial day
weekend.

Aviation Main issues will be dealing with convection that may reach the
westernmost terminals in an organized manner as a squall line around
or shortly after daybreak. Some pre-squall line showers noted
between khdc and kbtr are on marine layer cloud streets and are low-
topped, but may become more prominent as the squall line approaches
and ingests these streets into the main outflow structure in time.

Gust potential appears to be in the 40-50 kt range from any storms,
along with ifr ceilings and vsby in torrential rainfall, as noted in
trends of storms farther west. The front forcing this convection is
still expected to elongate and undergo frontolytic dissipation later
today, with convection dissipating from north-to-south towards
sunset. Wet soils and somewhat reduced dewpoints may allow for
radiational and steam fog formation later tonight, particularly as
winds become light to calm after 06z. 24 rr

Marine Weak frontal zone approaching the coast is expected to stall along
or just north of the coast later today. This front has generated a
pre-frontal squall line that is likely to move off the coast mid- to
late morning. Any organized convection is likely to weaken while
moving south, but still maintain some presence over the outer
coastal waters later this afternoon. Marine gust potential appears
to be gale strength, 35 to 45 knots with any storms this morning and
afternoon. After this feature runs its course, a return to deep
fetched onshore flow becomes established in a steady state fashion
as high pressure builds over the coastal plains throughout the week.

24 rr

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: high impact desk
activities: tornado watch #191 until 1500utc.

Numerous river flood warnings.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or
excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk
severe or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe
and or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats;
events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 86 70 90 71 70 20 40 20
btr 87 73 90 73 60 10 50 20
asd 87 72 89 72 70 30 40 20
msy 87 75 89 75 60 20 30 10
gpt 84 74 86 74 50 40 30 10
pql 87 72 88 71 40 30 30 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi48 min SSE 4.1 G 7 78°F 79°F1011.6 hPa
CARL1 22 mi48 min 70°F
FREL1 23 mi48 min S 7 G 8.9 79°F 1011.3 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi48 min SE 15 G 18 78°F 83°F1012.3 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi48 min SSE 7 G 8.9 78°F 81°F1012.2 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi48 min SSE 15 G 18 79°F 80°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi49 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1012.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi49 minSSE 129.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1011.7 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi49 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4SE9S13
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S8S9SE9S11SE7SE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmN453CalmNE63S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:54 AM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:40 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.30.40.60.80.91.11.21.31.31.31.210.80.60.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:00 PM CDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.1-000.20.30.40.50.70.811.11.21.21.21.110.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.