Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:06 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1014 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1014 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 041746 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Mostly zonal flow to slight ridging will stay around the area today and into Sunday morning. This will mostly suppress any rain chances today and Sunday. However the moisture advection from southeasterly flow will produce some spotty showers this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Due to the suppression from the ridge, it will help keep the showers and thunderstorms scattered at most.
Although the ridge will help suppress things, the showers and storms that do form look to have quality instability to work with over 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with. So, the some of the showers could be strong, but we do not have enough mid-level dry air or cool air aloft for a substantial wind or hail threat. Needless to say, tomorrow and Sunday will be a very typical summer day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. PoPs were adjusted slightly to account for where the short-range models are depicting shower development, but it was not much.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Most of the short-range guidance depicts an MCS coming out of SE Texas and heading east through south Louisiana Sunday night. The guidance suggests that the complex will die before entering the area as diurnally-driven stable air sets up across the area. So, at most, there might be light stratiform rain leftover from the MCS Sunday night.

Starting Monday, shortwave ridging sets back up over the area. Due to the ridging and subsequent onshore flow, we will be heating back up to start the week. The trough ejections that look to take place way north of us across the Midwest. This will keep us in quasi-zonal flow to even slight ridging throughout the week next week. The continued onshore flow and ridging will allow us to heat up to above-normal temperatures throughout the week. It looks like Thursday could be the first day where it feels like 100 degrees due to the moisture and warm air advection, so make sure it does not sneak up on you.

The end of the week is a little more uncertain when looking at the ensemble clustering. Some of the guidance suggests that we finally get a trough to dig far enough south to send a cold front by Friday and bring some rain along with it. Although that seems most probable, we are getting to that time of year where cold fronts start to not make it all the way down here and the trough ejects too far north, so although that seems the most probable now, do not be surprised if the front does not end up making it all the way down here and we stay hot and mostly dry into the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Visible satellite shows a rapidly expanding CU field across the region. These mostly MVFR decks will continue to rise as the surface warms and VFR ceilings will dominated the rest of the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possibly mid/late afternoon...mainly northwest of a KHUM to KHDC line. Fog and low stratus development tonight isn't expected to be widespread based on minimal fog last night but patchy fog possible just before sunrise. Sunday should be a near repeat of today.

MARINE
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Onshore flow is expected to continue for the next week or so as we stay on the western side of the surface high over the Atlantic. A potential frontal passage could happen on Friday, but given the tome of year and how far out it is, it is uncertain whether it makes it to the area, much less to the waters. If it does not make it far enough south, expect light onshore flow to continue for the entire forecast period, with Wednesday having the strongest winds as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure development across the central Plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 66 85 / 20 40 20 30 BTR 69 87 70 89 / 10 40 10 20 ASD 68 87 69 87 / 10 10 10 20 MSY 72 87 72 87 / 10 10 10 20 GPT 70 84 71 84 / 10 10 10 20 PQL 67 88 69 87 / 10 10 10 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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