Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:57PM Thursday September 21, 2017 4:09 PM CDT (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 319 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 21 2017
Tonight..East winds near 5 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 319 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis.. A large ridge of high pressure covering most of the eastern u.s. Will extend into the central gulf coast region through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 210842
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
342 am cdt Thu sep 21 2017

Short term
The upper level pattern across the gulf south will be little
changed through Saturday as a broad and weak upper level trough
extends across the southeastern conus, and a broad area of high
pressure remains parked over the plains and midwestern states.

The region will remain in an area of higher upper level vorticity
and resultant forcing. This would lend toward greater convective
coverage, but a significant limiting factor will be in play
through Saturday. This factor is the advection of drier mid-level
air into the area that is expected to push precipitable water
values from around 1.7 to 1.8 inches today to 1.5 inches by Friday
and Saturday. This drop in available moisture and a slight
increase in mid-level temperatures will reduce lapse rates and
increase convective inhibition as the short term period progresses
forward. Expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms
redevelop from late morning into the afternoon hours today with
the high pop values near the seabreeze boundary along the
mississippi coast. Tomorrow will see slightly less coverage, and
by Saturday only expect to see isolated showers and thunderstorms
develop during peak heating hours in the afternoon. The drier
airmass and less cloud cover should allow for continued above
normal daytime highs in the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be
slightly above normal in the lower to middle 70s.

Long term
The upper level pattern will shift slightly on Sunday and Monday
with a broad and weak upper level low becoming more centered over
the forecast area. As this upper level low moves in, it will also
advect in greater mid-level moisture pushing precipitable water
values back to near 2 inches. With continued vorticity and higher
omega values in place in the upper levels and less convective
inhibition, expect to see greater convective coverage and higher
pop values develop for both Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms should fire up from mid-morning into the early
evening hours with more isolated activity along the coast and
offshore in the overnight hours. Pop values will range around 30
to 50 percent during this period, and also expect to see daytime
highs fall back to more normal levels in the upper 80s during this
period.

The upper level low will rapidly move northward into the tennessee
valley and weaken in response to a much stronger longwave trough
diving into the rockies. As the low pulls out, a shortwave ridge
axis will build over the area resulting in increased negative
vorticity and subsidence throughout the atmospheric column. This
sinking airmass will warm temperatures in the mid and upper
levels, and also dry out the atmosphere. A fairly strong mid-level
cap should develop by Tuesday and remain in place through
Wednesday. Precipitable water values should also fall below 1.5
inches by Wednesday. With little in the way of available moisture
or forcing in place, only expect to see very isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, and even lower rain chances by Wednesday
when the ridging aloft is expected to be strongest. The lack of
cloud development and rain activity will also allow daytime highs
to climb back above normal in the lower to possibly middle 90s.

The drier airmass should allow for temperatures to cool into the
upper 60s and lower 70s at night, and light boundary layer flow
should promote some patchy fog development from Monday night
through Wednesday night.

Aviation
A couple terminals like kmcb and kbtr will likely begin to see some
light br by 10-12z and persisting through 13-14z this morning. After
14z all terminals should move back intoVFR status through the
evening hours. Isolated to scattered shra tsra are expected in the
afternoon so will likely carry vcts or a prob30 at most taf
airports. There is a chance that a greater number of airports could
experience MVFR to possibly ifr conditions in br late tonight and
early Friday morning, but not likely at kmsy. 22 td

Marine
A large ridge of high pressure over most of the eastern u.S. Is
expected to maintain a generally weak pressure gradient resulting in
mostly light winds of 5 to 10 knots and low wave heights seas across
the lakes, sounds and coastal waters today into Friday morning. A
subtle tightening of the pressure gradient going into the weekend
and early next week should produce easterly winds up in the 10 to 15
knots range over offshore waters Friday afternoon and Friday night,
and across most of the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday. Seas
should also respond with significant wave heights rising to around 3
feet offshore. These winds should ease a bit and turn more southeast
on Monday. 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 91 70 91 70 30 20 20 20
btr 93 71 92 71 20 20 20 10
asd 90 71 90 70 30 20 30 10
msy 91 75 91 75 20 10 20 10
gpt 89 73 89 71 40 20 30 10
pql 90 70 89 69 40 20 30 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

32


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi51 min N 5.1 G 6 85°F 82°F1015 hPa
CARL1 22 mi51 min 79°F
FREL1 23 mi51 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 1013.9 hPa72°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 24 mi79 min SSW 5.8 G 12 81°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.5)75°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi57 min NE 6 G 8 87°F 87°F1015.3 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi57 min S 7 G 11 84°F 85°F1015 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi51 min NE 1 G 1.9 89°F 86°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi76 minSSE 1310.00 miThunderstorm79°F71°F77%1015.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi76 minNNW 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity89°F75°F63%1014.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi76 minNNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F70°F52%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE3CalmCalmCalmN3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3NE6N54Calm3S13Calm
1 day agoSW6S8S4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W43Calm4S35
2 days agoSW6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW36S5----S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:11 AM CDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:27 AM CDT     0.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:25 PM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 PM CDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:21 AM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM CDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:23 PM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.