Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oriole Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 1:27 AM CST (07:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1108 Pm Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Winds light becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1108 Pm Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis..A moderate offshore flow develops tonight in the wake of a frontal passage and continues through Wednesday, along with slightly building seas. A moderate east flow is then expected after midweek, shifting to southerly by the weekend. With moderate flow persisting, seas will continue to increase through the end of the week, reaching up to around 5 feet well offshore by late Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriole Beach, FL
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location: 30.29, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 200545 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1145 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018

Discussion See updated information below.

Land and marine update We increased rain chances just a little
from the previous forecast over interior portions of the forecast
area, and to likely coverage over much of the marine area through
the overnight hours based on the latest radar trends. 21

Aviation
06z issuance...VFR conditions prevail at the start of this taf
period with broken to overcast mid and high level cloud decks
moving overhead. MVFR ceilings will develop late tonight into
early Tuesday morning following the passage of a cold front.

Localized occurrences of ifr ceilings will also be briefly
possible. Expect scattered light shra to move eastward over
portions of the area for the next several hours. Ceilings should
scatter withVFR conditions returning by Tuesday afternoon.

Northwest to north winds 5-10 knots will prevail following
frontal passage. 21

Prev discussion issued 930 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018
discussion... See updated information for land areas below.

Update... The ongoing forecast for tonight is generally on track
and we do not anticipate making significant changes. Increased deep
layer moisture associated with an approaching shortwave trough
and surface cold front will bring a chance of rain to our region
tonight. The latest short term and high resolution model trends
support keeping the best pops mainly along and west of the i-65
corridor and perhaps near or just south of the immediate coast.

The cold front is currently making its way into southeast
mississippi and interior southwest alabama, and should continue to
move through the remainder of the area into early Tuesday morning.

Overnight lows are on track to range from the mid 40s to around
50 degrees inland, and in the lower to mid 50s near the immediate
coast. 21
prev discussion... Issued 538 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Corrected... To reference Tuesday instead of Monday.

Aviation...

00z issuance...VFR conditions will start off this TAF period with
broken mid and high level cloud cover moving over the region.

Scattered shra will move over western and southern portions of the
area. Mainly during the 01z-09z time frame, and have kept vcsh
mention in the kmob kbfm kpns terminal forecasts. A cold front
will push across the region late tonight into early Tuesday
morning, with winds turning northerly following its passage.

Ceilings may lower to MVFR and possibly localized ifr levels
early Tuesday morning, but a return toVFR is expected by Tuesday
afternoon. 21
prev discussion... Issued 358 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018
near term now through Tuesday ... A weak cold front currently draped
across the lower mississippi river valley continues to push
southeast towards our area to start the near term. Along and ahead
of this front, scattered showers bring increasing rain chances
across much of the area late this evening and overnight tonight. The
best chances remain along and west of the i-65 corridor. The front
pushes through the area overnight, bringing with it north winds and
another spell of dry and cool weather on Tuesday. While rain chances
taper off quickly behind the front, post-frontal cloud cover will
linger into the late morning hours before clearing from north to
south Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will be mild due to the
increasing moisture, with temps ranging from upper 40s across
interior SE ms and SW al to lower 50s across south-central al and
along the coast. Highs on Tuesday only reach mid to upper 50s inland
and low to mid 60s along the coast. 49
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... Generally, a
dry and somewhat cooler than normal weather pattern will persist
through the period. Surface high pressure over the midwestern
states will broaden over the southeastern states shifting
east to the eastern seaboard by Thursday night. Aloft, a flat
ridge should persist through most of the period. However, a well
reflected upper level shortwave trough is expected to propagate
eastward through the ridge. Enough upper level forcing and
moisture is projected to be associated with this feature to
produce some spotty rain shower activity late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning especially near the coast. Any shower activity
that occurs though should be light. Tuesday and Wednesday night's
lows drop into the mid to upper 30s inland and into the 40s near
the coast. Thursday nights lows should be warmer as cloud cover
thickens and expands in coverage and surface winds become more
east to east-southeasterly as a low pressure system approaches
from the west. Lows Thursday night should remain in the 40s inland
and near 50 closer to the coast. Wednesday's and Thursday's
afternoon high temperatures should range from the upper 50s to low
to mid 60s near the coast. 08
long term Friday through Monday ... Rain looks likely Friday
through Saturday. Global spectral model solutions remain somewhat
divergent in the timing and evolution of the low pressure system
expected to impact area weather beginning on Friday. The gfs
continues to keep the developing surface low over the gulf of
mexico as it moves east... The UKMET and the canadian model also
keep the surface low south. The ECMWF is the outlier, ejecting
the low northeastward faster with the supporting upper level
shortwave trough becoming negatively tilted as it swings through
our area. The ECMWF solution would produce the potential of a
period of severe weather as it tracks the surface low
northeastward across southeast mississippi and south alabama
Friday evening into Saturday night placing our southern counties
in the warm sector with ample shear and enough available
instability over the northern gulf to develop potential supercell
development. However, the strong wedge of surface high pressure
ridging south-southwestward along the eastern seaboard is
typically more resilient... Especially at night... Than models
anticipate. The ukmet, cmc and GFS forecasts seem to account for
this and keep the surface low south over the gulf waters as it
moves east. Their solution would virtually eliminate the
potential for severe weather and instead create an overrunning
precipitation situation with the associated upper level dynamics
perhaps triggering some embedded convection as well. As a result,
the forecast was tailored toward keeping the surface low over the
gulf as it tracks eastward. Another frontal system is projected
to bring another round of showers to the area Sunday into Sunday
night with model to model as well as run to run inconsistency even
worst with this feature. 08
marine... A moderate offshore flow and seas around 2 feet develop
tonight in the wake of a frontal passage and continue into
Wednesday. A moderate easterly flow then develops late this week,
shifting to southerly over the weekend as a low pressure system and
increasing rain chances approach from the west. Seas also continue
to build to around 3 to 5 feet during that period. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 9 mi39 min N 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 60°F1019.6 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 28 mi37 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 1 ft1020.1 hPa58°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 38 mi87 min SSW 1 61°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.3)
WBYA1 38 mi39 min 61°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 39 mi102 min 56°F 1020 hPa55°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 48 mi57 min SE 1 60°F 1019.6 hPa
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 48 mi39 min NNW 9.9 G 9.9 61°F 1019.8 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL11 mi4.5 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1019.8 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL13 mi34 minNW 410.00 miFair59°F51°F75%1019.8 hPa

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Last 24hr----------------NW4Calm--NE5E3NE4NE4E4S3CalmCalmSW3CalmW3CalmCalm
1 day ago----------------------------E7SE8S6S8S4CalmCalmCalmCalm--
2 days ago----------------------N3N64E5SE7S6S4SW4Calm--------

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Bend, Santa Rosa Sound, Florida
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Fishing Bend
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:19 AM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:59 PM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.60.50.50.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:28 AM CST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM CST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.60.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.80.9111.11.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.