Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 316 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..South winds 10 knots, becoming east southeast 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters becoming choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday and Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 316 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis.. The axis of atlantic ridging will extend across our local waters through Thursday and will then shift eastward on Friday as broad low pressure moves into the southern gulf of mexico. This low is expected to move northward towards the central gulf coast this weekend, resulting in increasing southeasterly winds and building seas. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms are expected during the weekend and early next week, with small craft advisory conditions developing offshore on Saturday and near shore by Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, FL
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location: 30.28, -81.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 230834
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
434 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Flood threat increases this weekend as low pressure organizes
in the gulf of mexico and moves slowly northward...

Currently
Early morning surface analysis depicts the axis of atlantic
ridging extending across northeast florida. Meanwhile, broad low
pressure (1007 millibars) extends across the northwestern
caribbean sea, where pockets of disorganized convection were
developing. Aloft... A progressive trough exiting the mid-atlantic
coast has pushed deep-layered atlantic ridging southward to a
position just northeast of the bahamas. Meanwhile, a weakening
trough over western georgia continues to fire persistent
convection well to the northwest of our region. Also, a persistent
upper level low is spinning in place near the east texas and
southwest louisiana coasts. South-southwesterly low level flow
being forced by the weakening trough over western georgia has
developed a few showers along the florida big bend and nature
coasts, but this activity has been weakening as it approaches the
suwannee river. Overnight observations have occasionally displayed
some shallow ground fog over the suwannee valley and north
central florida, and patches of mid-level cloudiness were
scattered across the suwannee valley and north central florida.

Some high cirrus blowoff from the western georgia convection is
over the skies of interior southeast georgia. Otherwise, skies are
fair elsewhere for the first time in 10 days, which has allowed
temperatures and dewpoints to fall to the mid to upper 60s inland
and the lower 70s at the coast.

Near term today and tonight
Any patches of fog and mid level cloudiness over inland northeast
and north central florida should quickly dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Otherwise, the focus for diurnal convection today will
shift into interior southeast georgia and the western suwannee
valley as a somewhat drier air mass advects westward into
northeast and north central florida. Our local pressure gradient
will remain rather loose with the ridge axis over our region,
which will allow the atlantic and gulf coast sea breezes to
develop shortly after noon. The main forcing for convection will
be the weakening trough over georgia that will slowly pivot east-
southeastward this afternoon. South-southwesterly low level flow
will develop scattered convection along the florida big bend coast
late this morning, and this activity will gradually expand in
coverage over interior southeast georgia and the suwannee valley
as it moves very slowly northeastward. Numerous showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms are expected by the mid to late afternoon
hours over the western suwannee valley and over the
ocmulgee altamaha river basins in southeast georgia. Meanwhile,
isolated convection is expected to develop along the atlantic sea
breeze as it crosses interstate 95 early this afternoon, with
widely scattered convection expected for locations west of i-95
this afternoon. A few storms may briefly pulse over the i-75
corridor late this afternoon as the gulf and atlantic sea breezes
merge, but the main hazard with convection today will be heavy
downpours. Plenty of sunshine this morning will boost inland highs
to the upper 80s to near 90, while the early development of the
atlantic sea breeze will keep coastal highs in the low to mid 80s.

The lingering trough over central georgia may keep widely
scattered convection in place through the early to mid evening
hours over interior southeast georgia and the suwannee valley.

Otherwise, mid level cloudiness is expected to be more prevalent
overnight for locations north of the interstate 10 corridor as the
weak trough moves closer to our inland southeast georgia counties.

Convection associated with the broad low pressure center over the
northwestern caribbean will likely spread into the southern gulf
of mexico, with a cirrus shield blowing off of this activity
possibly overspreading our region from south to north after
midnight. Increasing cloudiness will thus likely prevent
significant fog formation overnight, with low level southwesterly
flow keeping lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Thursday & Thursday night... Weak high pressure ridge aloft across
the fl peninsula will extend into NE fl with slightly drier
airmass aloft, while weak surface trof will linger across south al
and south ga with deeper tropical moisture there with precipitable
water (pwat) amounts closer to 2 inches. This will set the stage
for numerous to widespread showers and storms across inland SE ga
and the suwannee river valley for the afternoon hours as atlc
coast sea breeze pushes inland and interacts with deeper moisture
inland and trof over south ga. Locally heavy rainfall is expected
with slow moving storms over inland areas with slow northward
movement with rainfall totals around an inch inland with locally
higher totals of 2-3 inches in heavy storm activity. Closer to the
se ga coast and the rest of NE fl, the slightly drier airmass will
only trigger scattered showers storms as the atlc coast sea breeze
moves inland. MAX temps will range from the lower 80s at the coast
in the onshore flow to the mid upper 80s inland.

