Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 625 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 625 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected through early next week on the southwest periphery of a surface high dominating the southeast united states.

FXUS64 KLIX 021133 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting off the southern Rockies this morning which has initiated widespread deep convection across the Southern Great Plains. This convection is providing a thickening cirrus canopy which should mitigate strong radiational cooling sufficient for widespread fog development for much of the area with exception to the Pearl River Basin and coastal MS where skies remain clearer. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued in these areas for the expectation of patchy dense fog redeveloping around sunrise this morning.

We'll continue to monitor the progress of the convective systems nearing SW LA this hour, but CAM guidance has greatly backed off this convection reaching our areas prior to the afternoon hours.
Propagation of these MCSs remains slower than forecast and maintenance of this convection all the way into our areas is less likely now. However, further redevelopment of convection during the day today across east Texas could still provide some rain to particularly northwest areas later in the day. As the shortwave departs the area through the evening hours though it would be less likely to see showers and storms creep further into the area as subsidence begins to suppress maintenance of new convection. As a result, will back down PoPs for areas especially along the coast.

Friday rain chances area much healthier areawide with showers and storms gradually spreading over the area in association with a weaker shortwave trough following along within the persistent west-southwesterly flow of this longwave pattern. Impacts from severe weather and excessive rainfall are overall minimal in assocation with these two rounds of rain chances.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long term looks rather hot and humid as we move deeper into May. Aside from a few glancing blows from ejecting weak shortwaves provide slight chances of rain in northern areas this weekend, the longwave pattern amplifies once again with a deep west coast trough enhancing mid-level ridging overhead. This will keep us rain free, but still entrenched in persistent southeasterly flow at the surface which will continue to pump gulf moisture through the area. High mid-level temps and muggy overnight conditions will also mean the potential for above normal high temperatures well into the upper 80s to low 90s into next week. While not quite record-breaking for most sites, it will certainly be feeling more like we skipped ahead to June.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

IFR to LIFR CIGs are the prevailing impact at most terminals this morning with southeast wind just strong enough to keep more dense fog from settling at the surface. Even so, VIS impacts are evident especially at ASD, MCB, and HDC this morning. CIGs /VIS impacts should gradually improve at all terminals through the morning. BKN skies will be on the increase by midday as remnant convection from a weakening squall line approaches from the west. -RA will become more prevalent at BTR, MCB, and HDC especially in the afternoon. Cannot rule out periods of TS impacts in these areas primarily north of the I-10 corridor. Thereafter, a break in the rain but MVFR to IFR CIGs building back in tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure centered to our east over Southeast CONUS will keep the coastal waters in persistent southeast winds of around 10 knots through the weekend and into next week. Seas will also be fairly persistent at 1 to 3 feet through the period.
Overall, no significant concerns to maritime operations are anticipated through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 65 78 64 / 50 30 60 20 BTR 85 70 82 68 / 50 30 60 10 ASD 85 69 84 67 / 20 10 30 10 MSY 84 72 84 72 / 20 10 30 10 GPT 82 70 82 69 / 10 10 10 10 PQL 84 68 84 67 / 10 10 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-057-058-071-076-079>086.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

GM...None.

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