Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lacombe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 5:41 AM CDT (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 342 Am Cdt Wed May 23 2018
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 342 Am Cdt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis..A weak trough of low pressure will remain over the coastal waters well into next week. A stronger low could move into the southeast gulf by Thursday. This low may begin to affect the north central and northeast gulf region starting Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacombe, LA
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location: 30.25, -90.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 230905
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
405 am cdt Wed may 23 2018

Short term
The normal summer sh TS distribution to continue through at least
Thursday. Pw values will begin to move upward into the 2+" range
as deeper moisture moves in Thursday and Friday. This may be seen
as a cbrz moving from the coast by mid morning Friday but could
also occur Thursday. Precip chances will begin to move further up
afterwards.

A plume of moisture is now beginning to develop toward the area.

This will deepen and become oriented SE to NW from the yucatan
channel to near new orleans over the next 48 hours. The broad
large circulation associated with the NW caribbean sfc low should
be either inland over the yucatan or very close through Thursday.

The circulation is expected to then begin moving northward and
into the gulf by Thursday night or early Friday. This system will
be messy as dry air is brought southward on its western side and
deep moisture is brought northward to the east. The sfc low
should be able to deepen a bit once leaving the yucatan and
follow along this channel of moisture northward. This is where
things get complicated. And this is all due to the subtropical jet
which all global suites handle slightly different, and yet each
make sense... Sort of; explanation below.

A long wave trough over the open eastpac will dig today causing
the subtropical jet to buckle offshore of the baha pen. This will
also kick the large upper low over the innermountain west to the
ne. As the subtropical jet buckles southward over the eastpac, it
will buckle northward downstream over northern mexico and southern
texas by late today. This will be the first chance to get a good
sampling of these jet winds and get something concrete to injest
in the model solutions. This could occur as early as 00zThursday
or (7pm)today if we get a good set of RAOB out of northern mexico.

So the evening model runs should tend to come into better
agreement. If not, we will need to wait on the 12zThursday run
when the subtropical jet has moved into southern arizona, new
mexico and texas. The reaction to all this buckling upstream will
cause a strong buckling southward in the jet over the gulf digging
out a deep and eventually sharp upper trough. Relatively stronger
winds will continue to be brought down on the west side of this
trough causing it to become sharp and stand through the weekend
and well into next week. All models do this, but the GFS would
like to keep wind speeds the same width and equal across the
channel through the base of the trough. Although the wind speeds
do slow by 10kt as they accelerate in direction around the trough
base. This occurs even as the trough sharpens. This seems a little
suspect. The euro has this belt of winds much narrower when
accelerating through the base of the trough which would seem more
accurate. The area this occurs is near over the yucatan and the
time frame is Sun 06z, then again at 18z. But the GFS would be a
better case than the euro, bringing the area around 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall through mid next week.

All other models have something in between or totally 180 from
this. The euro wants to keep the broad sfc circulation and
attendant sfc low coupled while large convective blowups
repetitively cause their own small convective lows and
circulations. And it looks as if the euro would like to keep the
larger sfc low moving into the areas of intense convection to
couple and become the new slightly stronger sfc low. This may be
why the euro also deepens the system the most. This scenario
would also make sense, especially since the upper trough should
remain in place allowing for these intense bursts and transport of
the sfc low northward along the belt of deep moisture. If this
were to play out though, it would be the worst case scenario out
of all other model solutions by bringing the area rainfall totals
of 8 to 12 inches as the sfc low would wobble and lose stearing as
it reaches the coast.

So all in all, both these solutions are possible with only the gfs
being slightly questionable with the subtropical jet. But either
only one or something in between will eventually play out. Again,
the sampling of the subtropical jet late today or Thursday morning
will give much better clues to which or these scenarios will be
more accurate. But regardless of which solution wins, the area
will receive some relatively high totals of rainfall starting
Saturday and lasting into at least mid next week.

Aviation
CurrentlyVFR conditions at all terminals. Expect that there will be
a few locations with MVFR ceilings around and shortly after sunrise.

Any fog likely limited to kmcb and or kbtr based on the last few
mornings, plus where rain occurred on Tuesday. Don't expect any
greater areal coverage of convection than what we've seen the last
couple of afternoons, scattered around 30-40 percent. Will be
carrying either prob30 or vcts as appropriate, as these again will
not be fast movers. Convection likely to produce ifr visibilities
with possible ifr ceilings, as well as wind gusts to 30-40 knots if
a core directly affects a terminal area. While most convection
should die out with sunset, some may linger beyond that as happened
during the past few evenings. That will likely be handled with
amendments as appropriate. Most of tonight's overnight period beyond
00z will seeVFR conditions with the possible exception of kmcb,
where fog is possible around sunrise Thursday. 35

Marine
Outside of isolated scattered thunderstorms, the marine situation
should be rather quiet through at least midday on Friday. Beyond
that, conditions will be dictated by any tropical subtropical low
pressure that develops in the gulf or caribbean. Still quite a bit
of difference in the medium range model solutions with the ECMWF and
cmc on one side of the gulf, and the GFS and UKMET on the other
side. Current national center trends favoring the ECMWF side
somewhat. Needless to say, wind wave forecasts beyond midday Friday
can be considered to have lower confidence than usual. We seem to
blend fairly well with our neighboring offices, at least as much as
possible in this situation. Probably will need some sort of exercise
caution or small craft advisory headline during the back half of the
weekend. Certainly potential for at least some swell to increase
waveheights as early as late Friday or Friday night. Stay tuned. 35

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities:monitoring potential tropical subtropical development
in gulf of mexico at end of week.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 87 70 87 69 50 30 60 40
btr 90 71 89 71 50 30 60 30
asd 88 72 87 71 50 30 60 50
msy 89 74 87 73 40 40 60 40
gpt 87 74 86 72 50 30 60 50
pql 88 71 85 70 50 30 60 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 16 mi41 min SSE 1 G 1.9 76°F 84°F1016.1 hPa (-0.0)
CARL1 22 mi41 min 76°F
FREL1 23 mi41 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 1015.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 87°F1016.3 hPa (+0.0)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 38 mi41 min E 5.1 G 6 77°F 84°F1016 hPa (+0.0)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 38 mi41 min Calm G 1 75°F 87°F1016.4 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Slidell, Slidell Airport, LA14 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1016.2 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA15 mi48 minS 410.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1015.6 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA22 mi48 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds74°F73°F97%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmNW5334NW6S5S9S7S7S5S6CalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3N3Calm3E7E10E7E8E8SE5E7SE6S4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS34SE4SE9SE7S8SE8S9S10SE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:02 AM CDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:37 PM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:01 PM CDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.20.20.20.10.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou BonFouca, Route 433, Louisiana
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Bayou BonFouca
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:38 AM CDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:30 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:47 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:37 PM CDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.