Friday & Friday night... Weather features drift slowly n-nw and
trof lifts into north al ga and weak high pressure ridge aloft
drifts northward into SE ga, while beginning of moisture surge on
the east side of developing low pressure system in the gomex
slides up the fl peninsula into NE fl. The weak SE steering flow
and atlc coast sea breeze pushing inland will combine with some of
the deeper moisture lifting northward and will trigger numerous
showers and storms over inland NE fl and the suwannee river valley
along the i-75 corridor and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible in these areas due to heavy storms moving slowly n-nw in
the weak steering flow aloft. Elsewhere closer to the SE ga NE fl
coastal areas still expect to see scattered showers storms along
the atlc coast sea breeze as it moves inland. MAX temps will range
once again from the lower 80s along the coast to mid upper 80s
inland.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Long-range models (gfs ecmwf) actually a bit more divergent with
the 00z run as the ECMWF has stayed consistent by taking stacked
low pressure system through the central gomex and towards the
north gulf coast, while the GFS has shifted back towards the east
once again with low pressure tracking directly up the fl
peninsula. This doesn't change the overall very wet forecast
expected for the holiday weekend with numerous to widespread
showers and storms with heavy rainfall Sat Sun becoming more
diurnal in nature by Mon tue, but the consistent ECMWF westward
track does show lower model rainfall totals of 2-4", while the
more eastward GFS track leads to higher model rainfall totals of
3-6". So bottom line is localized flooding is a sure bet this
weekend and flood watch may need to be posted as a few of the ne
fl river creek basins (black creek, santa fe, st. Mary's,
suwannee) have the higher chance of reaching at least minor
flooding conditions, while the lower current river levels in SE ga
will take a bit more to reach any flood levels. Continuous rain
bands on the east side of the low pressure are expected to develop
on Saturday and continue into Sunday Monday before lingering
moisture allows convection to become more diurnal in nature by
Monday night Tuesday. Still overall too early to determine any
specifics on where the heaviest rain bands will set up until this
weekend but solid coverage of showers storms will hold MAX temps
in the lower 80s Sat sun, while more diurnal convection on Mon tue
will allow MAX temps to push back into the middle upper 80s. The
more eastward GFS solution would bring slightly more breezy windy
conditions to the area with 20-30g40 mph in the heavier rain bands
while the ECMWF solution would have weaker winds than that over
the weekend. Antecedent rainfall conditions over the next 3 days
from wed-fri focused over inland areas may produce a higher flood
threat over inland sections for the weekend.

Aviation
MVFR visibilities will continue through 12z at vqq and gnv, with
periods of ifr visibilities possible. Otherwise,VFR conditions
will prevail at the regional terminals. Widely scattered showers
will develop after 18z, mainly at inland locations. We have placed
vcsh at all terminals except for sgj due to low confidence in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Southerly surface winds
around 10 knots will develop at the terminals after 13z, with the
atlantic sea breeze pushing across sgj towards 16z, ssi towards
18z and the duval county terminals after 18z. Surface winds will
become east southeasterly following the sea breeze passage, with
speeds increasing to 10-15 knots through late afternoon.

Marine
Atlantic high pressure will extend its axis across the northeast
florida waters through Thursday and will then nudge eastward from
Thursday night through the weekend. Light southerly winds this
morning will become onshore in the near shore waters as the
atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Wind speeds and seas will remain
below caution levels on all waters through Thursday night.

Meanwhile, a broad low pressure center will take shape over
mexico's yucatan peninsula by late Thursday and will move slowly
northward into the southern gulf of mexico on Friday. Our local
pressure gradient will gradually tighten as this broad low moves
into the central gulf of mexico, resulting in southeasterly winds
increasing to caution levels of 15-20 knots by Friday afternoon.

Waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to
overspread our local waters on Friday afternoon, with
southeasterly winds expected to strengthen to small craft advisory
levels in the offshore waters on Saturday and the near shore
waters by Sunday. Seas will continue to build during the memorial
day weekend, with 6-9 foot seas offshore and 5-7 feet near shore
by Sunday.

Rip currents: an 8 second period east-southeasterly swell and
strengthening onshore winds during the afternoon hours will keep a
moderate risk in place at area beaches through Thursday. A high
risk is possible this weekend as southeasterly winds strengthen.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 88 69 86 69 50 40 80 40
ssi 82 72 82 72 20 10 30 30
jax 88 69 87 70 30 20 30 20
sgj 84 71 84 71 10 10 10 20
gnv 89 68 89 69 30 20 50 30
ocf 89 69 89 70 30 20 50 30

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson hess


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JXUF1 7 mi49 min 79°F
DMSF1 11 mi49 min 78°F
BLIF1 12 mi49 min SSE 5.1 G 6 72°F 1019.7 hPa72°F
LTJF1 15 mi49 min 72°F 70°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 17 mi49 min S 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 76°F1019.2 hPa
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 30 mi49 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 78°F1019.8 hPa
RCYF1 34 mi49 min 78°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 37 mi37 min S 4.1 G 4.1 73°F 76°F1019.2 hPa (-0.0)
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 37 mi37 min 75°F3 ft
41117 38 mi45 min 75°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 50 mi112 min Calm 69°F 1021 hPa68°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL3 mi44 minSSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds73°F71°F94%1018.6 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL10 mi44 minSE 37.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1018.9 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL10 mi62 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1019 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL15 mi1.7 hrsN 06.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1018.4 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL17 mi45 minS 410.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7SE10SE9S8S9SE9SE7E13SE14E7SE7SE7SE8S11SE9S8S7SE5S5S4S6S6S4
1 day agoSE8SE7SE11SE7SE6SE11SE14SE12S7S9S9SE12SE9SE8SE7SE6E6E8SE6SE7SE6SE4SE6E6
2 days agoS4SW4CalmNE5NE6E10NE6SE5SE7E3E6SW3N5NW5NE7NE6E7E6E7E8E8E8E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for Ortega River entrance, Florida
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Ortega River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:23 AM EDT     5.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     7.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     5.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     6.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.85.866.46.76.9776.86.46.265.85.85.86.16.46.76.96.96.86.66.36.1

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
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Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:40 AM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:19 PM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     -2.03 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.11.122.11.81.1-0.1-1.3-1.9-2.1-2.1-1.8-0.90.41.521.91.60.7-0.5-1.4-1.8-2-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.