Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:35 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 338 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - West winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest late this morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 338 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a stationary front will eventually move southeastward as a cold front today. Thundertorms along this boundary will bring the threat of locally strong winds, large hail, and higher seas to the waters. Southwesterly winds south of the front will subside and shift out of the northwest in wake of the cold frontal passage this afternoon. High pressure builds in Sunday and remains over the waters through much of next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 180803 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 303 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear, however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.

The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn't have a major impact on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered, won't depart from the NBM numbers.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end of the work week next week after this morning's rain. Unlikely to be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Earlier IFR or lower conditions have actually improved to VFR at most terminals since the 06z TAF package was issued. Only KGPT at the high end of IFR ceilings was producing flight restrictions.
Aside from the threat of TSRA over the next 3-6 hours, there remains at least some threat of IFR or lower conditions, at least briefly, through mid morning. MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR after 18z if not sooner, with VFR conditions through the end of the 06z TAF package forecast range.

MARINE
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal waters later today or this evening.

Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through much or all of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 89 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 86 69 92 69 / 60 0 0 0 MSY 85 73 90 74 / 60 0 0 0 GPT 82 69 90 70 / 80 10 0 0 PQL 84 68 92 67 / 90 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.

MS...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.

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